Sacramento State upsets Kent State 31-10

Team pages: Kent State · Sacramento State

Kent State3-610
Sacramento State2-731Final
Fri, Oct 30 · Hornet Stadium, Sacramento, Calif. · Crowd 9,931ESPN2

Sacramento State beat Kent State 31-10 as a 7.5-point underdog.

We had Kent State favored. Sacramento State won.

Next: Kent State at Bowling Green, Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET

Next: Sacramento State vs Toledo, Wed Nov 4 · 7:00 PM ET · Sacramento State underdog by 25.5

This guy leaves every ball he throws in the air way too long. It’s absolutely crazy.
A Sacramento State fan

How it swung

The turning point: DeShields 92-yd TD pass to Harris, Kent State goes ahead 7-0 (Q1, 7:25). Sacramento State went from 34% to 19% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Sacramento State a 21% chance, and the closing betting line (Sacramento State was a 7.5-point underdog) put it at 27%.

92-yard TD passKent State · Q1 7:25Pick-sixSacramento State · Q4 9:04
FinalSacramento State 31-10 Kent StateSacramento State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q421% at halfKent StateLowest 15%Won31-1012−15+15ScoresChatterquietquietquietquietquietquietquietloudsteadyloudloudsteadyquietloudsteadysteadyquietsteadyloudsteadysteadyloudloudsteadysteadysteadyloudsteadysteadyloudquietquietquietquietsteadyquietquietquietsteadyquietquietsteadysteadysteadyquietsteadysteadyquietloudloudloudloudsteadysteadyloudest stretchloudloudloud
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q421% at halfKent StateLowest 15%Won31-1012ScoresChatterquietquietquietquietquietquietquietloudsteadyloudloudsteadyquietloudsteadysteadyquietsteadyloudsteadysteadyloudloudsteadysteadysteadyloudsteadysteadyloudquietquietquietquietsteadyquietquietquietsteadyquietquietsteadysteadysteadyquietsteadysteadyquietloudloudloudloudsteadysteadyloudest stretchloudloudloud
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q479% at halfKent StateHigh 85%Lost10-3112+15−15ScoresChatterquietquietquietquietquietquietquietloudsteadyloudloudsteadyquietloudsteadysteadyquietsteadyloudsteadysteadyloudloudsteadysteadysteadyloudsteadysteadyloudquietquietquietquietsteadyquietquietquietsteadyquietquietsteadysteadysteadyquietsteadysteadyquietloudloudloudloudsteadysteadyloudest stretchloudloudloud
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q479% at halfKent StateHigh 85%Lost10-3112ScoresChatterquietquietquietquietquietquietquietloudsteadyloudloudsteadyquietloudsteadysteadyquietsteadyloudsteadysteadyloudloudsteadysteadysteadyloudsteadysteadyloudquietquietquietquietsteadyquietquietquietsteadyquietquietsteadysteadysteadyquietsteadysteadyquietloudloudloudloudsteadysteadyloudest stretchloudloudloud

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 7:25DeShields 92-yd TD pass to Harris, Kent State goes ahead 7-0Sacramento State 34% → 19% (−15)
  2. 2Q4 9:04InterceptionDeShields intercepted by Turner at the Kent State 38 and returned for a TDSacramento State 81% → 96% (+15)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 7:25DeShields 92-yd TD pass to Harris, Kent State goes ahead 7-0Kent State 66% → 81% (+15)
  2. 2Q4 9:04InterceptionDeShields intercepted by Turner at the Kent State 38 and returned for a TDKent State 19% → 4% (−15)

Kent State is getting relegated to the Pioneer league. Their new rivals will be Dayton, Robert Morris and Youngstown State

