The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Steve Sarkisian

Followed Tom Herman. Steve Sarkisian inherited a Power Program I Texas and won with it.

Peak, then fade
91–53
2009–now · 3 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

We need to focus on the task at hand, and we need to be enamored with (ourselves) because I think this week can be full of distractions if you allow them to be distractions
I’m not so consumed with what the end result might be
The Daily Texan3 days after the 59–7 opener
This guy’s been working hard
The Daily Texan2 days after the 59–7 opener
For the first time running out of the tunnel at DKR and putting this jersey on and understanding what you’re playing for, I thought (our transfers) did a nice job
The Daily Texanthe day after the 59–7 opener
There were so many ways we felt like we had to move (Wingo) around to create opportunities for him
The Daily Texanthe day after the 59–7 opener
At the end of the day, we don’t really have to change
The Daily Texanthe day after the 59–7 opener
The SEC is a physically taxing league, … but I would argue it’s almost more mentally taxing
The Daily Texanthe day before the opener
I don’t question our effort, our intent or our physicality
The Daily Texan4 days before the opener
I’m excited for these guys
The Daily Texan4 days before the opener
The fact that somebody out there is going to take a player off of an NFL roster and tell somebody who’s been doing it for nine months to go kick rocks, that doesn’t sit well with me
FOX Sports4 days before the opener
I think for KJ, he continues to show us his gamer mentality
The Daily Texan8 days before the opener
I will say Dia is as far along or maybe even further along than anybody we’ve had in that role
The Daily Texan8 days before the opener
The two hardest-playing players on our team right now are Graceson Littleton and Emmett Mosley, and they’re playing at an extremely high level
The Daily Texan8 days before the opener
(They are) two guys that push themselves every day, whether it’s in the pass game (or) the run game
The Daily Texan8 days before the opener
We are counting on Jonah, and we’re pushing him
The Daily Texan9 days before the opener
The length of the season has made me think more about it
The Daily Texan
It was very intentional in what we were trying to do — putting a roster together that could go the distance
The Daily Texan
I don’t know what’s going to happen, and I don’t even know if it’s good or not
The Daily Texan
Now, we really can just keep developing all of our players
The Daily Texan
I credit the guys that are returning in the program for embodying what we believe in
The Daily Texan
There’s a lot of tall receivers with long arms, but it’s (Coleman’s) ability to have the right balance and body control and timing on balls
The Daily Texan
I didn’t like it
The Daily Texan
From the linebacker perspective, when you really think about it, and you think about the amount of nickel you really play in a season and what that looks like, you’re thinking about two backers the majority of time on the field
The Daily Texan
His strength is his catch radius, but beyond that, it’s the balance and body control
The Daily Texan
I feel like we’ve forgotten about Ryan Wingo
The Daily Texan
I feel good, and for as physical as this camp has been, I think that’s encouraging
Burntorangenation
He’s in real freshman moments right now
The Daily Texan
I don’t worry about it
The Daily Texan
I think all three of these guys exude the leadership that is needed, the commitment to the program, the commitment to their teammates and the mental and physical toughness to be a champion
The Daily Texan
Like anything in this world, if you want to be really good at something, then you have got to take risks
The Daily Texan
I don’t know yet about Notre Dame — we’ll see
The Daily Texan
I think in this day and age of the [Transfer] Portal and high school, you’ve got to have the ability to be strategic
On3
Those are the moments that are going to get us through the tough fourth quarters. Those are the moments that are going to get us through some tough road games of where we’re headed this fall
Saturday Down South
To make the moves we make … we had to let DeAndre Moore go. We had to let Parker Livingstone go. We had to let Tre Wisner go. We had to let CJ Baxter go
Saturday Down South
We’re going to coach him. We’re going to develop him. When he’s ready, I think he’ll be good enough to play. How long that takes to get him ready? That’s going to be the race. That’s the challenge
Saturday Down South
Week 1, Week 4, Week 8? I don’t know. I do know he’s got the right competitive spirit. I do know he’s got the skill set and the ability to be a good player for us
Saturday Down South
He provides great length, great speed, tremendous man-to-man ability, very confident, very aggressive. All the attributes you want in a defensive back
Saturday Down South
Then we had some failures as a team
Saturday Down South
He didn’t play to the way of what he was capable of playing. Then those same people that were saying that about him wanted to criticize and demean him almost for letting them down because he didn’t live up to what they thought he was going to be. Very interesting concept right there.
Saturday Down South
I think he learned a lot about himself last year about dealing with adversity and overcoming. I think he learned a lot about his teammates and the support that they gave him and them recognizing the mental and physical toughness that he has to play the position, to be their leader. I think that he’s grown into a great leader for us
Saturday Down South
(Cole is) a guy that unfortunately didn’t get drafted, and so he puts himself in a bit of a different situation than maybe most guys that got done playing their fourth year in college
The Daily Texan
We made a conscious effort this year to try to get older
The Daily Texan
I think one way you can try to get a little older is trying to keep and retain your players that have been in your program for that fourth and that fifth year, which is tough to do.
The Daily Texan
Where we’re at as a state of a program is that we’re getting variable, varying players – some that may have an immediate impact, some that we’re trying to project from a developmental standpoint of what they can look like down the road
The Daily Texan
It wasn’t a slight against Tech
On3
Honestly, truthfully, I would love to keep Notre Dame on our schedule
Saturday Down South
What’s going to happen to the CFP? That’s the hard part
Saturday Down South
You know, we haven’t had the discussion
Saturday Down South
I really do. I think he loves the University of Texas. You know, he does pretty good through NIL.
Saturday Down South
I think some of that is dependent upon, you know, how we play as a team this fall, how he plays individually, knock on wood, injury-free football, things like that
Saturday Down South
At Texas, we will only take 50% of a player’s academic credit hours
The Daily Texan
There’s a team in our state that plays in another conference that has a schedule that I would argue if I played with our twos and our threes, we could go undefeated, and they’ll probably make the CFP this year
The Daily Texan
We need to find a way to find equity in strength of schedule or reward those teams that are playing that type of strength of schedule
The Daily Texan
I probably shouldn’t have used ‘basket-weaving’ as my example for the class. Macroeconomics, I don’t give a damn whatever the class is. Yoga, we have yoga at UT. The class part of it was irrelevant
Saturday Down South
At UT, you have to complete half of your degree at the University of Texas. You have to do those 60 hours at UT to get a degree from the University of Texas. At a school like Ole Miss, I’ll reference it that way, they can take one class and get a degree … My point is that was one of the inequalities and discrepancies that we deal with in college athletics.
Saturday Down South
Arch could have dragged us over the coals for six million, seven million, whatever he wanted. That’s an extra five million that I can go get a Cam Coleman, go get a Hollywood Smothers and go get a Rasheem Biles
Saturday Down South
I would say probably for the first time I feel like we have the top-level talent across the board position by position on both sides of the ball
Saturday Down South
He had a lingering thing that he’d been dealing with over a couple of years that we just wanted to clean up
Saturday Down South
I feel like Texas is incredibly talented. This will be [Steve Sarkisian’s] best team
ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit · Saturday Down South
A Week 2 victory over Ohio State would mark Sarkisian’s most notable with the Longhorns and go a long way in helping Texas achieve a top-4 seed in the CFP
Crawford · Saturday Down South

