The Zeitgeist List · Coaching

Matt Entz

Fresno State, 2025–nowFR2025now
4-3This season at Fresno State
13-7FBS career

Also coached below FBS: North Dakota State 2019–23

Program lift
Year 2
graded once a job reaches 3 seasons
See Fresno State’s full coaching history →

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 1-0

2025Arizona BowlW 18-3
Part one · This week

As of Fri Oct 23

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 3% → 0.9% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. Oregon State

No game this week · Sat Oct 31, 12 am ET USA Network · Oregon State is 5-2 · First meeting between Entz and JaMarcus Shephard as head coaches · Fresno State’s chance to win: 34% (the site’s model)

1 headline named him in the last 7 days

82nd of 138 FBS head coaches

The headlines, Oct 18–23

What they are talking about, week and season

Fans are feeling good about Fresno State

MCS Anyone receive another updated revision,financial aid package? My MCS award amount updated and is lower than previously estimated. I'm assuming it'll be disbursed soon. Hopefully,next week.

Winter Intermission classes Does anyone know the price of the classes? I want to take 2 but I want to know the cost first.

Spring 27 Spring will be my second semester and I am wondering if the classes are typically offered different days or different times from what is offered in the Fall semester . Some of my major classes interfered with my commute time this semester so I’m hoping it’ll be better next semester ! Thanks

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 60th of 138 per play. Defense: 42nd.

Offense, per play60thOffense, starting field position13thDefense, per play42ndDefense, opponents' starting field position8thWorstBest
Offense, per play60th of 138Offense, starting field position13th of 138Defense, per play42nd of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position8th of 138WorstBest
Through 7 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Fresno State. The other two rows are where Fresno State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Oct 31vs. Oregon State (5-2)USA Network34%
  2. Sat Nov 7at Utah State (2-4)USA Network63%
  3. Sat Nov 14at Texas State (3-3)The CW28%
  4. Sat Nov 21vs. Colorado State (2-4)The CW78%

Percent: Fresno State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Fresno State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

56th62nd68thPreseason62ndUSC L 0-39USC L 0-39L 0-39USC62ndSacramento State W 49-3Sacramento State W 49-3W 49-3Sacramento St…61stSan José State W 26-10San José State W 26-10W 26-10San José State62ndRice W 38-24Rice W 38-24W 38-24Rice62ndWashington State W 26-6Washington State W 26-6W 26-6Washington St…62ndBoise State L 31-38Boise State L 31-38L 31-38Boise State61stSan Diego State L 23-26San Diego State L 23-26L 23-26San Diego Sta…63rdBye64th
  1. Oct 12–18L 23-26 at San Diego State0 headlines
  2. Oct 5–11L 31-38 vs. Boise State2 headlines · 70th of 138
  3. Sep 28–Oct 4W 26-6 at Washington State1 headline · 82nd of 138
  4. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 38-24 vs. Rice0 headlines
  5. Sep 14–20 · rebuiltW 26-10 at San José State0 headlines
  6. Sep 7–13 · rebuiltW 49-3 vs. Sacramento State3 headlines · 73rd of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Fresno State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Fresno State

6 stories about him in the last 30 days

Bye week. Next: Oregon State, Sat Oct 31

from 3 outlets and r/CFB

Oct 1: 1Oct 4: 1Oct 5: 1Oct 6: 1Oct 11: 1Oct 18: 1W 38-24 vs RiceWW 26-6 at Washington StateWL 31-38 vs Boise StateLL 23-26 at San Diego StateLSep 24Oct 23Most in a day: 1
Oct 1: 1Oct 4: 1Oct 5: 1Oct 6: 1Oct 11: 1Oct 18: 1W 38-24 vs RiceWW 26-6 at Washington StateWL 31-38 vs Boise StateLL 23-26 at San Diego StateLSep 24Oct 23Most in a day: 1
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.

Fresno State coach Matt Entz calls Boise State the ‘golden standard’ ahead of rivalry game

Sports Illustrated Oct 6 · 1 outlet

What they’re talking about

Press conference and quotes4 stories

26 stories about him this season

from 11 outlets and r/CFB

Aug 1 to Aug 7: 4Aug 29 to Sep 4: 10Sep 5 to Sep 11: 4Sep 12 to Sep 18: 1Sep 19 to Sep 25: 1Sep 26 to Oct 2: 1Oct 3 to Oct 9: 3Oct 10 to Oct 16: 1Oct 17 to Oct 23: 1L 0-39 at USCLW 49-3 vs Sacramento StateWW 26-10 at San José StateWW 38-24 vs RiceWW 26-6 at Washington StateWL 31-38 vs Boise StateLL 23-26 at San Diego StateLAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 10
Aug 1 to Aug 7: 4Aug 29 to Sep 4: 10Sep 5 to Sep 11: 4Sep 12 to Sep 18: 1Sep 19 to Sep 25: 1Sep 26 to Oct 2: 1Oct 3 to Oct 9: 3Oct 10 to Oct 16: 1Oct 17 to Oct 23: 1L 0-39 at USCLW 49-3 vs Sacramento StateWW 26-10 at San José StateWW 38-24 vs RiceWW 26-6 at Washington StateWL 31-38 vs Boise StateLL 23-26 at San Diego StateLAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 10
Gold: stories about him each week. W and L: his games. Counted from Aug 1, when tracking began.

