This week · as of Wed Nov 4

6-2, won 2 straight, on track for 8-4 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianWashingtonUSCTexasOregonOregonOklahomaOklahomaDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyWashington when he took over: 30.7 (National Program II), its final 2008 readingtook overWashington, 2009: 5-7, National Program IIIWashington, 2009: 5-7, National Program III20095-7Washington, 2010: 7-6, National Program II20107-6Washington, 2011: 7-6, National Program II20117-6Washington, 2012: 7-6, National Program II20127-6Washington, 2013: 8-4, National Program IIWashington, 2013: 8-4, National Program II20138-4+2.3USC when he took over: 70.8 (Blue Blood), its final 2013 readingtook overUSC, 2014: 9-4, Blue BloodUSC, 2014: 9-4, Blue Blood20149-4USC, 2015: 3-2, Blue BloodUSC, 2015: 3-2, Blue Blood20153-2-2.2Texas when he took over: 56.8 (Power Program I), its final 2020 readingtook overTexas, 2021: 5-7, Power Program ITexas, 2021: 5-7, Power Program I20215-7Texas, 2022: 8-5, Power Program II20228-5Texas, 2023: 12-2, Power Program I202312-2Texas, 2024: 13-3, Power Program I202413-3Texas, 2025: 10-3, Power Program I202510-3Texas, 2026: 6-2, Power Program ITexas, 2026: 6-2, Power Program I20266-2+7.2best: 2014gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 5-5

Washington’10W’11L’12LUSC’14WTexas’22L’23L’24W’24W’24L’25W

Show all 10 games
Washington2010Holiday BowlW 19-72011Alamo BowlL 56-672012Maaco Bowl Las VegasL 26-28USC2014Holiday BowlW 45-42Texas2022Alamo BowlL 20-272023 semiSugar BowlL 31-372024CFP first roundW 38-242024 QFPeach BowlW 39-312024 semiCotton Bowl ClassicL 14-282025Citrus BowlW 41-27

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 31-3 vs. Mississippi State Sat Oct 31
  • This season6-2 won 2 straight
  • On track for8-4 regular season
  • Nextat Missouri Sat Nov 7
  • Stature9th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • AP poll #11 → #10 up one
  • Playoff odds 75% → 80% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: at Missouri

Sat Nov 7, 12 pm ET ESPN · No. 19 Missouri is 6-2 · First meeting between Sarkisian and Eli Drinkwitz as head coaches · Texas’s chance to win: 55% (the site’s model)

His week

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

Offense: 117th of 138 per play. Defense: 26th.

Offense, per play117thOffense, points per trip inside the 4014thDefense, per play26thDefense, points allowed per trip inside the 4011thWorstBest
Offense, per play117th of 138Offense, points per trip inside the 4014th of 138Defense, per play26th of 138Defense, points allowed per trip inside the 4011th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Texas. The other two rows are where Texas stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Missouri (6-2)ESPN55%
  2. Sat Nov 14at LSU (6-2)ABC33%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Arkansas (3-5)95%
  4. Fri Nov 27at Texas A&M (4-4)ABC62%

Percent: Texas’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Texas has held at 9th of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.

  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 31-3 vs. Mississippi State41 headlines · 12th of 138Texas HC Steve Sarkisian still has big issues with SEC going to 9 conference games Yahoo Sports
  2. Oct 19–25W 34-27 vs. Ole Miss88 headlines · 2nd of 138Texas AD defends Longhorns as pressure mounts on Arch Manning, Steve Sarkisian: 'Rome is not burning' CBS Sports
  3. Oct 12–18L 24-27 vs. Florida53 headlines · 2nd of 138Frustrated Steve Sarkisian says Texas to 'evaluate everything' after Florida collapse USA Today“Everything is going to be evaluated”Steve Sarkisian on potentially replacing Arch Manning, Oct 17
  4. Oct 5–11L 24-27 vs. Oklahoma30 headlines · 11th of 138Texas losing to Oklahoma was inexcusable. The blame starts with Steve Sarkisian The New York Times
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4No game25 headlines · 19th of 138Texas' Steve Sarkisian wants unacceptable celebrations cut ESPN“I tried to tell you guys about Florida”Sarkisian praises Gators, Sep 30
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 20-17 at Tennessee47 headlines · 5th of 138'It Just Gets Cut Out': Steve Sarkisian On Headset Issues When Trump Attends Games FOX Sports“We have to fix it”Steve Sarkisian comments on Colin Simmons’ penalty, Sep 26

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Texas’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Top-quarter on both sides of the ball — 76th percentile offense, 80th percentile defense.

Texas, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B+
of which —76th
efficiency — 76th percentile success rate, 2021–25
B+74th
Standard-downs success
B+72nd
Passing-downs success
B66th
Trench push (line yards)
B61st
Red-zone scoring rate
B-52nd
Power-success (short yardage)
B61st
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

A
of which —80th
80th percentile SP+ defense, 2021–25
B+78th
Front-7 havoc
B+71st
Secondary havoc
B65th
Stuff rate (run defense)
B60th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Poach watch

This winter

3%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled63rd-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    Paid $10.8 million in 2025, the 96th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 2% on the season before
  • ▼ Lower
    A Power Four program · 94th percentile of FBS in program stature last season
  • ▲ Higher
    23-6 over his previous two seasons here
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.