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Blue Blood in his 6th career season — faster than 33% of the 100 FBS coaches who have ever reached Blue Blood (rank #66 of 100 by seasons-to-arrival).

Washington, 5 seasons
+2.3
National Program III → National Program II.
Texas, 6 seasons (active)
+7.2
Power Program I → Power Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%USC2014–2014– 0.0ptTexas2021–2026▲ 4.9pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Texas6.7pt#201 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

10–8 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Chip Kelly.

Rivalry record
10–8
55.6% · 7 rivals
One-score games
27–23
54.0% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
6–10
37.5%
Buyout owed
$60,307,500
bigger than 96% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Oklahoma3–175%
Oregon0–40%
Texas Tech1–150%
Texas A&M2–0100%
UCLA0–10%
Notre Dame1–0100%
The toughest matchup
vs. Chip Kelly0–4
4 meetings, 2009–2012
’09 L’10 L’11 L’12 L
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
6–10 37.5%
Power Program
21–22 48.8%
National Program
25–12 67.6%
Regional Program
24–3 88.9%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.32
#52 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.09
#103 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

coaching decisionOne fan's take that season

One fan believes Steve Sarkisian needs to fully utilize his team's talent and play with aggressive intensity

If Coach Sarkisian is truly "All Gas And No Brakes," his offense will dominate opposing defenses and his defense will dominate opposing offenses.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 5, 2026 · via On Texas Football

Show all 2
program directionOne fan's take that season

One fan believes Steve Sarkisian is losing too many games

Sarkisian missed his window at texas. Its only going sideways or backwards from here. If he hires an oc he might have a chance.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jun 18, 2026 · via On Texas Football

Coaching career

2021–now
Texasinheritor
Power Program I → Power Program I
Steve Sarkisian inherited a Power Program I Texas and won with it.

4th-best Texas tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+9.4 pts
#63 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+0.8 pts
#98 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Tom Herman (2017–2020).

