Buffalo
1-1Mid-American · Pete Lembo, year 3 (15-12) · UB Stadium · 30,270 · 8,690 avg in 2026
LastL 20–33 at Florida International · Sat Sep 12 · Chance Morrow 173 rec yds, 2 TD, 1 tackles
Nextat Penn State · Sat Sep 19 · 12 pm ET · Beaver Stadium · Penn State by 39.5 · series 1-3, lost the last 3 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
All 90 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.00 EPA/play | 16 | 2 | 35 / 61 | 57.4 | 253 | 4.1 | 3 #60 FBS | 0 | 108.4 | 18 | 22.2 | 4.7 | 3.2 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| +0.37 EPA/play | 7 | 1 | 13 / 27 | 48.1 | 185 | 6.9 | 2 | 1 | 122.7 | — | 44.9 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.43 EPA/play | 25 | 2 | 23 | 80 | 3.5 | 0 | 17 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.68 EPA/play | 6 | 2 | 18 | 221 #20 FBS | 12.3 | 5 #1 FBS | 57 | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball Target· Boom-or-bustWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 5 of 58 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate27.8% 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume18 96th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chance Morrow's full player page | ||||||||
| -0.46 EPA/play | 5 | 2 | 6 | 46 | 7.7 | 0 | 25 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.05 EPA/play | 2 | 2 | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 | 20 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | 1 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 #22 FBS |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 21 of 84 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.5% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume16 bottom 22th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint View Saveon Brown's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 9 of 84 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.5% 84th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate6.2% 92th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Stevie Bracey's full player page | |||||||||
| 44 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centerfielder | 4 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 11 of 46 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.2% 64th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ronnell Davis's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 9 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 6 of 24 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 90th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Keontez Bradley's full player page | |||||||
| 6 | 2 | 12 | 2 #43 FBS | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 7 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| — | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 2 | 2/2 | 100 | 3/3 | 9 | 51 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 2 | 15 | 676 | 45.1 | 62 | 4 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 | 16 |
2026 stat leaders · Buffalo
through 2 games
2026 stat leaders · BuffaloChance Morrow leads Buffalo with 221 receiving yards through 2 games.
How They Play · 2025Buffalo fields a struggling offense behind a strong defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Buffalo reads strongest in rushing epa allowed (top 21%) and success rate allowed (top 30%); the crux lives in rushing epa, where Buffalo sits at the 6th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · Buffalo · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Buffalo is worth +3.9 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 45th percentile of 133 programs
55% at home, 49% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (21–17 home, 22–23 away). Interval ±4.3.
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Buffalo has beaten the number by −1.2 more at home than away over 73 games — inside the ±7.6 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
UB Stadium seats 30,270 and has averaged 46% full (13,887, 25 games reported). Visitors cover a median 292 miles to get here since 2018 — 33rd-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 19% of the 2026 roster (20 of 107 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 46 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
Scheme claims
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Buffalo's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 70th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 49th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Buffalo hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
7th percentile success on standard downs, 14th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| App State | 44th | 90th |
| Arizona | 92nd | 86th |
| Arkansas | 60th | 80th |
| Auburn | 75th | 55th |
| Ball State | 12th | 24th |
| Baylor | 40th | 96th |
| Boise State | 58th | 46th |
| Boston College | 27th | 56th |
| Buffalo | 7th | 14th |
| California | 9th | 25th |
| Central Michigan | 16th | 6th |
| Charlotte | 73rd | 83rd |
| Clemson | 1st | 19th |
| Coastal Carolina | 61st | 52nd |
| Colorado | 35th | 77th |
| Colorado State | 82nd | 91st |
| Delaware | 70th | 31st |
| Duke | 20th | 29th |
| Eastern Michigan | 52nd | 10th |
| Florida Atlantic | 43rd | 87th |
| Florida International | 46th | 43rd |
| Florida State | 28th | 65th |
| Georgia Southern | 24th | 45th |
| Georgia Tech | 58th | 44th |
| Hawai'i | 18th | 41st |
| Iowa State | 4th | 23rd |
| Jacksonville State | 65th | 82nd |
| Kansas | 70th | 35th |
| LSU | 33rd | 98th |
| Liberty | 14th | 59th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 92nd |
| Louisville | 96th | 70th |
| Memphis | 69th | 65th |
| Michigan | 2nd | 62nd |
| Michigan State | 62nd | 29th |
| Middle Tennessee | 87th | 68th |
| Missouri | 36th | 85th |
| Navy | 98th | 59th |
| Nevada | 77th | 52nd |
| New Mexico State | 45th | 75th |
| Norfolk State | 16th | 9th |
| North Dakota State | 86th | 27th |
| North Texas | 49th | 68th |
| Ohio | 38th | 17th |
| Ohio State | 90th | 40th |
| Oklahoma State | 41st | 49th |
| Ole Miss | 94th | 50th |
| Oregon | 35th | 33rd |
| Oregon State | 10th | 38th |
| Pittsburgh | 30th | 76th |
| Purdue | 83rd | 88th |
| Rutgers | 30th | 71st |
| Sacramento State | 23rd | 14th |
| Sam Houston | 78th | 61st |
| San Diego State | 4th | 40th |
| San José State | 54th | 22nd |
| South Alabama | 50th | 73rd |
| South Florida | 91st | 52nd |
| Stanford | 76th | 15th |
| Syracuse | 48th | 64th |
| TCU | 93rd | 8th |
| Tennessee | 65th | 78th |
| Texas | 72nd | 94th |
| Texas A&M | 85th | 72nd |
| Texas Tech | 88th | 48th |
| Troy | 22nd | 59th |
| Tulane | 31st | 2nd |
| Tulsa | 56th | 1st |
| UAB | 65th | 81st |
| UNLV | 51st | 7th |
| USC | 97th | 99th |
| UTSA | 99th | 29th |
| Utah State | 4th | 93rd |
| Vanderbilt | 80th | 12th |
| Wake Forest | 56th | 97th |
| Washington | 81st | 4th |
| Washington State | 8th | 3rd |
| Western Kentucky | 25th | 34th |
| Western Michigan | 39th | 20th |
| Wisconsin | 13th | 18th |
| Wyoming | 65th | 36th |
Halftime identity
Buffalo by half
1st-half offense ranks 4th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 38th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Pass defense by zone
Pass-depth identity
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Buffalo’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (62.4% vs 68.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 73-play sample) — most conservative, 3 of 41 qualifying offenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Buffalo
Most similar programs · BuffaloReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Conditions
61°F average kickoff temp; 11% of games had measurable precipitation; 11 mph average wind.
Based on 70 home games with weather data.