Lehigh beats Bucknell 31-30

Team pages: Bucknell · Lehigh

Bucknell1-830
Lehigh7-231Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Goodman Stadium, Bethlehem, Pa. · Crowd 4,313ESPN+

Lehigh beat Bucknell 31-30.

We had Lehigh favored. It won.

Next: Bucknell vs Fordham, Sat Nov 7 · 1:00 PM ET

Next: Lehigh vs Colgate, Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Lehigh a 99% chance, and the closing betting line (Lehigh was a 26.5-point favorite) put it at 98%.

Favored the whole way: Lehigh never fell below 66%.

Bucknell never had better than a 33% chance.

FinalLehigh 31-30 BucknellLehigh wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q479% at halfLehighWon31-3012−12+10Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q479% at halfLehighWon31-3012Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q421% at halfLehighLost30-3112+12−10Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q421% at halfLehighLost30-3112Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 7:11Milligan 19-yd TD run, Bucknell goes ahead 24-21Lehigh 88% → 76% (−12)
  2. 2Q4 3:05Yoder 11-yd TD run, Lehigh goes ahead 28-24Lehigh 81% → 91% (+10)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 7:11Milligan 19-yd TD run, Bucknell goes ahead 24-21Bucknell 12% → 24% (+12)
  2. 2Q4 3:05Yoder 11-yd TD run, Lehigh goes ahead 28-24Bucknell 19% → 9% (−10)
Lehigh’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Lehigh -26.5), at 97% for Lehigh (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Lehigh scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Bucknell on 5 of its 11.

Lehigh’s drives are teal, Bucknell’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Bucknell: Punt, from 75 yards out to 42PuntLehigh: Punt, from 85 yards out to 76PuntBucknell: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownLehigh: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Bucknell: Punt, from 75 yards out to 76PuntLehigh: Punt, from 80 yards out to 56PuntBucknell: Punt, from 91 yards out to 85PuntLehigh: Punt, from 55 yards out to 51PuntBucknell: Punt, from 85 yards out to 52PuntLehigh: Punt, from 90 yards out to 89PuntBucknell: Touchdown, from 71 yards out to 0TouchdownLehigh: End of half, from 75 yards out to 67End of halfQ3Lehigh: Punt, from 75 yards out to 65PuntBucknell: Interception, from 79 yards out to 71InterceptionLehigh: Touchdown, from 29 yards out to 0TouchdownBucknell: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 13Field goalLehigh: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Bucknell: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownLehigh: Touchdown, from 62 yards out to 0TouchdownBucknell: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 80DownsLehigh: Field goal, from 20 yards out to 16Field goalBucknell: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownLehigh: End of game, from 43 yards out to 46End of game

From Bucknell’s side

Bucknell’s best moment: Milligan 19-yd TD run, Bucknell goes ahead 24-21 (Q4 7:11). It lifted Bucknell’s win chance by 12 points.

Box score

Lehigh 31, Bucknell 30

Bucknell covered +26.5 by 25.5. The total, 61, went over 44.5.

Bucknell leaders

  • Passing Emmett Dowling 33 of 52, 318 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Jack Sullivan 12 for 30 yds, 1 TD; Sam Milligan 3 for 26 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Sam Milligan 9 for 122 yds, 1 TD; Owen Garwood 7 for 64 yds

Lehigh leaders

  • Passing Patrick Coan 3 of 3, 46 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Luke Yoder 31 for 183 yds, 2 TD; Aidan Mayfield 6 for 27 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Matt D'Avino 2 for 34 yds, 1 TD; Anthony Feaster 4 for 24 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Bucknell · 1-7

Rated 236th in our preseason ratings, 257th now.

Three straight losses.

L 3-34 @ Holy Cross No. 199 of 668 teams

lost by 31 as a 10-point underdog

Bucknell lost 3-34 at Holy Cross. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 25%.

L 7-20 vs Lafayette No. 231 of 668 teams

lost by 13 as a 4.5-point underdog

Bucknell lost 7-20 vs Lafayette. Chance to win started at 55%, low 3%, high 62%.

L 14-21 @ Georgetown No. 256 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog

Bucknell lost 14-21 at Georgetown. Chance to win started at 30%, low under 1%, high 62%.

L 0-59 @ PittsburghTop 25 No. 42 of 668 teams

lost by 59 as a 54.5-point underdog

Bucknell lost 0-59 at Pittsburgh. Never had a real chance.

L 7-20 vs Pennsylvania No. 251 of 668 teams

lost by 13 as a 3.5-point underdog

Bucknell lost 7-20 vs Pennsylvania. Chance to win started at 48%, low 1%, high 54%.

W 14-3 @ VMI No. 264 of 668 teams

won by 11 as an 8.5-point favorite

Bucknell won 14-3 at VMI. Chance to win started at 69%, low 37%, high 99%.

L 16-17 vs Villanova No. 146 of 668 teams

lost by 1 as a 22.5-point underdog

Bucknell lost 16-17 vs Villanova. Chance to win started at 9%, low 1%, high 28%.

