CFB Zeitgeist Score
37
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 94th percentile.
Johnathan Arceneaux
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
267 RUSH YDS · 2 RUSH TD · 40 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Fresno State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Running back · Fresno State
Returning around him
- 17% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- Transfer portal: +3 net (13 in / 10 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Fresno State · Last season: 9-4 · Talent rank #90 · 2026 recruiting class #103
RB · FRESNO STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Johnathan Arceneaux
- 4
- 5-10 | 193 lb
- Los Angeles, CA
Heisman Heat
#3116
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2023–2025+1383%
Up 1383% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Fresno State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-star | 0.8478 | No. 1250 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8478
#1250 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Johnathan Arceneaux
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Johnathan Arceneaux
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 11g
267Rush yards
40Carries
2Rush TDs
Per game
24.3Rush yards
4Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
315.5Rush yards
47Carries
2Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 267): needs 241.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 267): needs 366.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 267): needs 616.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 4/game over remaining 2.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 6.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 9/game over remaining 2.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Johnathan Arceneaux's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Fresno State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Efficient runner against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
40 53rd
YDS
267 61st
YPC
6.7 91st
TD
2 67th
Receiving
REC
1 16th
YDS
12 21st
YPR
12.0 88th
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 7-31@ Kansas | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wk 1 | W 42-14vs Georgia Southern | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 2 | W 36-27@ Oregon State | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 3 | W 56-7vs Southern | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 1 | 12 | |
| Wk 7 | L 21-49@ Colorado State | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 | |
| Wk 9 | L 0-23vs San Diego State | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wk 10 | W 30-7@ Boise State | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 12 | W 24-3vs Wyoming | 4 | 70 | 17.5 | 1 | 58 | Season-high 70 yds |
| Wk 13 | L 17-28vs Utah State | 4 | 55 | 13.8 | 0 | 44 | |
| Wk 14 | W 41-14@ San José State | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 | 9 | |
| Bowl | W 18-3vs Miami (OH) | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 | 8 | |
| Total | 40 | 267 | 5.7 | 2 | 58 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Fresno State9-4HC: Jeff Tedford · Pass-leaning
2025Fresno State9-4HC: Matt Entz · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fresno State | 40 | 267 | 6.7 | 2 | -- |
| 2023 | Fresno State | 8 | 18 | 2.2 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 48 | 285 | 5.9 | 2 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fresno State | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | Fresno State | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 267 | #286/735 | 61st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 2 | #247/739 | 67th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 6.7 | #67/735 | 91st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 1 | #467/552 | 16th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 12 | #435/548 | 21st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.13 | #156/362 | 57th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 33 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 6.4% | #471/738 | 36th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 58 | #112/733 | 85th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 40 | #345/739 | 53rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 12 | #365/540 | 33rd pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 12.0 | #65/548 | 88th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 10.7% | #471/738 | 36th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 10.4% | #340/738 | 54th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 8.6% | #398/738 | 46th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 4.6% | #574/738 | 22nd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 2.4% | #578/738 | 22nd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 2.0% | #612/738 | 17th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 1.1% | #495/738 | 33rd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 33.0 | 6.9 | 0.3 |
| Road5g | 13.8 | 4.1 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins7g | 30.0 | 6.9 | 0.3 |
| Losses4g | 14.2 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 14.2 | 4.4 | 0.2 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 36.4 | 7.1 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
37Mid-pack
Elite: yards / carry (94th). Concern: carries (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.13Low (p25–p50) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Johnathan ArceneauxFresno StateJordan BrunsonMiami (OH)· 55% simJeremiah CobbAuburn· 49% simQuinton JacksonRice· 49% sim
Yards / carry
Long run
Rush TDs
Rush yards
Rec yards
Receptions
Carries
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Chris McMillian’s 2025 season.
Chris McMillian
84%match
#2
Demond Claiborne
NFL Rd 6
78%
#3
Rodney Hammond Jr.
77%
#4
Daijun Edwards
73%
#5
Tae Meadows
75%
Matches Chris on
EPA / carry (adj)
Weight
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Differs from Chris on
Class year (higher)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Eli Sanders's junior season at Iowa State (2023).
Eli Sanders
78%match
#2
Nay'Quan Wright
75%
#3
Dewayne Coleman
73%
#4
Trelon Smith
74%
#5
Tae Meadows
74%
Matches Eli on
Yards / carry
Receiving share
Rush TD rate
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Matt Entz
Pass share
44.2%
373 pass / 471 run
Plays / game
64.9
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.4%
282 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
2 coaches2023
Jeff Tedford
Fresno State
2025era →
Matt Entz
Fresno State
Coaching transition mid-career: Jeff Tedford → Matt Entz. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownLos Angeles, CA
Height5'10"
Weight193 lb
Class4
PositionRB
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamFresno State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Fresno State | RB4 | #3116 | #3136 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2023 | Fresno State | RB4 | #2634 | #2521 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2022 | Fresno State | RB4 | #1893 | #1548 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2021 | Fresno State | RB4 | #3092 | #2864 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fresno State | Mountain West | RB | 4 | 5-10 | 193 lb | Los Angeles, CA |
| 2024 | Fresno State | Mountain West | RB | 4 | 5-10 | 193 lb | Los Angeles, CA |
| 2023 | Fresno State | Mountain West | RB | 4 | 5-10 | 193 lb | Los Angeles, CA |
| 2022 | Fresno State | Mountain West | RB | 4 | 5-10 | 193 lb | Los Angeles, CA |
| 2021 | Fresno State | Mountain West | RB | 4 | 5-10 | 193 lb | Los Angeles, CA |