Q4 5:15 · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q2 11:50If ESPN had cameras from this millennium, we’d have a better look at itr/CFB game threadWhat????? Lmaor/CFB game thread
  2. Q4 8:07DeShields fumbles after lowering shoulder on own lineman, giving Sacramento State the ballLowers the shoulder on his own OL and fumblesr/CFB game threadBUTT FUMBLEr/CFB game thread
  3. Q4 5:15Fans mock DeShields after he fumbles and loses the ball to Sacramento StateDeshields actually gets NIL money lmaor/CFB game thread
  4. Q4 2:59Kent State turns it over on downs, Sacramento State scores to lead 31-10I want to be as hyped as the Sac State coach is rn on a random Friday night lmaor/CFB game thread* Kent read * Kent write * Kent even beat Sacramento Stater/CFB game thread
Sacramento State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Kent State -7.5), at 33% for Sacramento State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Sacramento State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 7:25DeShields 92-yd TD pass to HarrisKent State goes ahead 7-0Q1, 7:25 · Sacramento State 0, Kent State 7▼15%Sacramento State’s chance to win, 34% to 19%▼15%Sacramento State’s chance to win, 34% to 19%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q2, 3:25DeShields 0-yd pass to WhitefumbledQ2, 3:25 · Sacramento State 6, Kent State 7▲8%Sacramento State’s chance to win, 32% to 40%▲8%Sacramento State’s chance to win, 32% to 40%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q3, 3:38DeShields sacked for a 4-yd lossQ3, 3:38 · Sacramento State 9, Kent State 10▲2%Sacramento State’s chance to win, 36% to 38%▲2%Sacramento State’s chance to win, 36% to 38%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q4, 9:04DeShields intercepted by Turner at the Kent State 38returned for a TDQ4, 9:04 · Sacramento State 24, Kent State 10▲15%Sacramento State’s chance to win, 81% to 96%▲15%Sacramento State’s chance to win, 81% to 96%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q4, 2:55Ene 5-yd TD runSacramento State leads 31-10Q4, 2:55 · Sacramento State 31, Kent State 1031-10score after the play31-10score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q4, 1:55Good intercepted by Nichols at the Sacramento State 0Q4, 1:55 · Sacramento State 31, Kent State 10▲3%Sacramento State’s chance to win, 95% to 98%▲3%Sacramento State’s chance to win, 95% to 98%Watch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Sacramento State scored on 4 of its 13 drives; Kent State on 4 of its 14.

Sacramento State’s drives are teal, Kent State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Sacramento State: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 76FumbleKent State: Turned over on downs, from 24 yards out to 15DownsSacramento State: Punt, from 85 yards out to 61PuntKent State: Touchdown, from 94 yards out to 0TouchdownSacramento State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntKent State: Punt, from 70 yards out to 68PuntSacramento State: Field goal, from 73 yards out to 24Field goalQ2Kent State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntSacramento State: Field goal, from 67 yards out to 10Field goalKent State: Fumble, from 58 yards out to 48FumbleSacramento State: Punt, from 46 yards out to 42PuntKent State: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 13Field goalQ3Kent State: Punt, from 71 yards out to 53PuntSacramento State: Field goal, from 84 yards out to 18Field goalKent State: Touchdown, from 79 yards out to 0TouchdownSacramento State: Touchdown, from 35 yards out to 0TouchdownKent State: Punt, from 90 yards out to 55PuntSacramento State: Punt, from 82 yards out to 42PuntQ4Kent State: Punt returned for a touchdown, from 90 yards out to 55Punt TDKent State: Fumble, from 54 yards out to 39FumbleSacramento State: Interception, from 44 yards out to 42InterceptionKent State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 84PuntSacramento State: Fumble, from 57 yards out to 20FumbleKent State: Punt, from 96 yards out to 93PuntSacramento State: Turned over on downs, from 5 yards out to 4DownsKent State: Touchdown, from 60 yards out to 0TouchdownSacramento State: Interception, from 80 yards out to 26Interception

From Kent State’s side

Kent State’s best moment: DeShields 92-yd TD pass to Harris, Kent State goes ahead 7-0 (Q1 7:25). It lifted Kent State’s win chance by 15 points.

