Western Michigan beats Bowling Green 23-10

Team pages: Bowling Green · Western Michigan

Bowling Green2-710
Western Michigan6-323Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, Mich. · Crowd 20,179CBS Sports Network

Western Michigan beat Bowling Green 23-10.

We had Western Michigan favored. It won.

Next: Bowling Green vs Kent State, Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET

Next: Western Michigan at Akron, Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Cabana 82-yd TD run, ties it 7-7 (Q1, 3:12). Western Michigan went from 66% to 83% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Western Michigan an 87% chance, and the closing betting line (Western Michigan was a 14-point favorite) put it at 87%.

Favored the whole way: Western Michigan never fell below 63%.

Bowling Green never had better than a 37% chance.

82-yard TD runWestern Michigan · Q1 3:12
FinalWestern Michigan 23-10 Bowling GreenWestern Michigan wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q487% at halfWestern MichiganWon23-101+17Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q487% at halfWestern MichiganWon23-101Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q413% at halfWestern MichiganLost10-231−17Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q413% at halfWestern MichiganLost10-231Scores

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 3:12Cabana 82-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Western Michigan 66% → 83% (+17)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 3:12Cabana 82-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Bowling Green 34% → 17% (−17)
Western Michigan’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Western Michigan -14), at 88% for Western Michigan (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Western Michigan’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 7:00Kastantin 7-yd TD pass to WhiteBowling Green goes ahead 7-0Q1, 7:00 · Western Michigan 0, Bowling Green 7▼8%Western Michigan’s chance to win, 78% to 70%▼8%Western Michigan’s chance to win, 78% to 70%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  2. Q1, 3:12Cabana 82-yd TD runties it 7-7Q1, 3:12 · Western Michigan 7, Bowling Green 7▲17%Western Michigan’s chance to win, 66% to 83%▲17%Western Michigan’s chance to win, 66% to 83%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  3. Q2, 6:36Lowry 6-yd TD pass to BrothertonWestern Michigan goes ahead 14-7Q2, 6:36 · Western Michigan 14, Bowling Green 7▲5%Western Michigan’s chance to win, 86% to 91%▲5%Western Michigan’s chance to win, 86% to 91%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  4. Q2, 1:46Lowry sacked for a 6-yd lossQ2, 1:46 · Western Michigan 14, Bowling Green 7▼2%Western Michigan’s chance to win, 93% to 91%▼2%Western Michigan’s chance to win, 93% to 91%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  5. Q2, 0:37Kastantin sacked for a 6-yd lossQ2, 0:37 · Western Michigan 14, Bowling Green 7▲2%Western Michigan’s chance to win, 89% to 91%▲2%Western Michigan’s chance to win, 89% to 91%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  6. Q4, 6:29Ridley intercepted by Betts at the WMU07Q4, 6:29 · Western Michigan 20, Bowling Green 10▲3%Western Michigan’s chance to win, 96% to 99%▲3%Western Michigan’s chance to win, 96% to 99%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  7. Q4, 1:58Kastantin intercepted by Louis at the BGS22Q4, 1:58 · Western Michigan 20, Bowling Green 10▲5%Western Michigan’s chance to win, 95% to 100%▲5%Western Michigan’s chance to win, 95% to 100%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  8. Q4, 0:12Kastantin intercepted by McCullough at the BGS49Q4, 0:12 · Western Michigan 23, Bowling Green 10▲2%Western Michigan’s chance to win, 98% to 100%▲2%Western Michigan’s chance to win, 98% to 100%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football

Every drive

Western Michigan scored on 5 of its 13 drives; Bowling Green on 2 of its 13.