Season202120222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record5–78–512–213–310–30–0
PostseasonL bowlL bowlL bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#17#5#3#6#1#7
Style — pass rate
Pass rate43.146.347.448.349.848.0
Coordinators
OCKyle FloodKyle FloodA. J. Milwee / Kyle FloodA. J. Milwee / Kyle FloodA. J. Milwee / Kyle FloodA. J. Milwee / Kyle Flood
DCJeff Choate / Pete KwiatkowskiJeff Choate / Pete KwiatkowskiJeff Choate / Pete KwiatkowskiJohnny Nansen / Pete KwiatkowskiJohnny Nansen / Pete KwiatkowskiWill Muschamp
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense758478767971
Defense307482946322
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%42.949.049.750.646.649.1
Red-zone pass%33.349.643.847.850.542.3
4th-down go%opp. territory42.936.136.844.228.6
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
63
3.4★ avg rating
Portal departures
125
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-62
#118 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Cam Coleman On3 modeled · $3,000,000Rasheem Biles On3 modeled · $1,000,000Raleek Brown On3 modeled · $1,000,000Hero Kanu On3 modeled · $1,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 244 lbs
across 56 of 63 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+12.9 lbs
#1 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#71 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: TX (16), CA (7), FL (7), AL (3), IL (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
66.8
position-weighted
Talent lost
65.9
position-weighted
Net
+0.9
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Quinn Ewers (QB) from Ohio State
Biggest loss: Hudson Card (QB) to Purdue
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Kyle Flood → co-A. J. Milwee / Kyle Flood · 2023the system held
80th pct77th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 46.0% → 50.2% (+4.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 61% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: co-Jeff Choate / Pete Kwiatkowski → co-Johnny Nansen / Pete Kwiatkowski · 2024the system held
78th pct79th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: co-Johnny Nansen / Pete Kwiatkowski → Will Muschamp · 2026
63rd pct22nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
211 lbs
6′3″ avg · #432 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
209 lbs
6′0″ avg · #307 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
190 lbs
6′1″ avg · #531 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
244 lbs
6′4″ avg · #434 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
318 lbs
6′5″ avg · #80 of 779 · more than most
D-line
306 lbs
6′4″ avg · #30 of 753 · more than most
Linebacker
236 lbs
6′3″ avg · #80 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
193 lbs
6′0″ avg · #253 of 771 · a typical amount
Safety
206 lbs
6′0″ avg · #11 of 346 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Running back from high school
79%
#180 of 208 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
81%
#182 of 224 stints
Postseason detail2022: Lost to Washington 20–27 Valero Alamo Bowl2023: Lost to Washington 31–37 CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl2024: Beat Clemson 38–24 College Football Playoff First Round Game Presented by Allstate2024: Beat Arizona State 39–31 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl2024: Lost to Ohio State 14–28 College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic2025: Beat Michigan 41–27 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

39 NFL Draft picks: Samuel Cosmi (2021), Joseph Ossai (2021), Ta'Quon Graham (2021), Caden Sterns (2021), Sam Ehlinger (2021), Bijan Robinson (2023), DeMarvion Overshown (2023), Roschon Johnson (2023) + 31 more

13 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Bijan Robinson (2022), T'Vondre Sweat (2023), Xavier Worthy (2023), Anthony Hill Jr. (2024), Michael Taaffe (2024), Jahdae Barron (2024), Kelvin Banks (2024), Ryan Niblett (2025) + 5 more

48–20
2014–2014
USCinheritor
Blue Blood → Blue Blood
Steve Sarkisian inherited a Blue Blood USC and won with it.

8th-best USC tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed Lane Kiffin (2010–2013).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints
Grows Cornerback from high school
100%
#225 of 236 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat Nebraska 45–42 National University Holiday Bowl

9 NFL Draft picks: Marqise Lee (2014), Marcus Martin (2014), Devon Kennard (2014), Leonard Williams (2015), Nelson Agholor (2015), Josh Shaw (2015), Buck Allen (2015), Randall Telfer (2015) + 1 more

9–4
2009–2013
Washingtoncaretaker
National Program II → National Program II
Steve Sarkisian held Washington at National Program II for 5 seasons.

15th-best Washington tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Followed Tyrone Willingham (2005–2008) · succeeded by Chris Petersen (2014–2019).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints

9 NFL Draft picks: Donald Butler (2010), Daniel Te'o-Nesheim (2010), Jake Locker (2011), Mason Foster (2011), Alameda Ta'amu (2012), Senio Kelemete (2012), Desmond Trufant (2013), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (2014) + 1 more

34–29

Defining games during this era

2024 Cotton Bowl semifinal · Ohio State 28, Texas 142023 Big-12 Championship · Texas 49, Oklahoma State 21