L 14-35 @ Richmond No. 185 of 668 teams

lost by 21 as a 12.5-point underdog

Bucknell lost 14-35 at Richmond. Chance to win started at 14%, low under 1%, high 14%.

Last three games

Lehigh · 6-2

Rated 140th in our preseason ratings, 137th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 18-24 @ Villanova No. 175 of 668 teams

lost by 6 as a 6.5-point favorite

Lehigh lost 18-24 at Villanova. Chance to win started at 63%, low under 1%, high 63%.

L 38-48 @ Cornell No. 197 of 668 teams

lost by 10 as an 11.5-point favorite

Lehigh lost 38-48 at Cornell. Chance to win started at 66%, low under 1%, high 74%.

W 34-0 vs Fordham No. 247 of 668 teams

won by 34 as a 22.5-point favorite

Lehigh won 34-0 vs Fordham. Chance to win started at 94%, low 91%, high better than 99%.

W 20-7 @ Pennsylvania No. 233 of 668 teams

won by 13 as a 12.5-point favorite

Lehigh won 20-7 at Pennsylvania. Chance to win started at 77%, low 69%, high better than 99%.

W 24-20 vs Dartmouth No. 246 of 668 teams

won by 4 as a 17.5-point favorite

Lehigh won 24-20 vs Dartmouth. Chance to win started at 92%, low 69%, high 97%.

W 44-20 vs William & Mary No. 183 of 668 teams

won by 24 as a 13.5-point favorite

Lehigh won 44-20 vs William & Mary. Chance to win started at 85%, low 85%, high better than 99%.

W 45-14 @ Georgetown No. 258 of 668 teams

won by 31 as a 22.5-point favorite

Lehigh won 45-14 at Georgetown. Chance to win started at 91%, low 89%, high better than 99%.

W 35-10 @ Holy Cross No. 209 of 668 teams

won by 25 as a 14-point favorite

Lehigh won 35-10 at Holy Cross. Chance to win started at 78%, low 76%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Lehigh

Wk 3: W 24-20 vs Dartmouth▲4DartmouthWk 4: W 20-7 at Pennsylvania▲13Pennsylv…Wk 5: W 34-0 vs Fordham▲34FordhamWk 7: L 38-48 at Cornell▼10CornellWk 8: L 18-24 at Villanova▼6Villanova
  • Wk 3Wvs Dartmouth24-20
  • Wk 4Wat Pennsylvania20-7
  • Wk 5Wvs Fordham34-0
  • Wk 7Lat Cornell38-48
  • Wk 8Lat Villanova18-24

Bucknell

Wk 3: L 7-20 vs Pennsylvania▼13Pennsylv…Wk 4: L 0-59 at Pittsburgh▼59Pittsbur…Wk 6: L 14-21 at Georgetown▼7Georgeto…Wk 7: L 7-20 vs Lafayette▼13LafayetteWk 8: L 3-34 at Holy Cross▼31Holy Cro…
  • Wk 3Lvs Pennsylvania7-20
  • Wk 4Lat Pittsburgh0-59
  • Wk 6Lat Georgetown14-21
  • Wk 7Lvs Lafayette7-20
  • Wk 8Lat Holy Cross3-34

Power rating by week

Lehigh is rated 10.2 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-2-9-16Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8LehighBucknell

The series

Lehigh leads the series 20-13-2

35 meetings since 1888 · Lehigh won the last meeting

Lehigh wonBucknell won1888: Lehigh by 741891: Lehigh by 581897: Bucknell by 81898: tie1899: Bucknell by 51900: Lehigh by 61901: Bucknell by 101911: Bucknell by 31922: Bucknell by 141923: tie1963: Bucknell by 221964: Bucknell by 31965: Bucknell by 412003: Lehigh by 362004: Lehigh by 232005: Lehigh by 322006: Lehigh by 312007: Lehigh by 282008: Lehigh by 162009: Lehigh by 192010: Lehigh by 222011: Lehigh by 242012: Lehigh by 232013: Bucknell by 382014: Bucknell by 212015: Lehigh by 112016: Lehigh by 72017: Lehigh by 212018: Lehigh by 282019: Bucknell by 102021: Lehigh by 322022: Bucknell by 22023: Lehigh by 92024: Bucknell by 32025: Lehigh by 1718882025
  • 2025Lehigh 41-24
  • 2024Bucknell 38-35
  • 2023Lehigh 27-18
  • 2022Bucknell 19-17
  • 2021Lehigh 38-6

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Lehigh’s chances here.

50-50Model 99% · Line 98%BucknellLehigh

Lehigh favored by 26.5 · Total 44.5

How games like this usually go

Lehigh by 26.5: the game against the usual path

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 430 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Bucknell.

opened −27.5now −26.5

The total fell 3 points.

opened 47.5now 44.5

Spread: −27.5 → −26.5 · Total: 47.5 → 44.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.