Western Michigan’s drives are teal, Bowling Green’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Western Michigan: Punt, from 81 yards out to 74PuntBowling Green: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownWestern Michigan: Punt, from 78 yards out to 71PuntBowling Green: Punt, from 75 yards out to 75PuntWestern Michigan: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownBowling Green: Punt, from 82 yards out to 75PuntWestern Michigan: Punt, from 73 yards out to 58PuntQ2Bowling Green: Punt, from 85 yards out to 79PuntWestern Michigan: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownBowling Green: Punt, from 73 yards out to 66PuntWestern Michigan: Fumble, from 63 yards out to 58FumbleBowling Green: Punt, from 42 yards out to 38PuntWestern Michigan: Punt, from 91 yards out to 75PuntBowling Green: Field goal, from 81 yards out to 30Field goalQ3Bowling Green: Punt, from 78 yards out to 60PuntWestern Michigan: Field goal, from 78 yards out to 14Field goalBowling Green: Missed field goal, from 78 yards out to 14Missed FGWestern Michigan: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 32Field goalQ4Bowling Green: Punt, from 78 yards out to 76PuntWestern Michigan: Fumble, from 69 yards out to 39FumbleBowling Green: Interception, from 61 yards out to 19InterceptionWestern Michigan: Punt, from 93 yards out to 77PuntBowling Green: Interception, from 92 yards out to 93InterceptionWestern Michigan: Field goal, from 22 yards out to 28Field goalBowling Green: Interception, from 65 yards out to 65InterceptionWestern Michigan: End of game, from 49 yards out to 50End of game

What it cost

Western Michigan’s chance to win the conference rose from 35% to 39%.

Win the conference

Bowling Green · lost0% → 0%
Western Michigan · won35% → ▲39%35%▲ 39%

Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Western Michigan plays at Akron on Tue Nov 10 with a 39% chance to win the conference.

Box score

Western Michigan 23, Bowling Green 10

Bowling Green covered +14 by 1. The total, 33, stayed under 44.5.

Bowling GreenWestern MichiganTotal yardsBowling Green 274Western Michigan 336274336Passing yardsBowling Green 149Western Michigan 146149146Rushing yardsBowling Green 125Western Michigan 190125190First downsBowling Green 16Western Michigan 151615TurnoversBowling Green 3Western Michigan 232Time of possessionBowling Green 32:18Western Michigan 27:4232:1827:42
Team totalsBowling GreenWestern Michigan
Total yards274336
Passing20 of 32, 149 yds9 of 18, 146 yds
Rushing30 for 125 yds39 for 190 yds
First downs1615
Third down7 of 164 of 14
Fourth down0 of 10 of 0
Turnovers32
Penalties5 for 41 yds2 for 20 yds
Time of possession32:1827:42

Bowling Green leaders

  • Passing Jay Kastantin 20 of 31, 149 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Nakai Amachree 11 for 61 yds; Jay Kastantin 10 for 41 yds
  • Receiving Eli Jacon-Duffy 4 for 41 yds; Brennan Ridley 3 for 36 yds

Western Michigan leaders

  • Passing Broc Lowry 9 of 18, 146 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Cole Cabana 7 for 110 yds, 1 TD; Jalen Buckley 24 for 77 yds
  • Receiving Aveion Chenault 5 for 109 yds; Baylin Brooks 1 for 13 yds

No rain and calm

57° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the south-southeast, gusts to 16

The usual here around this date is 46°, with about 7 in 10 games between 39° and 55°.

October game-day temperatures at Waldo Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Western Michigan favoredBowling Green favored100%Win chanceWestern MichiganRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Western Michigan favoredBowling Green favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 3:12 left12:30 p.m.
Bowling Green 7, Western Michigan 7 · Western Michigan 83% to win
no rain · wind 7 mph from the southeast, gusts to 14 · 58°
Cabana 82-yd TD run, ties it 7-7

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Kalamazoo airport, 4.3 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Bowling Green · 2-6

Rated 117th in our preseason ratings, 156th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 24-31 @ Buffalo No. 129 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 3-point underdog

Bowling Green lost 24-31 at Buffalo. Chance to win started at 33%, low under 1%, high 71%.

L 31-32 vs Ball State No. 157 of 668 teams

lost by 1 as a 6-point favorite

Bowling Green lost 31-32 vs Ball State. Chance to win started at 72%, low under 1%, high 97%.

W 38-10 vs Sacramento State No. 202 of 668 teams

won by 28 as a 9.5-point favorite

Bowling Green won 38-10 vs Sacramento State. Chance to win started at 82%, low 62%, high better than 99%.

