William & Mary beats North Carolina Central 17-14
Team pages: William & Mary · North Carolina Central
William & Mary beat North Carolina Central 17-14. Share this game
We had North Carolina Central favored. William & Mary won.
Next: William & Mary vs Georgetown, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET
Next: North Carolina Central at Delaware State, Fri Oct 23 · 5:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Thompkins 69-yd TD run, ties it 14-14 (Q3, 6:16). William & Mary went from 70% to 41% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave William & Mary a 23% chance, and the closing betting line (William & Mary was a 2.5-point underdog) put it at 42%.
A tight one: William & Mary bottomed out at 30% and won.
Up to 70% in the second quarter, then North Carolina Central lost it.
William & Mary 17-14 North Carolina Central
William & Mary wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.North Carolina Central 14-17 William & MaryNorth Carolina Central lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The three plays that swung it
- 1Q3 7:40Watkins 16-yd TD pass to Honesty, William & Mary goes ahead 14-7William & Mary 49% → 69% (+20)
- 2Q3 6:16Thompkins 69-yd TD run, ties it 14-14William & Mary 70% → 41% (−29)
- 3Q4 0:00Watkins incomplete to AustinWilliam & Mary 67% → 43% (−24)
The three plays that swung it
- 1Q3 7:40Watkins 16-yd TD pass to Honesty, William & Mary goes ahead 14-7North Carolina Central 51% → 31% (−20)
- 2Q3 6:16Thompkins 69-yd TD run, ties it 14-14North Carolina Central 30% → 59% (+29)
- 3Q4 0:00Watkins incomplete to AustinNorth Carolina Central 33% → 57% (+24)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (North Carolina Central -2.5), at 33% for William & Mary (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
William & Mary scored on 2 of its 13 drives; North Carolina Central on 2 of its 13.
William & Mary’s drives are teal, North Carolina Central’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From North Carolina Central’s side
North Carolina Central’s best moment: Thompkins 69-yd TD run, ties it 14-14 (Q3 6:16). It lifted North Carolina Central’s win chance by 29 points.
Too close to call on 71% of plays.
Box score
William & Mary 17, North Carolina Central 14
William & Mary covered +2.5 by 5.5. The total, 31, stayed under 54.5.
William & Mary leaders
- Passing Winston Watkins 7 of 18, 106 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Jah'Kei Chavis 13 for 70 yds; Andrew King 12 for 36 yds
- Receiving Alfred Honesty 3 for 68 yds, 1 TD; Jacob Mullins 1 for 31 yds
North Carolina Central leaders
- Passing Joshua Jones 9 of 21, 96 yds
- Rushing Gino Addison 22 for 169 yds; Cobey Thompkins 5 for 98 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Gino Addison 4 for 43 yds; Chance Peterson 7 for 41 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
William & Mary · 2-4
Rated 183rd in our preseason ratings, 250th now.
Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.
Last three games
North Carolina Central · 2-4
Rated 146th in our preseason ratings, 224th now.
Three straight losses.
L 20-44 @ Gardner-Webb #164 of 668
lost by 24 as a 7-point underdog
W 27-6 vs Elizabeth City State #341 of 668
L 30-42 @ Texas Southern #205 of 668
lost by 12 as a 10.5-point favorite
Week by week
North Carolina Central
- Wk 1Wvs Elizabeth City State27-6
- Wk 2Wvs North Carolina A&T30-22
- Wk 3Lat Gardner-Webb20-44
- Wk 4Lat East Carolina9-42
- Wk 5Lvs Campbell31-38
William & Mary
- Wk 1Wvs Delaware State22-15
- Wk 2Lat Lehigh20-44
- Wk 3Lvs Fordham27-52
- Wk 4Lat Duke7-62
- Wk 5Lvs Holy Cross14-41
Power rating by week
North Carolina Central is rated 1.9 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on North Carolina Central’s chances here.
North Carolina Central favored by 2.5 · Total 54.5
How games like this usually go
North Carolina Central by 2.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward William & Mary.
The total fell 4 points.
Spread: −4 → −2.5 · Total: 58.5 → 54.5
The books’ cut: 5.5%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.
0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-6 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.9 at home vs. away over 43 games — inside the ±10.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 151 miles to get here.