Kent State at Bowling Green
Bowling Green (2‑7) hosts Kent State (3‑6). Too early for a market line, but the model likes Bowling Green (68%). Bowling Green’s offense is at the 12th percentile on explosive plays; Kent State’s defense is at the 70th.
How they got here
Last three games
Kent State · 3-6
Rated 122nd in our preseason ratings, 186th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Bowling Green · 2-7
Rated 117th in our preseason ratings, 147th now.
Three straight losses.
Biggest mismatch: Bowling Green’s explosive plays against Kent State, 58 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Bowling Green’s explosive plays against Kent State’s defense
Bowling Green offense, 12th percentile · Kent State defense, 70th
Bowling Green’s rushing EPA against Kent State’s defense
Bowling Green offense, 11th percentile · Kent State defense, 47th
Kent State’s EPA/play against Bowling Green’s defense
Kent State offense, 1st percentile · Bowling Green defense, 27th
What’s at stake
Kent State
- Mark Carney is ahead of Kenni Burns’s year-2 pace (3-6 vs. 0-9) — a win here widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
Bowling Green
- Bowling Green is the MAC program whose Doyt Perry 1950s-1960s dynasty + Urban Meyer 2001-2002 ascent + Doyt Perry Stadium tradition define what historic-Ohio-MAC-football looks like.
The series
Bowling Green leads the series 47-16
63 meetings since 1962 · Kent State won the last meeting
- 2025Kent State 24-21
- 2024Bowling Green 27-6
- 2023Bowling Green 49-19
- 2022Kent State 40-6
- 2021Kent State 27-20
Each line is Bowling Green’s chance to win through that meeting. Bowling Green is 0-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Kent State
The chip · vs the national mediaKent State fans have watched the program get written off as a MAC afterthought during the 1-23 stretch -- and answered with a coach promoted from the same staff that presided over it, turning the roster around fast enough to reclaim the Wagon Wheel in overtime.
What this game touches
The 1-23 stretch under Kenni Burns. Kent State won a single game combined across the 2023 and 2024 seasons before Burns was fired in April 2025 -- one of the worst two-year stretches in modern MAC history, and the standard every Mark Carney win is measured against.
Bowling Green
The chip · vs the national mediaFalcon fans will remind you that Urban Meyer's whole legend started here, in their building — and they say the pundits who can't place Bowling Green on a map are the same ones who'll act surprised when the place produces the next big name.
What this game touches
The 4-8 reset under a famous new face. Eddie George's debut went 4-8 (2-6 MAC) — a transition year with a transfer-built roster that fell short of a bowl, the kind of rebuild season that tests whether a marquee name can translate to wins in Bowling Green.
Best players
Kent State
- Wayne Harris (WR) · 661 receiving yards
- Hayden Dawahare (LB) · 47 tackles
- Joel Cordoba (DB) · 41 tackles
Bowling Green
- Dorian Pringle (LB) · 87 tackles
- Kal-El Pascal (S) · 62 tackles
- Cashmire Lewis (LB) · 45 tackles
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Doyt L. Perry Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 88
Kent State at Bowling Green · Tuesday, Nov. 10 · 7 pm ET · Doyt L. Perry Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Doyt L. Perry Stadium: noon Saturdays score 88, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 88.
- noon: 88, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Bowling Green is worth +2.4 points (±4.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 20th percentile.
33% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (13-26 home, 17-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.2 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 121 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Bowling Green
- Wk 5Wat Miami (OH)24-20
- Wk 6Wvs Sacramento State38-10
- Wk 7Lvs Ball State31-32
- Wk 8Lat Buffalo24-31
- Wk 9Lat Western Michigan10-23
Kent State
- Wk 5Lvs Ohio10-13
- Wk 6Lat Western Michigan7-38
- Wk 7Lat South Florida2-29
- Wk 8Wvs Akron35-20
- Wk 9Lat Sacramento State10-31
Power rating by week
Bowling Green is rated 2.9 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Bowling Green8th2-3
- Kent State9th2-3