W 24-20 @ Miami (OH) No. 101 of 668 teams

won by 4 as a 10.5-point underdog

Bowling Green won 24-20 at Miami (OH). Chance to win started at 16%, low 14%, high better than 99%.

L 6-14 vs South Florida No. 57 of 668 teams

lost by 8 as a 17.5-point underdog

Bowling Green lost 6-14 vs South Florida. Chance to win started at 16%, low 3%, high 57%.

L 7-55 @ Iowa State No. 114 of 668 teams

lost by 48 as a 22.5-point underdog

Bowling Green lost 7-55 at Iowa State. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 9%.

L 7-56 @ Nebraska No. 37 of 668 teams

lost by 49 as a 30.5-point underdog

Bowling Green lost 7-56 at Nebraska. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 3%.

L 13-20 vs Tarleton State No. 94 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 1.5-point favorite

Bowling Green lost 13-20 vs Tarleton State. Chance to win started at 60%, low under 1%, high 66%.

Last three games

Western Michigan · 5-3

Rated 24th in our preseason ratings, 44th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 38-45 @ Toledo No. 38 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog

Western Michigan lost 38-45 at Toledo. Chance to win started at 33%, low under 1%, high 47%.

W 21-14 @ Central Michigan No. 123 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite

Western Michigan won 21-14 at Central Michigan. Chance to win started at 64%, low 53%, high better than 99%.

W 38-7 vs Kent State No. 143 of 668 teams

won by 31 as a 13.5-point favorite

Western Michigan won 38-7 vs Kent State. Chance to win started at 87%, low 85%, high better than 99%.

W 20-17 @ Buffalo No. 160 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite

Western Michigan won 20-17 at Buffalo. Chance to win started at 76%, low 32%, high 91%.

L 7-32 vs Boise StateTop 25 No. 22 of 668 teams

lost by 25 as an 8.5-point underdog

Western Michigan lost 7-32 vs Boise State. Chance to win started at 34%, low under 1%, high 34%.

W 28-21 @ Rice No. 147 of 668 teams

won by 7 as an 8.5-point favorite

Western Michigan won 28-21 at Rice. Chance to win started at 65%, low 53%, high better than 99%.

W 49-14 vs Monmouth No. 158 of 668 teams

won by 35 as a 29.5-point favorite

Western Michigan won 49-14 vs Monmouth. Chance to win started at 98%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

L 12-13 @ MichiganTop 25 No. 18 of 668 teams

lost by 1 as a 27.5-point underdog

Western Michigan lost 12-13 at Michigan. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 90%.

Week by week

Western Michigan

Wk 4: L 7-32 vs Boise State▼25Boise St.Wk 5: W 20-17 at Buffalo▲3BuffaloWk 6: W 38-7 vs Kent State▲31Kent St.Wk 7: W 21-14 at Central Michigan▲7C. Michi…Wk 8: L 38-45 at Toledo▼7Toledo
  • Wk 4Lvs Boise State7-32
  • Wk 5Wat Buffalo20-17
  • Wk 6Wvs Kent State38-7
  • Wk 7Wat Central Michigan21-14
  • Wk 8Lat Toledo38-45

Bowling Green

Wk 4: L 6-14 vs South Florida▼8S. Flori…Wk 5: W 24-20 at Miami (OH)▲4M. (OH)Wk 6: W 38-10 vs Sacramento State▲28Sacramen…Wk 7: L 31-32 vs Ball State▼1Ball St.Wk 8: L 24-31 at Buffalo▼7Buffalo
  • Wk 4Lvs South Florida6-14
  • Wk 5Wat Miami (OH)24-20
  • Wk 6Wvs Sacramento State38-10
  • Wk 7Lvs Ball State31-32
  • Wk 8Lat Buffalo24-31

Power rating by week

Western Michigan is rated 10.1 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

101-8Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8Western MichiganBowling Green

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Bowling Green’s explosive plays against Western Michigan, 68 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Bowling Green’s explosive plays against Western Michigan’s defense

    68 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Bowling Green offense, 12th percentile · Western Michigan defense, 80th

