Ohio beats Jacksonville State 29-27 in 2 overtimes

Team pages: Jacksonville State · Ohio

Jacksonville State1-227
Ohio1-129Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Peden Stadium, Athens, Ohio · Crowd 21,037ESPN+

Ohio beat Jacksonville State 29-27 in 2 overtimes.

We had Ohio favored. It won.

Next: Jacksonville State beat Georgia Southern 31-27, Sat Sep 19

Next: Ohio lost to South Alabama 41-36, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Farrington 3-yd run (2OT). Ohio went from 33% to 65% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Ohio a 64% chance, and the closing betting line (Ohio was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.

82-yard TD passJacksonville State · Q2 14:36TargetingQ2 12:39Kickoff return TDQ2 0:44Blocked field goalQ2 0:06
Last play we haveOhio 29-27 Jacksonville StatePlay-by-play ends earlyMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q41OT2OT40% at halfOhioLowest 14%Playsend1−22Scores82-yard TD passTargetingKickoff return TDBlocked field goal
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT40% at halfOhioLowest 14%Playsend1Scores82-yard TD passTargetingKickoff return TDBlocked field goal
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q41OT2OT60% at halfOhioHigh 86%Playsend1+22Scores82-yard TD passTargetingKickoff return TDBlocked field goal
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT60% at halfOhioHigh 86%Playsend1Scores82-yard TD passTargetingKickoff return TDBlocked field goal

The three plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 4:54Creel 8-yd TD run, Jacksonville State goes ahead 7-0Ohio 57% → 35% (−22)
  2. 22OTFarrington 3-yd runOhio 33% → 65% (+32)
  3. 32OTCreel 7-yd runOhio 65% → 96% (+31)

The three plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 4:54Creel 8-yd TD run, Jacksonville State goes ahead 7-0Jacksonville State 43% → 65% (+22)
  2. 22OTFarrington 3-yd runJacksonville State 67% → 35% (−32)
  3. 32OTCreel 7-yd runJacksonville State 35% → 4% (−31)
Ohio’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Ohio -1.5), at 62% for Ohio (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Ohio scored on 4 of its 12 drives; Jacksonville State on 5 of its 13.

Ohio’s drives are teal, Jacksonville State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Ohio: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntJacksonville State: Touchdown, from 88 yards out to 0TouchdownOhio: Punt, from 69 yards out to 58PuntJacksonville State: Punt, from 94 yards out to 86PuntOhio: Punt, from 57 yards out to 54PuntQ2Jacksonville State: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownOhio: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownJacksonville State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 4Field goalOhio: Kickoff Return returned for a touchdown, from 98 yards out to 0Kickoff Return TDJacksonville State: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 62FumbleOhio: Blocked field goal, from 38 yards out to 29Blocked FGQ3Jacksonville State: Touchdown, from 73 yards out to 0TouchdownOhio: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 5Field goalQ4Jacksonville State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 47PuntOhio: Touchdown, from 90 yards out to 0TouchdownJacksonville State: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 20Missed FGOTJacksonville State: Turned over on downs, from 25 yards out to 16DownsOhio: Blocked field goal, from 25 yards out to 24Blocked FGOTOhio: Field goal, from 25 yards out to 25Field goalJacksonville State: Field goal, from 25 yards out to 10Field goalOTJacksonville State: 2Pt Pass Failed, from 3 yards out to 32Pt Pass FailedOhio: 2Pt Pass Failed, from 3 yards out to 32Pt Pass FailedOTOhio: Uncategorized, from 3 yards out to 3UncategorizedJacksonville State: Penalty, from 3 yards out to 8PenaltyJacksonville State: 2Pt Pass Failed, from 8 yards out to 82Pt Pass Failed

From Jacksonville State’s side

Jacksonville State’s best moment: Rippa 28-yd field goal, ties it 27-27 (2OT). It lifted Jacksonville State’s win chance by 27 points.

The loudest stretch

Fans were at their loudest with the game on the line.

  1. early
  2. middle
  3. late
  4. final stretch
How we know

We look at when the most different fans were posting during the game thread, then name the part of the game it falls in. Only threads with a clear peak and enough fans get a word.

