cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Richard Toney /Purdue

Richard Toney

DB · Purdue · Sr · #2

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

3 TACKLES · 0 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Purdue for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Purdue for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Defensive back · Purdue

Returning around him

  • 54% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
  • Transfer portal: +5 net (29 in / 24 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Purdue · Last season: 2-10 · Talent rank #54 · 2026 recruiting class #99

DB · PURDUE · BIG TEN

Richard Toney

  • 4
  • #2
  • 6-0 | 195 lb
  • Arlington, TX

CFB Zeitgeist Score

13

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 24th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#11148

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DB AWARD

Jim Thorpe

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R03 · Backup

Backup. On the two-deep, pushing for snaps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#2215 national
CFB
College
3 teams
2022–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds

#19 in market ▼ from #16 · 6 books

+28003.4% implied▼ lengthened from +2500

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionDB
Class4
Jersey2
Measurements6-0 | 195 lb
HometownArlington, TX
Primary teamPurdue

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 2215 recruit
Composite rating 0.8115 HighSchool
Signed with Nevada 2021
Origin Arlington Arlington, TX, USA
Class Profile Context
2021 3-star | 0.8115 No. 2215 recruit | HighSchool | Nevada

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#11148Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#11252Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Nevada

Composite

0.8115

#2215 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Richard Toney

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Richard Toney

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 2g
3Tackles
0Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
20Tackles
0Tackles for loss
0Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 3): needs 7/game over remaining 11.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 3): needs 8.8/game over remaining 11.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 0.5/game over remaining 11.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 0.9/game over remaining 11.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Richard Toney is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Purdue's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 0.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #11148 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Transfer path 0 portal moves

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 3 2 solo | #3908/4942 (21st pct)
TFL 0.0 Backfield disruption | #3020/4972 (39th pct)
Sacks 0.0 Pass-rush finish | #1762/4972 (65th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Defensive contributor against FBS defenders.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
3 21st
SOLO
2 22nd
TFL
0.0 39th
SACK
0.0 65th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 2 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 31-0vs Ball State210.00.00Season-high 2 tackles
Wk 3L 17-33vs USC110.00.00
Total320.00.00
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Nevada2-10HC: Ken Wilson · Balanced
2023Nevada2-10HC: Ken Wilson · Run-leaning
2024TCU9-4HC: Sonny Dykes · Pass-leaning
2025Purdue2-10HC: Barry Odom · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Purdue320.00.0------
2024TCU940.00.01----
2023Nevada62423.51.012--
2022Nevada870.00.0------
Career4 loaded seasons82553.51.022--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 0 Coverage disruption
QB pressures 0 Quarterback hurries
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 3 #3908/4942 21st pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 0.0 #3020/4972 39th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 0.0 #1762/4972 65th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 2 #3597/4584 22nd pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 2 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home2g1.50.00.00.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins1g2.00.00.00.0
Losses1g1.00.00.00.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-72g1.50.00.00.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the DB cohort

13Below cohort
6 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: tackles (0th).

Sacks#1575 / 2975 · 24th pct
0.0defe
QB hurries#1662 / 2975 · 22nd pct
0defe
Passes defended#1916 / 2975 · 18th pct
0defe
Tackles for loss#2548 / 2975 · 7th pct
0.0defe
Solo tackles#2951 / 2975 · 1st pct
2defe
Tackles#2976 / 2975 · 0th pct
3defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · DB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Richard ToneyPurdueTyler MartinMassachusetts· 39% simBlake FletcherAir Force· 34% simTahj Ra-ElPurdue· 33% sim
Sacks
24
Toney
24
Martin
24
Fletcher
24
Ra-El
QB hurries
22
Toney
22
Martin
92
Fletcher
22
Ra-El
Passes defended
18
Toney
67
Martin
67
Fletcher
91
Ra-El
Tackles for loss
7
Toney
63
Martin
28
Fletcher
56
Ra-El
Solo tackles
1
Toney
87
Martin
91
Fletcher
100
Ra-El
Tackles
0
Toney
98
Martin
99
Fletcher
99
Ra-El

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Barry Odom

Pass share

52.0%

404 pass / 373 run

Plays / game

64.8

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

4.9%

348 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

3 coaches
2022
Jeff Brohm
Purdue
2023
Ryan Walters
Purdue
era →
2024
Ryan Walters
Purdue
2025
Barry Odom
Purdue
era →

Played under 3 different head coaches: Jeff Brohm, Ryan Walters, and Barry Odom. Multi-era developmental context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownArlington, TX
Height6'0"
Weight195 lb
Class4
PositionDB
Jersey2

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 TCU DB4 #11148 #11252 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big 12
2023 Nevada DB4 #12377 #13285 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Mountain West
2022 Nevada DB4 #14471 #14602 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Mountain West

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Purdue Big Ten DB 4 No. 2 | 6-0 | 195 lb | Arlington, TX
2024 TCU Big 12 DB 4 No. 2 | 6-0 | 195 lb | Arlington, TX
2023 Nevada Mountain West DB 4 No. 2 | 6-0 | 195 lb | Arlington, TX
2022 Nevada Mountain West DB 4 No. 2 | 6-0 | 195 lb | Arlington, TX