Sam Houston at Jacksonville State
Sam Houston (1‑7) travels to Jacksonville State (6‑2), with Jacksonville State favored by 16.5. The model gives Jacksonville State a 78% shot. Sam Houston’s passing offense is at the 13th percentile; Jacksonville State’s pass defense is at the 89th.
How they got here
Last three games
Sam Houston · 1-7
Rated 165th in our preseason ratings, 197th now.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
Jacksonville State · 6-2
Rated 66th in our preseason ratings, 72nd now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
L 27-29 @ Ohio No. 54 of 668 teams
lost by 2 as a 1.5-point underdog
Biggest mismatch: Sam Houston’s passing EPA against Jacksonville State, 76 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Sam Houston’s passing EPA against Jacksonville State’s defense
Sam Houston offense, 13th percentile · Jacksonville State defense, 89th
Sam Houston’s EPA/play against Jacksonville State’s defense
Sam Houston offense, 5th percentile · Jacksonville State defense, 55th
Jacksonville State’s explosive plays against Sam Houston’s defense
Jacksonville State offense, 34th percentile · Sam Houston defense, 55th
What’s at stake
Sam Houston
- Sam Houston is still shaking off a 21-point loss.
Jacksonville State
- Jacksonville State controls first place in Conference USA with 3 games left — 37% to win it with a win here, 28% with a loss.
- Jacksonville State is coming off a 24-point win.
The series
Jacksonville State leads the series 4-2
6 meetings since 2014 · Jacksonville State has won the last 3
- 2025 · neutral siteJacksonville State 29-27
- 2024Jacksonville State 21-11
- 2023Jacksonville State 35-28
- 2021Sam Houston 42-7
- 2015Jacksonville State 62-10
Each line is Jacksonville State’s chance to win through that meeting. Jacksonville State is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Sam Houston
The chipBearkat fans don't carry a grudge so much as a quiet 'we were just there' — a 2020 ring and a 2024 bowl trophy that no 2-10 season can take back. They know what this program is capable of because they watched it happen.
What this game touches
Keeler leaves, and the bottom drops out. K.C. Keeler took the Bearkats from FCS champions (2020) to a 10-3 FBS season and the program's first bowl win (Georgia Southern, New Orleans Bowl, 2024) — then left for Temple. First-year successor Phil Longo went 2-10 (1-7 Conference USA) amid a public culture crisis. The fanbase learned, fast, how much of the rocket ride was one man.
Jacksonville State
The chip · vs the national mediaFans hear the program dismissed as an FCS refugee that wandered up a level — never mind two CUSA title-game trips and three straight nine-win seasons. They've stopped waiting for the respect and started just stacking the wins.
What this game touches
Losing Rich Rodriguez right as it got good. Rich Rodriguez built the FBS jump into instant winning, then bolted back to West Virginia after 2024 — the kind of departure that usually resets a young program. The quiet fear in Jacksonville: that a small school is just a launchpad, a place coaches and players use on the way to somewhere bigger.
Best players
Sam Houston
- Dean Ford (LB) · 48 tackles
- Landyn Locke (QB) · 1,653 passing yards
- Brian Bates Jr. (LB) · 36 tackles
Jacksonville State
- Caleb Nix (S) · 52 tackles
- Caden Creel (QB) · 1,746 passing yards
- Morven Joseph (LB) · 38 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Landyn Locke (QB) — Sam Houston’s leading passer (1,653 passing yards) takes on Jacksonville State’s pass defense (89th percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 2.5 points toward Jacksonville State since opening (−14 → −16.5).
The betting line, and the fans
Sam Houston fans are in a better mood than Jacksonville State fans (82nd percentile vs 57th among FBS fanbases), even with Jacksonville State favored.
- Model · 78%
- Line · 91%
- Jacksonville State fans · 57th
- Sam Houston fans · 82nd
Jacksonville State favored by 16.5 · Total 48.5
Jacksonville State by 16.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Jacksonville State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 275 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
Home field
Jacksonville State is worth +7.2 points (±5.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 94th percentile.
86% at home, 43% on the road against FBS opponents (18-3 home, 12-16 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.8 at home vs. away over 55 games — inside the ±7.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 610 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Jacksonville State
- Wk 3Wvs Georgia Southern31-27
- Wk 4Wvs Middle Tennessee23-13
- Wk 6Wat Kennesaw State27-26
- Wk 7Wvs Florida International27-24
- Wk 9Wat New Mexico State24-0
Sam Houston
- Wk 4Lat Texas Tech14-49
- Wk 6Lat Liberty3-35
- Wk 7Lvs Western Kentucky3-16
- Wk 8Lvs New Mexico State24-30
- Wk 9Lat Missouri State3-24
Power rating by week
Jacksonville State is rated 10.0 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2.5 points toward Jacksonville State.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −14 → −16.5 · Total: 47.5 → 48.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Jacksonville State1st4-0
- Sam Houston10th0-4
Last meeting in our History pages
- Jacksonville State 29, Sam Houston 27Oct 9, 2025
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2023.