  2. Bowling Green’s EPA/play against Western Michigan’s defense

    40 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Bowling Green offense, 13th percentile · Western Michigan defense, 53rd

  3. Western Michigan’s rushing EPA against Bowling Green’s defense

    46 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Western Michigan offense, 62nd percentile · Bowling Green defense, 16th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Bowling GreenWestern Michigan
EPA/play, offense
Bowling Green · 13Western Michigan · 43
EPA/play, defense
Bowling Green · 27Western Michigan · 53
Success rate, offense
Bowling Green · 18Western Michigan · 39
Success rate, defense
Bowling Green ·…Western Michigan · 32
Explosive-play rate, offense
Bowling Green · 12Western Michigan · 29
Explosive-play rate, defense
Bowling Green · 46Western Michigan · 80
Rush EPA, offense
Bowling Green · 11Western Michigan · 62
Rush EPA, defense
Bowling Green · 16Western Michigan · 49
Pass EPA, offense
Bowling Green · 35Western Michigan · 29
Pass EPA, defense
Bowling Green · 47Western Michigan · 52

The series

Bowling Green leads the series 29-19-2

50 meetings since 1962 · Bowling Green has won the last 3

Western Michigan wonBowling Green won1962: Bowling Green by 41963: Bowling Green by 91964: Bowling Green by 201965: Bowling Green by 41966: Western Michigan by 21967: Western Michigan by 41968: Bowling Green by 71969: Bowling Green by 111970: Western Michigan by 201971: Bowling Green by 171972: tie1973: Bowling Green by 111974: Bowling Green by 81975: Bowling Green by 281976: Bowling Green by 31977: Bowling Green by 201978: Western Michigan by 41979: Bowling Green by 121980: Bowling Green by 31981: Western Michigan by 141982: Bowling Green by 41983: Bowling Green by 31984: Bowling Green by 271985: Bowling Green by 411986: Bowling Green by 141987: Western Michigan by 71988: Western Michigan by 271989: Bowling Green by 11990: Western Michigan by 61991: Bowling Green by 131992: Bowling Green by 101993: tie1995: Western Michigan by 171996: Western Michigan by 31997: Western Michigan by 131998: Western Michigan by 292001: Western Michigan by 92002: Bowling Green by 32003: Bowling Green by 112004: Bowling Green by 522005: Western Michigan by 312010: Western Michigan by 342011: Western Michigan by 242014: Western Michigan by 122015: Bowling Green by 142018: Western Michigan by 72019: Western Michigan by 392022: Bowling Green by 42023: Bowling Green by 242024: Bowling Green by 1819622024
  • 2024Bowling Green 31-13Western Michigan lost 13-31 at Bowling Green. Chance to win started at 29%, low 1%, high 52%.
  • 2023Bowling Green 34-10Western Michigan lost 10-34 vs Bowling Green. Chance to win started at 36%, low under 1%, high 36%.
  • 2022Bowling Green 13-9Western Michigan lost 9-13 at Bowling Green. Chance to win started at 43%, low 6%, high 46%.
  • 2019Western Michigan 49-10Western Michigan won 49-10 vs Bowling Green. Chance to win started at 94%, low 91%, high better than 99%.
  • 2018Western Michigan 42-35Western Michigan won 42-35 at Bowling Green. Chance to win started at 81%, low 13%, high better than 99%.

Each line is Western Michigan’s chance to win through that meeting. Western Michigan is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Bowling Green fans are in a better mood than Western Michigan fans (94th percentile vs 57th among FBS fanbases), even with Western Michigan favored.

50-50Model 87% · Line 87%Western Michigan fans · 57thBowling Green fans · 94thBowling GreenWestern Michigan

Western Michigan favored by 14 · Total 44.5

How games like this usually go

Western Michigan by 14, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 448 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Bowling Green.

opened −15.5now −14

The total rose 1 point.

opened 43.5now 44.5

Spread: −15.5 → −14 · Total: 43.5 → 44.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Western Michigan is worth +4.0 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 46th percentile.

62% at home, 42% on the road against FBS opponents (24-15 home, 22-30 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.6 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 120 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Mid-American standings