Ohio beats Akron 28-20
Ohio beat Akron 28-20. Share this game
We had Ohio favored. It won.
Next: Ohio at Miami (OH), Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET
Next: Akron vs Western Michigan, Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Poulos 60-yd TD pass to Dorwart, Ohio goes ahead 21-17 (Q4, 9:22). Ohio went from 39% to 76% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Ohio an 84% chance, and the closing betting line (Ohio was a 12.5-point favorite) put it at 84%.
A tight one: Ohio bottomed out at 39% and won.
Akron never had better than a 61% chance.
Ohio · Q1 0:0991-yard TD runOhio · Q4 3:57Ohio 28-20 Akron
Ohio wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Akron 20-28 OhioAkron lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The three plays that swung it
- 1Q4 9:35Gant 1-yd TD run, Akron goes ahead 17-14Ohio 69% → 39% (−30)
- 2Q4 9:22Poulos 60-yd TD pass to Dorwart, Ohio goes ahead 21-17Ohio 39% → 76% (+37)
- 3Q4 3:57Brune 91-yd TD run, Ohio leads 28-17Ohio 70% → 97% (+27)
The three plays that swung it
- 1Q4 9:35Gant 1-yd TD run, Akron goes ahead 17-14Akron 31% → 61% (+30)
- 2Q4 9:22Poulos 60-yd TD pass to Dorwart, Ohio goes ahead 21-17Akron 61% → 24% (−37)
- 3Q4 3:57Brune 91-yd TD run, Ohio leads 28-17Akron 30% → 3% (−27)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Ohio -12.5), at 69% for Ohio (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Ohio scored on 3 of its 10 drives; Akron on 5 of its 11.
Ohio’s drives are teal, Akron’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Akron’s side
Akron’s best moment: Gant 1-yd TD run, Akron goes ahead 17-14 (Q4 9:35). It lifted Akron’s win chance by 30 points.
5 lead changes.
What it cost
Ohio’s chance to win the conference rose from 27% to 31%.
Win the conference
Before the game (November 3, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Ohio plays at Miami (OH) on Tue Nov 10 with a 31% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Ohio 28, Akron 20
Akron covered +12.5 by 4.5. The total, 48, stayed under 52.5.
| Team totals | Ohio | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 358 | 392 |
| Passing | 12 of 20, 197 yds | 22 of 35, 232 yds |
| Rushing | 26 for 161 yds | 44 for 160 yds |
| First downs | 12 | 26 |
| Third down | 3 of 9 | 5 of 12 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Penalties | 8 for 88 yds | 5 for 30 yds |
| Time of possession | 24:14 | 35:46 |
Ohio leaders
- Passing Nick Poulos 12 of 20, 197 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Duncan Brune 10 for 111 yds, 1 TD; Nick Poulos 9 for 45 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Dom Dorwart 4 for 108 yds, 1 TD; Riley Neer 4 for 54 yds
Akron leaders
- Passing Cibastian Broughton 22 of 34, 232 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Jordan Gant 16 for 112 yds, 1 TD; Sean Patrick 5 for 34 yds
- Receiving Kyan Mason 6 for 71 yds; Connor Cravaack 5 for 43 yds
No rain through the game
59° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 48°, with about 7 in 10 games between 37° and 62°.
November game-day temperatures at InfoCision Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Akron airport, 3.2 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Ohio · 6-2
Rated 50th in our preseason ratings, 58th now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 29-27 vs Jacksonville State No. 63 of 668 teams
won by 2 as a 1.5-point favorite
Last three games
Akron · 1-7
Rated 58th in our preseason ratings, 157th now.
Three straight losses.
Week by week
Akron
- Wk 4Lvs UNLV10-38
- Wk 5Lat Central Michigan17-41
- Wk 6Lvs Eastern Michigan23-25
- Wk 7Lat Miami (OH)14-34
- Wk 8Lat Kent State20-35
Ohio
- Wk 4Wvs Stonehill35-7
- Wk 5Wat Kent State13-10
- Wk 6Wvs Central Michigan31-14
- Wk 7Wat Sacramento State48-7
- Wk 8Wvs Eastern Michigan24-20
Power rating by week
Ohio is rated 8.2 points ahead as of week 9. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Ohio’s EPA/play against Akron, 58 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Ohio’s EPA/play against Akron’s defense
Ohio offense, 67th percentile · Akron defense, 9th
Ohio’s explosive plays against Akron’s defense
Ohio offense, 47th percentile · Akron defense, 1st
Ohio’s passing EPA against Akron’s defense
Ohio offense, 60th percentile · Akron defense, 10th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Ohio leads the series 23-10
33 meetings since 1992 · Ohio has won the last 7
- 2024Ohio 30-10
- 2023Ohio 25-14
- 2022Ohio 55-34
- 2021Ohio 34-17
- 2020Ohio 24-10
Each line is Akron’s chance to win through that meeting. Akron is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on Akron’s chances here.
Ohio favored by 12.5 · Total 52.5
How games like this usually go
Ohio by 12.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 449 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The total rose 3 points.
Total: 49.5 → 52.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Akron is worth +3.4 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 36th percentile.
18% at home, 13% on the road against FBS opponents (7-31 home, 7-47 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.8 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 125 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Akron 37, Ohio 34Nov 14, 2017
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.