Matt Entz has big plans for Fresno State going into USC game

Trojans Wire +2 Sep 1 · 3 outlets

All 3 articles
Trojans WireMatt Entz has big plans for Fresno State going into USC gameYahoo SportsMatt Entz has big plans for Fresno State going into USC gameUSA TodayMatt Entz has big plans for Fresno State going into USC game

What they’re talking about

Press conference and quotes11 stories
Quarterback and depth chart3 stories
Game preview2 stories
Injuries2 stories

22 stories about him across 2 seasons

2025: 12026: 21Fresno State20252026Most in a year: 21
2025: 12026: 21Fresno State20252026Most in a year: 21
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2025). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.

Could another school hire him? What has he said?

Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Oct 23.

In his own words

They [defensive adjustments] weren’t good enough. We need to get better
Fscollegian · · the day of Fresno State's 2026 game against Boise State
See every quote →
Every quote, back to August 2026

In his own words (11)

They [defensive adjustments] weren’t good enough. We need to get better
Fscollegianthe day of Fresno State's 2026 game against Boise State
He’s an awesome kid, a great leader
Fscollegianthe day of the 38-24 game
I thought as the game went on, we adapted to the speed, to the tempo, to the system that they were running
Fscollegianthe day of the 38-24 game
Football is a different sport
Fscollegian4 days before the Sacramento State game
We got behind the chains
Fscollegianthe day of the 0-39 opener
The minute we get over the Grapevine, we’re gonna think about going 1-0 next week
Fscollegianthe day of the 0-39 opener
I’m proud of both of them
Fscollegian2 days before the opener
Khristian Martin is a wonderful young man but Mandal’s ability to get us in and out of place and always making the right calls
Fscollegian5 days before the opener
He [Mandal] got healthy and he went through different surgeries and what not
Fscollegian5 days before the opener
He [Mandal] is very intentional about his actions in being a quarterback. And he told me in the Spring when he was kind of coming off of his injury, ‘Coach I want to be the starter, I’m going to do everything I can.
Fscollegian5 days before the opener
It was an open competition that went on a bit longer, the quarterbacks have known for a long time now but it’s great to see how they’ve responded. It was very competitive and that was part of the reason why the decision was kind of prolonged, because I wasn’t necessarily 100% sure.
Fscollegian5 days before the opener
Part two · The hire

Hires into jobs like this

Hired into 31–31, National Program II. Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.

Of the 5 closest comps, 3 left the program higher than he found it and 1 left it lower. Median stay: 5 seasons; 2 left mid-season.
Every coach hired into a National Program II job since 1990 (73): typically -0.8 after year 1, -0.8 after year 2.
band ends: fewer than 15 hires still in the job+12+8+4what he inherited-4hiredyr 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 6yr 7yr 8Sarkisian: +5 vs. inheritedTaggart: +0 vs. inheritedFedora: +2.6 vs. inheritedScott: -2.9 vs. inheritedStoops: +4.9 vs. inheritedEntz: -0.6 vs. inherited✕ Sarkisian +5✕ Stoops +4.9▏ Fedora +2.6▏ Taggart +0Entz -0.6▏ Scott -2.9
1Steve Sarkisian →
→ Washington, 2009
5–7 · 7–6 · 7–6 · 7–6 · 8–4
5 seasons · left mid-season
+5.0 vs. what he inherited
2Willie Taggart →
→ South Florida, 2013
2–10 · 4–8 · 8–5 · 10–2
4 seasons
+0.0 vs. what he inherited
3Larry Fedora →
→ Southern Miss, 2008
7–6 · 7–6 · 8–5 · 12–2
4 seasons
+2.6 vs. what he inherited
4Brad Scott →
→ South Carolina, 1994
7–5 · 4–6 · 6–5 · 5–6 · 1–10
5 seasons
-2.9 vs. what he inherited
5Mike Stoops →
→ Arizona, 2004
3–8 · 3–8 · 6–6 · 5–7 · 8–5 · 8–5 · 7–6 · 1–5
8 seasons · left mid-season
+4.9 vs. what he inherited
Résumé
Previous stops: North Dakota State (2019–2023)
No single prior tenure of 4+ seasons to profile.
The job he took
Followed Tim Skipper (2024–2024), after the season
6–7
Program was sliding in the 2022–2024 run-up.
A National Program II job.
Rivalry record so far
Milk Can vs. Boise State1–1
Old Oil Can vs. San Diego State0–2
How new coaches start here
  • Tim Skipper20246–7-0.9
  • Kalen DeBoer20203–3-2.1
  • Jeff Tedford201710–4+3.0
  • Eric Kiesau20160–4-4.1
  • Tim DeRuyter20129–4+2.8
  • Pat Hill19976–6-0.6
  • Bob Padilla19783–8-2.2
  • Jim Sweeney19765–6+2.3

