Holy Cross beats William & Mary 41-14
Team pages: Holy Cross · William & Mary
Holy Cross beat William & Mary 41-14. Share this game
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Next: William & Mary beat North Carolina Central 17-14, Sat Oct 10
How it swung
The turning point: Watkins 75-yd TD pass to Johnson, ties it 7-7 (Q1, 9:26). Holy Cross went from 55% to 30% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Holy Cross a 42% chance, and the closing betting line (Holy Cross was a 6-point underdog) put it at 31%.
Holy Cross won by 27, after dipping to 22% in the first quarter.
Up to 78% in the first quarter, then William & Mary lost it.
Holy Cross 41-14 William & Mary
Holy Cross wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.William & Mary 14-41 Holy CrossWilliam & Mary lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 9:36Lynch 14-yd TD pass to Curran, Holy Cross goes ahead 7-0Holy Cross 33% → 55% (+22)
- 2Q1 9:26Watkins 75-yd TD pass to Johnson, ties it 7-7Holy Cross 55% → 30% (−25)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 9:36Lynch 14-yd TD pass to Curran, Holy Cross goes ahead 7-0William & Mary 67% → 45% (−22)
- 2Q1 9:26Watkins 75-yd TD pass to Johnson, ties it 7-7William & Mary 45% → 70% (+25)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (William & Mary -6), at 23% for Holy Cross (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Holy Cross scored on 7 of its 13 drives; William & Mary on 2 of its 12.
Holy Cross’s drives are teal, William & Mary’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From William & Mary’s side
William & Mary’s best moment: Watkins 75-yd TD pass to Johnson, ties it 7-7 (Q1 9:26). It lifted William & Mary’s win chance by 25 points.
Box score
Holy Cross 41, William & Mary 14
Holy Cross covered +6 by 33. The total, 55, went over 54.5.
Holy Cross leaders
- Passing David Lynch 16 of 26, 186 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Joseph Williams 16 for 111 yds, 1 TD; Datrell Jones 13 for 77 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Ty Curran 5 for 65 yds, 2 TD; Joseph Williams 3 for 39 yds
William & Mary leaders
- Passing Winston Watkins 15 of 29, 210 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Andrew King 10 for 25 yds; Winston Watkins 13 for 18 yds
- Receiving Khylil Johnson 2 for 82 yds, 1 TD; Kai Austin 4 for 58 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Holy Cross · 1-4
Rated 198th in our preseason ratings, 241st now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 8-point win over Lafayette as a 4-point underdog.
W 38-30 @ Lafayette #226 of 668
won by 8 as a 4-point underdog
Last three games
William & Mary · 2-3
Rated 183rd in our preseason ratings, 221st now.
Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.
Week by week
William & Mary
- Wk 1Wat Villanova35-32
- Wk 1Wvs Delaware State22-15
- Wk 2Lat Lehigh20-44
- Wk 3Lvs Fordham27-52
- Wk 4Lat Duke7-62
Holy Cross
- Wk 1Lvs Lehigh10-35
- Wk 1Lat Colgate10-35
- Wk 2Lat Miami (OH)7-45
- Wk 3Lvs Yale28-38
- Wk 4Wat Lafayette38-30
Power rating by week
William & Mary is rated 0.7 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on William & Mary’s chances here.
William & Mary favored by 6 · Total 54.5
How games like this usually go
William & Mary by 6, on the usual path until Q1 3:28
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Holy Cross.
The total rose 5 points.
Spread: −6.5 → −6 · Total: 49.5 → 54.5
The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
William & Mary is worth +9.1 points (±9.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 99th percentile.
33% at home, 9% on the road against FBS opponents (1-2 home, 1-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.1 at home vs. away over 55 games — inside the ±8.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 431 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- William & Mary6th1-2
- Holy Cross7th1-2