How Kent State fans took it: “I'll probably see you guys on the 10th vs bowling green and ill still be a Dru DeShields defender. have a nice night” r/CFB game thread

How fans reacted

Steady

It was the fourth quarter that had fans talking the most.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthSacramento State fansKent State fans

The winner fell to 15%.

What it cost

Kent State’s chance to win the conference fell from 1% to 0%.

Win the conference

Kent State · lost1% → ▼0%
Sacramento State · won0% → 0%

Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Kent State plays at Bowling Green on Tue Nov 10 with a 0% chance to win the conference.

Box score

Sacramento State 31, Kent State 10

Sacramento State covered +7.5 by 28.5. The total, 41, stayed under 47.5.

Kent StateSacramento StateTotal yardsKent State 302Sacramento State 278302278Passing yardsKent State 209Sacramento State 117209117Rushing yardsKent State 93Sacramento State 16193161First downsKent State 15Sacramento State 161516TurnoversKent State 5Sacramento State 151Time of possessionKent State 25:13Sacramento State 34:4725:1334:47
Team totalsKent StateSacramento State
Total yards302278
Passing17 of 38, 209 yds14 of 25, 117 yds
Rushing24 for 93 yds42 for 161 yds
First downs1516
Third down4 of 136 of 17
Fourth down1 of 30 of 0
Turnovers51
Penalties6 for 46 yds10 for 89 yds
Time of possession25:1334:47

Kent State leaders

  • Passing Dru Deshields 16 of 33, 190 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Dru Deshields 10 for 43 yds; Brandon White 10 for 33 yds
  • Receiving Wayne Harris 3 for 122 yds, 1 TD; Brendyn Smith 4 for 39 yds

Sacramento State leaders

  • Passing Jackson Sharman 14 of 25, 117 yds
  • Rushing Isaiah Ene 19 for 107 yds, 2 TD; Daniel Swinney 7 for 43 yds
  • Receiving Onterrio Smith Jr. 2 for 40 yds; Raiden Brown 4 for 36 yds

No rain and calm

59° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the south-southwest, gusts to 15

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Sacramento State favoredKent State favored100%Win chanceSacramento StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Sacramento State favoredKent State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 2:42 left10:10 p.m.
Kent State 10, Sacramento State 17 · Sacramento State 69% to win
no rain · wind 7 mph from the south-southwest · 57°
White 8-yd run

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Sacramento/executiv airport, 5.2 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Kent State · 3-5

Rated 122nd in our preseason ratings, 149th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 35-20 vs Akron No. 150 of 668 teams

won by 15 as a 3-point favorite

Kent State won 35-20 vs Akron. Chance to win started at 67%, low 23%, high better than 99%.

L 2-29 @ South Florida No. 59 of 668 teams

lost by 27 as a 20.5-point underdog

Kent State lost 2-29 at South Florida. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 17%.

L 7-38 @ Western Michigan No. 39 of 668 teams

lost by 31 as a 13.5-point underdog

Kent State lost 7-38 at Western Michigan. Chance to win started at 13%, low under 1%, high 15%.

L 10-13 vs Ohio No. 62 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog

Kent State lost 10-13 vs Ohio. Chance to win started at 45%, low 1%, high 59%.

W 26-13 vs Ball State No. 164 of 668 teams

won by 13 as a 2.5-point favorite

Kent State won 26-13 vs Ball State. Chance to win started at 67%, low 60%, high better than 99%.

L 3-59 @ Ohio StateTop 25 No. 1 of 668 teams

lost by 56 as a 52.5-point underdog

Kent State lost 3-59 at Ohio State. Never had a real chance.

W 36-15 vs Wofford No. 195 of 668 teams

won by 21 as a 10-point favorite

Kent State won 36-15 vs Wofford. Chance to win started at 83%, low 51%, high better than 99%.