The winner fell to 14%.

What it cost

Jacksonville State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

Jacksonville State · lost1% → ▼0%
Ohio · won0% → 0%

Win the conference

Jacksonville State · lost20% → ▼18%20%▼ 18%
Ohio · won7% → 7%7%

Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Ohio 29, Jacksonville State 27

Ohio covered −1.5 by 0.5. The total, 56, went over 48.5.

Jacksonville StateOhioTotal yardsJacksonville State 447Ohio 262447262Passing yardsJacksonville State 286Ohio 9728697Rushing yardsJacksonville State 161Ohio 165161165First downsJacksonville State 22Ohio 172217TurnoversJacksonville State 1Ohio 010Time of possessionJacksonville State 28:25Ohio 31:3528:2531:35
Team totalsJacksonville StateOhio
Total yards447262
Passing20 of 26, 286 yds13 of 20, 97 yds
Rushing46 for 161 yds46 for 165 yds
First downs2217
Third down9 of 159 of 17
Fourth down1 of 21 of 1
Turnovers10
Penalties5 for 40 yds3 for 25 yds
Time of possession28:2531:35

Jacksonville State leaders

  • Passing Caden Creel 18 of 24, 265 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Caden Creel 29 for 120 yds, 1 TD; Khristian Lando 8 for 16 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Luke Gilbert 1 for 82 yds, 1 TD; Deondre Johnson 4 for 60 yds

Ohio leaders

  • Passing Matt Vezza 10 of 12, 80 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Matt Vezza 12 for 67 yds; Duncan Brune 18 for 66 yds
  • Receiving Riley Neer 4 for 38 yds, 1 TD; Duncan Brune 2 for 23 yds

Rain for part of the game

76° at kickoff · 0.1 in of rain by radar over the stadium

September game-day temperatures at Peden Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4OTOhio favoredJacksonville State favored73%Win chanceOhioRaininches per 10 min0.1 inWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4OTOhio favoredJacksonville State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Overtime9:42 p.m.
Jacksonville State 24, Ohio 27 · Ohio 65% to win
rain 0.01 in per 10 minutes · 73°
Farrington 3-yd run

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Albany airport, 10 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Jacksonville State · 1-1

Rated 66th in our preseason ratings, 69th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 49-7 vs Eastern Kentucky #169 of 668

won by 42 as a 22.5-point favorite

Jacksonville State won 49-7 vs Eastern Kentucky. Chance to win started at 96%, low 94%, high better than 99%.

L 7-33 @ North Dakota State #80 of 668

lost by 26 as a 6.5-point underdog

Jacksonville State lost 7-33 at North Dakota State. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 28%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Ohio · 9-4

Rated 50th in our preseason ratings, 48th now.

Three straight wins, capped by a 7-point win over UNLV as a 6.5-point underdog.

W 17-10 vs UNLV #65 of 667

won by 7 as a 6.5-point underdog

Ohio won 17-10 vs UNLV. Chance to win started at 38%, low 29%, high better than 99%.

W 31-26 @ Buffalo #146 of 667

won by 5 as a 7.5-point favorite

Ohio won 31-26 at Buffalo. Chance to win started at 68%, low 56%, high better than 99%.

W 42-14 vs Massachusetts #263 of 667

won by 28 as a 34.5-point favorite

Ohio won 42-14 vs Massachusetts. Chance to win started at 98%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

L 13-17 @ Western Michigan #94 of 667

lost by 4 as a 1.5-point underdog

Ohio lost 13-17 at Western Michigan. Chance to win started at 45%, low under 1%, high 63%.

W 24-20 vs Miami (OH) #81 of 667

won by 4 as a 2.5-point favorite

Ohio won 24-20 vs Miami (OH). Chance to win started at 63%, low 29%, high 99%.

W 28-21 @ Eastern Michigan #167 of 667

won by 7 as a 13.5-point favorite

Ohio won 28-21 at Eastern Michigan. Chance to win started at 77%, low 40%, high 98%.

