That’s my chief complaint with Lashlee - what you have is what you got. No real improvement throughout the year from game to game.
Our defense is so unbelievably bad Jesus. At least fraud watch is over, we’re 100% confirmed now.
It’s infuriating! It’s either not being coached or he’s not learning. Thought he’d made a step up after the decision making last week wrt throwing it away more
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
Offense: 27th of 138 per play. Defense: 75th.
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is SMU. The other two rows are where SMU stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.
4 games left
Fri Nov 6vs. VTVirginia Tech (6-2)70%
Sat Nov 14vs. WAKEWake Forest (7-1)34%
Sat Nov 21at NDNotre Dame (7-1)13%
Sat Nov 28at STANStanford (4-5)90%
Percent: SMU’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where SMU stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
▲ Higher
Age 43 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
▲ Higher
His team is 6-2, outscoring opponents by 13.0 points a game · AP-ranked
▲ Higher
His 5th season at SMU
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Fans
Fan chatter
Oct 31L 27-30 at SyracuseI think falling for all of these is why some people want to fire Lashlee.SMUSMU fan
Oct 3W 25-16 vs. Boston College\*Rhett Lashlee enters the chat.SMUSMU fan
Sep 26W 34-24 vs. Missouri StateWith Lashlee’s contract, one of our billionaires is going to have to make him leave.SMUSMU fan
Earlier weeks
Sep 19L 31-41 at LouisvilleA consistent issue under Lashlee.SMUSMU fan
Sep 12W 56-10 vs. UC DavisI hope Lashlee stays with us for a long timeSMUSMU fan
Sep 7W 27-24 at Florida StateRhett Lashlee never has team ready until conference play I stgSMUSMU fan
Several stories about him this week
Fri Nov 6: Virginia Tech
63rd of 104 FBS head coaches · from several outlets and r/CFB
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2025). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
2-3 against his rivals. Just 1-3 against Sonny Dykes.
’22 L’23 L · blew a 3-pt lead’24 W · wire to wire’25 L · blew a 3-pt lead
covered the spread
25% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
1-1 50.0%ATS —
Power Program
7-8 46.7%ATS 7-7-1 15 of 15
National Program
13-6 68.4%ATS 9-9-1 19 of 19
Regional Program
18-3 85.7%ATS 9-12 21 of 21
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Signature games
4-5 vs. AP top 25 · 1-0 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’22’23’24’25’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WTC
TCU · 2024
66-42
RivalUpsetQuality opponent
WFS
Florida State · 2024
42-16
Quality opponent
WAR
Arizona · 2025
24-19
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
Signature losses
LPS
Penn State · 2024
10-38
Bowl/CFP stakes
LTC
TCU · 2023
17-34
Rival
LBC
Boston College · 2023
14-23
UpsetBowl/CFP stakes
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
Defining games during this era
From our list of the 50 most defining games of the Playoff era, ranked by how much each game mattered, not by date.
Passed more than the situation called for under Woods.
3,754 run and pass snaps at SMU, 2022–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints
SMU8.6pt#283 of 449 · a typical amount
Building the roster
Five numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His 5 ranked SMU classes of his own have averaged #65 nationally — best #31, worst #107.
2022
#82
His class
2023
#72
His class
2024
#107
His class
2025
#31
His class
2026
#32
His class
His class — he had the full signing cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
100%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 107 of 107 players. Nobody is left from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 23% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
New players each season, 2022–2026
29% of his 272 new players since 2022 came through the portal (FBS programs, same seasons: 23%). His share was 20% in 2022 and 30% in 2026.
Graded on the players who arrived and the players who left together, his portal seasons came out better than most FBS programs’ in all 5 seasons graded. our read
202212 of 59Portal grade: better than most — #15 of 131 FBS programs that season
202319 of 59Portal grade: better than most — #13 of 130 FBS programs that season
202417 of 53Portal grade: better than most — #15 of 134 FBS programs that season
202516 of 51Portal grade: better than most — #30 of 136 FBS programs that season
202615 of 50Portal grade: better than most — #18 of 136 FBS programs that season
Came through the portalNon-portal arrivalsFBS-wide share that season
Each player counts once, in the season he arrived. 2021, the first season of portal tracking here, is left off because its arrival records look incomplete (about 31 new players per FBS team, against 52 in 2022). Portal grade: the site’s position-value-weighted scoring (the same engine as the Portal Heat feed and the “Who won the portal” grade): the value of the players who came in minus the value of the ones who left, ranked against every FBS program’s grade that same season. A season with fewer than 4 transfers in and out is not graded.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
−3 lbAgainst the FBS average
Offensive linemen on his SMU rosters have averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average (2022–2026). In the three seasons before he arrived, SMU’s line averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average.
SMU2022–2026−3 lb
−10FBS avg+10lb
His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
TXTop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 64 of 92 signees (70%) across his 2022–2026 tenure, drawn from 10 states in all. Next: CA (12).
Where his signees came from, 2022–2026 (92 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
73% of his signees come from TX and its 4 border states (LA 2, AR 1).