L 0-57 @ South CarolinaTop 25 No. 17 of 668 teams

lost by 57 as a 35.5-point underdog

Kent State lost 0-57 at South Carolina. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 2%.

Last three games

Sacramento State · 1-7

Rated 131st in our preseason ratings, 251st now.

Three straight losses.

L 17-34 @ Ball State No. 154 of 668 teams

lost by 17 as a 14.5-point underdog

Sacramento State lost 17-34 at Ball State. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 29%.

L 7-48 vs Ohio No. 55 of 668 teams

lost by 41 as a 17.5-point underdog

Sacramento State lost 7-48 vs Ohio. Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 19%.

L 10-38 @ Bowling Green No. 136 of 668 teams

lost by 28 as a 9.5-point underdog

Sacramento State lost 10-38 at Bowling Green. Chance to win started at 18%, low under 1%, high 38%.

Week by week

Sacramento State

Wk 3: L 10-31 vs North Dakota State▼21N. Dakot…Wk 4: L 6-35 vs Massachusetts▼29Massachu…Wk 6: L 10-38 at Bowling Green▼28Bowling…Wk 7: L 7-48 vs Ohio▼41OhioWk 8: L 17-34 at Ball State▼17Ball St.
  • Wk 3Lvs North Dakota State10-31
  • Wk 4Lvs Massachusetts6-35
  • Wk 6Lat Bowling Green10-38
  • Wk 7Lvs Ohio7-48
  • Wk 8Lat Ball State17-34

Kent State

Wk 4: W 26-13 vs Ball State▲13Ball St.Wk 5: L 10-13 vs Ohio▼3OhioWk 6: L 7-38 at Western Michigan▼31W. Michi…Wk 7: L 2-29 at South Florida▼27S. Flori…Wk 8: W 35-20 vs Akron▲15Akron
  • Wk 4Wvs Ball State26-13
  • Wk 5Lvs Ohio10-13
  • Wk 6Lat Western Michigan7-38
  • Wk 7Lat South Florida2-29
  • Wk 8Wvs Akron35-20

Power rating by week

Kent State is rated 7.1 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-3-8-14Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8Sacramento StateKent State

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Kent State’s success rate against Sacramento State, 69 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Sacramento State’s explosive plays against Kent State’s defense

    67 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Sacramento State offense, 3rd percentile · Kent State defense, 70th

  2. Kent State’s success rate against Sacramento State’s defense

    69 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Kent State offense, 1st percentile · Sacramento State defense, 70th

  3. Kent State’s rushing EPA against Sacramento State’s defense

    64 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Kent State offense, 0th percentile · Sacramento State defense, 64th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Kent StateSacramento State
EPA/play, offense
Kent State · 1Sacramento State · 3
EPA/play, defense
Kent State · 38Sacramento State · 40
Success rate, offense
Kent State · 1Sacramento State · 11
Success rate, defense
Kent State · 17Sacramento State · 70
Explosive-play rate, offense
Kent State · 75Sacramento State · 3
Explosive-play rate, defense
Kent State · 70Sacramento State · 11
Rush EPA, offense
Kent State · 0Sacramento State · 2
Rush EPA, defense
Kent State · 47Sacramento State · 64
Pass EPA, offense
Kent State · 18Sacramento State · 11
Pass EPA, defense
Kent State · 39Sacramento State · 20

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Sacramento State’s chances here.

50-50Model 21% · Line 27%Kent StateSacramento State

Kent State favored by 7.5 · Total 47.5

How games like this usually go

Kent State by 7.5, on the usual path until Q3 3:38

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 448 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Sacramento State.

opened +9.5now +7.5

The total rose 2 points.

opened 45.5now 47.5

Spread: +9.5 → +7.5 · Total: 45.5 → 47.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Sacramento State is worth −2.9 points (±12.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 0th percentile.

25% at home, 15% on the road against FBS opponents (1-3 home, 2-11 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.0 at home vs. away over 61 games — inside the ±7.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 2,116 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Mid-American standings