W 48-21 vs Northern Illinois #164 of 667

won by 27 as an 11.5-point favorite

Ohio won 48-21 vs Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 85%, low 84%, high better than 99%.

L 14-20 @ Ball State #159 of 667

lost by 6 as a 14.5-point favorite

Ohio lost 14-20 at Ball State. Chance to win started at 86%, low under 1%, high 97%.

W 35-20 vs Bowling Green #105 of 667

won by 15 as a 7.5-point favorite

Ohio won 35-20 vs Bowling Green. Chance to win started at 71%, low 71%, high better than 99%.

W 52-35 vs Gardner-Webb #167 of 667

won by 17 as a 29.5-point favorite

Ohio won 52-35 vs Gardner-Webb. Chance to win started at 98%, low 88%, high better than 99%.

L 9-37 @ Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 667

lost by 28 as a 28.5-point underdog

Ohio lost 9-37 at Ohio State. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 4%.

W 17-10 vs West Virginia #56 of 667

won by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog

Ohio won 17-10 vs West Virginia. Chance to win started at 47%, low 24%, high better than 99%.

L 31-34 @ Rutgers #58 of 667

lost by 3 as a 15.5-point underdog

Week by week

Ohio

  • Wk 1Lat Nebraska21-49

Jacksonville State

Wk 1: L 7-33 at North Dakota State▼26North Dakota StateWk 1: W 49-7 vs Eastern Kentucky▲42Eastern Kentucky
  • Wk 1Lat North Dakota State7-33
  • Wk 1Wvs Eastern Kentucky49-7

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Ohio’s explosive plays against Jacksonville State, 75 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Ohio’s explosive plays against Jacksonville State’s defense

    75 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Ohio offense, 11th percentile · Jacksonville State defense, 86th

  2. Ohio’s rushing EPA against Jacksonville State’s defense

    58 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Ohio offense, 88th percentile · Jacksonville State defense, 30th

  3. Ohio’s success rate against Jacksonville State’s defense

    38 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Ohio offense, 75th percentile · Jacksonville State defense, 37th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Jacksonville StateOhio
EPA/play, offense
Jacksonville State · 61Ohio · 68
EPA/play, defense
Jacksonville State · 44Ohio · 47
Success rate, offense
Jacksonville State · 73Ohio · 75
Success rate, defense
Jacksonville State · 37Ohio · 61
Explosive-play rate, offense
Jacksonville State · 35Ohio · 11
Explosive-play rate, defense
Jacksonville Sta…Ohio · 34
Rush EPA, offense
Jacksonville State · 47Ohio · 88
Rush EPA, defense
Jacksonville State · 30Ohio · 69
Pass EPA, offense
Jacksonville State · 72Ohio · 42
Pass EPA, defense
Jacksonville State · 63Ohio · 26

The series

Ohio leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2024 · Ohio won the last meeting

  • 2024 · neutral siteOhio 30-27Ohio won 30-27 vs Jacksonville State. Chance to win started at 68%, low 59%, high 99%.

Each line is Ohio’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Ohio fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (56th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 64%
  • Line · 55%
  • Ohio fans · 56th
  • Jacksonville State fans · 13th

Ohio favored by 1.5 · Total 48.5

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Jacksonville State.

opened −2.5now −1.5

Spread: −2.5 → −1.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm, with rain. Feels like 79° at kickoff.

Jacksonville State at Ohio · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Peden Stadium, Athens

  • 79°feels like at kickoff
  • 0.01 inrain at kickoff
  • 93weather score, Comfortable
  • Tiedfor the best of the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's seven kickoff times. At Peden Stadium that day, a 2 pm kickoff would have scored 65, against 93 at 6 pm.

  • noon: 72, Rough
  • 1 pm: 71, Rough
  • 2 pm: 65, Rough
  • 3:30 pm: 79, Mixed
  • 6 pm: 93, Comfortable (this game)
  • 7 pm: 92, Comfortable
  • 7:30 pm: 91, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Ohio is worth +5.2 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 68th percentile.

77% at home, 47% on the road against FBS opponents (30-9 home, 22-25 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.8 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 431 miles to get here.

Where next