By region
South
78
West
14
Feeder schoolDuncanville5
Roster distance from campus (Gerald J. Ford Stadium, TX)
median hometown distance
242 mi
within 100 mi
37%
within 500 mi
63%
beyond 1,000 mi
17%
102 of 107 roster players with a known hometown (95% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
The NFL pipeline
The NFL pipeline
4Drafted
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. He brought in 3 of them himself; 1 arrived under Sonny Dykes.
His recruits 3Inherited 14 roster-verified · 0 estimated
Most recent picks first
Year
Pick
Player
Pos
NFL team
Note
2026
R4.33
Matthew Hibner
Tight End
Baltimore Ravens
2025
R5.21
Elijah Roberts
Defensive Edge
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2025
R7.12
Brashard Smith
Running Back
Kansas City Chiefs
2023
R2.24
Rashee Rice
Wide Receiver
Kansas City Chiefs
recruited under Sonny Dykes
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
PPat McAfeePMS 2.0 1619 - NFL Kickoff Eve, Ian Rapoport, Miami Head Coach Mario Cristobal, Taylor McGregor, SMU Head Coach Rhett Lashlee, Darius Butler, & AJ HawkSep 8
Rhett Lashlee raised SMU from Regional Program I to National Program I.
+13.8 pts over 5 seasons · top 2% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
5th-best SMU tenure of 18 by the numbers.
Followed Sonny Dykes (2018–2021).
System Shift, on arrival
swipe to see every season
Season
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Trend
Record & result
Record
7-6
11-3
11-3
9-4
6-2
Postseason
L bowl
L bowl
CFP loss
W bowl
—
Coordinators
OC
Casey Woods
Casey Woods / Jonathan Brewer / Rob Likens
Casey Woods / Garin Justice / Rob Likens
Casey Woods / Garin Justice / Rob Likens
Garin Justice / Rob Likens
DC
Scott Symons
Scott Symons
Maurice Crum Jr. / Scott Symons / Rickey Hunley Jr.
Maurice Crum Jr. / Scott Symons / Rickey Hunley Jr.
Maurice Crum Jr. / Rickey Hunley Jr.
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
78
88
67
90
87
Defense
10
95
97
89
42
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
49.2
39.6
44.5
54.1
47.0
Red-zone pass%
41.1
35.0
32.8
44.2
37.5
4th-down go%opp. territory
51.1
33.3
21.6
22.9
50.0
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+23.6 pts
#25 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
+16.4 pts
#41 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Who they bring in
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 242 lbs
across 78 of 97 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+6.9 lbs
#53 of 255 · top quarter
Avg. class year
Jr
#73 of 255 · middle half
Avg. portal rating
3.1★
rated arrivals only
Top states: TX (30), FL (11), GA (11), CA (3), CO (3)
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
PJ Williams On3 modeled · $1,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
58.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
58.8
position-weighted
Net
-0.1
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Tyler Van Dyke (QB) from Wisconsin
Biggest loss: Tanner Mordecai (QB) to Wisconsin
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Casey Woods → Casey Woods / Jonathan Brewer (co) / Rob Likens (co) · 2023
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 49.2% → 39.6% (-9.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 42% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Casey Woods / Jonathan Brewer (co) / Rob Likens (co) → Casey Woods / Garin Justice (co) / Rob Likens (co) · 2024
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 39.6% → 44.5% (+4.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 92% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 54.1% → 47.0% (-7.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 57% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Scott Symons → Maurice Crum Jr. (co) / Scott Symons / Rickey Hunley Jr. (co) · 2024The defense leveled up
2-season window either side.
DC: Maurice Crum Jr. (co) / Scott Symons / Rickey Hunley Jr. (co) → Maurice Crum Jr. (co) / Rickey Hunley Jr. (co) · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Athlete via the portal
25%
#17 of 146 stints
Buys D-line via the portal
73%
#24 of 239 stints
Postseason detail2022: Lost to BYU 23-24 New Mexico Bowl2023: Lost to Boston College 14-23 Wasabi Fenway Bowl2024: Lost to Penn State 10-38 College Football Playoff First Round Game Presented by Allstate2025: Beat Arizona 24-19 Trust & Will Holiday Bowl
AI Narratives — “SMU's Rise Into Dynasty Territory” and 19 more on the team page.
44-18
All-time wins
Wins at programs this site tracks, 1936–present — one consistent count for every coach, not each program’s own historically reported total.
The data leans positive: every conclusive reading points the same way.
Raised the program
SM+13.8 pts at SMU · #138 of 1290 · top quarter
Beat his talent
Offense vs. talent
+23.6 pts
#25 of 208 · top quarter · 4 covered seasons
Defense vs. talent
+16.4 pts
#41 of 208 · top quarter · 4 covered seasons
His own effect, isolated?
Offense marginal impact
+0.43
not distinguishable from zero
Defense marginal impact
+0.27
not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coordinator years
Offensive coordinator across 4 programs, 5 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.
How to read this. Coordinator seasons come from our coordinator career records; head-coaching-era seasons are the same unit's FBS-relative percentile for those years, regardless of who coached it, read directly from the staff assignments record. A role change (a “hinge”) is a fact, never a performance verdict — only the season-by-season data itself is colored by outcome.