Poach watch

This winter

7%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled36th-highest of 137 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 4-3, outscoring opponents by 6.7 points a game
  • ▲ Higher
    Paid $1.1 million in 2025, the 29th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Part three · The career

Coaching career

2025–now
Fresno State
too new to grade yet

Followed Tim Skipper (2024).

System Shift, on arrival
Season20252026Trend
Record & result
Record9-44-3
PostseasonW bowl—
Coordinators
OCJosh DavisJosh Davis
DCNick BenedettoNick Benedetto
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense2042
Defense9261
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%32.838.3
Red-zone pass%36.034.5
4th-down go%opp. territory34.321.1
Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-24.9 pts
#187 of 208 · bottom quarter
Defense vs. talent
+45.8 pts
#2 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 232 lbs
across 28 of 34 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-0.6 lbs
#240 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. class year
So
#248 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
2.9★
rated arrivals only
Top states: CA (8), IL (4), NE (3), AZ (2), HI (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
50.8
position-weighted
Talent lost
51.4
position-weighted
Net
-0.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: E.J. Warner (QB) from Rice
Biggest loss: Mikey Keene (QB) to Michigan
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys D-line via the portal
100%
#1 of 239 stints
Buys Safety via the portal
83%
#10 of 218 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
80%
#146 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2025: Beat Miami (OH) 18-3 Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
13-7

Big games

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1-3 against his rivals.

Rivalry record
1-3
25.0% · 2 rivals
One-score games
2-2
50.0% · margin ≤8
Against the spread
12-8
+4.7 pts a game vs. the line
all 20 had a line
Rivalry ledger
San Diego State0-20%ATS —
Boise State1-150%ATS —
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
1-2 33.3%ATS —
Regional Program
11-5 68.8%ATS 9-7 16 of 16

ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.

Signature games

0-2 vs. AP top 25 · 0-0 vs. the top 10
Signature wins
W
Boise State · 2025
30-7
RivalUpsetQuality opponent
W
Miami (OH) · 2025
18-3
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
W
Georgia Southern · 2025
42-14
Quality opponent
Signature losses
L
San Diego State · 2025
0-23
Rival
L
Boise State · 2026
31-38
Rival
L
San Diego State · 2026
23-26
RivalUpset

Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.

How he plays

Run/pass mix, by field position

Called about what the situation called for.

842 run and pass snaps at Fresno State, 2025–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.

passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)
Pass rate, stint by stint

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%FBS avg 41%Fresno State2025–2026▲ 3.4pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered season

How good is he so far?

Too new to grade — in-season movement only
Fresno State’s composite stature has held about steady since preseason: 30.1 entering the year to 30.0 through week 8 (National Program III) · #123 of 138 in movement since preseason · bottom quarter.
Part four · How he builds a team

Three numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.

  1. 1His recruiting
  2. 2Roster ownership
  3. 3Where he recruits

His recruiting, really

#70Nationally, his own classes

His one ranked Fresno State class of his own finished #70 nationally.

2025
#103
Transition
2026
#70
His class

His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle

Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.

Roster ownership

Roster ownership

71%His own players

of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 84 of 118 players. The other 34 are holdovers from before he was hired.

Arrived under him 84Inherited 34

Of his own players on this roster, 26% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).

Everyone he has brought in, 2025–2026Counting players who have since left: 30% of the 93 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.

“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.

Where he recruits

CATop state

is his biggest recruiting state: 32 of 46 signees (70%) across his 2025–2026 tenure, drawn from 9 states in all. Next: NE (4).

Where his signees came from, 2025–2026 (46 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)

74% of his signees come from CA and its 3 border states (AZ 2).

1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee2 signees2 signees1 signee4 signees1 signee2 signees1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee2 signees1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee2 signees1 signee1 signee4 signees2 signees1 signee

Off this map: 1 signee to the east (NJ). 1 signee without a plottable hometown location not shown.

By region
West
37
Midwest
6
Northeast
1
South
1
Roster distance from campus (Valley Children's Stadium, CA)
median hometown distance
216 mi
within 100 mi
24%
within 500 mi
70%
beyond 1,000 mi
26%
110 of 118 roster players with a known hometown (93% coverage)

The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.