Campbell beats North Carolina Central 38-31
Team pages: Campbell · North Carolina Central
Campbell beat North Carolina Central 38-31. Share this game
Next: Campbell beat Towson 24-20, Sat Oct 17
Next: North Carolina Central lost to William & Mary 17-14, Sat Oct 10
How it swung
The turning point: Dobson 62-yd TD run, ties it 31-31 (Q3, 6:31). Campbell went from 91% to 72% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Campbell a 71% chance, and the closing betting line (Campbell was a 13.5-point favorite) put it at 86%.
Favored the whole way: Campbell never fell below 56%.
North Carolina Central never had better than a 44% chance.
Campbell · Q1 3:59Campbell 38-31 North Carolina Central
Campbell wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.North Carolina Central 31-38 CampbellNorth Carolina Central lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 4:58Thomas 32-yd TD run, ties it 14-14Campbell 66% → 83% (+17)
- 2Q3 6:31Dobson 62-yd TD run, ties it 31-31Campbell 91% → 72% (−19)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 4:58Thomas 32-yd TD run, ties it 14-14North Carolina Central 34% → 17% (−17)
- 2Q3 6:31Dobson 62-yd TD run, ties it 31-31North Carolina Central 9% → 28% (+19)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Campbell -13.5), at 73% for Campbell (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Campbell scored on 6 of its 14 drives; North Carolina Central on 5 of its 12.
Campbell’s drives are teal, North Carolina Central’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From North Carolina Central’s side
North Carolina Central’s best moment: Dobson 62-yd TD run, ties it 31-31 (Q3 6:31). It lifted North Carolina Central’s win chance by 19 points.
Box score
Campbell 38, North Carolina Central 31
North Carolina Central covered +13.5 by 6.5. The total, 69, went over 57.5.
Campbell leaders
- Passing Kamden Sixkiller 18 of 35, 226 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing JJ Cowan 14 for 139 yds, 1 TD; De'Von Thomas 10 for 89 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Christian Campbell 5 for 72 yds; Aaryn Tate 4 for 69 yds
North Carolina Central leaders
- Passing Nelson Layne 17 of 28, 129 yds
- Rushing Zion Dobson 13 for 80 yds, 1 TD; Nelson Layne 12 for 59 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Chance Peterson 10 for 84 yds; Tristan Stitt 3 for 58 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Campbell · 4-1
Rated 239th in our preseason ratings, 173rd now, up 66 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
North Carolina Central · 2-3
Rated 146th in our preseason ratings, 210th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 20-44 @ Gardner-Webb #164 of 668
lost by 24 as a 7-point underdog
W 27-6 vs Elizabeth City State #341 of 668
L 30-42 @ Texas Southern #205 of 668
lost by 12 as a 10.5-point favorite
Week by week
North Carolina Central
- Wk 1Lat Texas Southern30-42
- Wk 1Wvs Elizabeth City State27-6
- Wk 2Wvs North Carolina A&T30-22
- Wk 3Lat Gardner-Webb20-44
- Wk 4Lat East Carolina9-42
Campbell
- Wk 1Wat East Tennessee State49-37
- Wk 1Wvs Western Carolina28-19
- Wk 2Lat Florida3-52
- Wk 3Wvs North Carolina A&T42-14
- Wk 4Wat Hampton44-20
Power rating by week
Campbell is rated 1.7 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
North Carolina Central leads the series 2-1
3 meetings since 2022 · North Carolina Central has won the last 2
- 2024North Carolina Central 45-14
- 2023North Carolina Central 49-48
- 2022Campbell 48-18
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on North Carolina Central’s chances here.
Campbell favored by 13.5 · Total 57.5
How games like this usually go
Campbell by 13.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 5 points toward Campbell.
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: +8.5 → +13.5 · Total: 60.5 → 57.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.
0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-6 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.9 at home vs. away over 43 games — inside the ±10.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 40 miles to get here.