New Mexico beats New Mexico State 42-18
Team pages: New Mexico · New Mexico State
New Mexico beat New Mexico State 42-18. Share this game
We had New Mexico favored. It won.
Next: New Mexico beat UTEP 61-7, Sat Oct 3
Next: New Mexico State beat Western Kentucky 34-13, Thu Oct 1
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave New Mexico a 78% chance, and the closing betting line (New Mexico was a 11.5-point favorite) put it at 82%.
New Mexico 42-18 New Mexico State
Play-by-play ends earlyMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.New Mexico State 18-42 New MexicoPlay-by-play ends earlyMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (New Mexico -11.5), at 76% for New Mexico (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show New Mexico’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 11:26Humphrey 3-yd TD runNew Mexico goes ahead 7-0Q1, 11:26 · New Mexico 7, New Mexico State 0▲7%New Mexico’s chance to win, 80% to 87%▲7%New Mexico’s chance to win, 80% to 87%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q1, 3:03Humphrey 1-yd TD runNew Mexico leads 14-0Q1, 3:03 · New Mexico 14, New Mexico State 0▲6%New Mexico’s chance to win, 89% to 95%▲6%New Mexico’s chance to win, 89% to 95%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 1:21Hedden intercepted by Brawley at the UNM28returned 11 yardsQ2, 1:21 · New Mexico 14, New Mexico State 3▲3%New Mexico’s chance to win, 92% to 95%▲3%New Mexico’s chance to win, 92% to 95%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 13:34Hedden intercepted by Combs at the UNM45Q3, 13:34 · New Mexico 14, New Mexico State 3▲3%New Mexico’s chance to win, 89% to 92%▲3%New Mexico’s chance to win, 89% to 92%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 7:27Hedden sacked for a 1-yd lossfumblesQ3, 7:27 · New Mexico 15, New Mexico State 315-3score after the play15-3score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 2:07Sibley 3-yd TD runNew Mexico leads 29-3Q3, 2:07 · New Mexico 29, New Mexico State 329-3score after the play29-3score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 11:32Damante 5-yd TD pass to Libmancuts it to 35-5Q4, 11:32 · New Mexico 35, New Mexico State 535-5score after the play35-5score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 1:27Laubstein 1-yd TD runNew Mexico leads 41-5Q4, 1:27 · New Mexico 41, New Mexico State 541-5score after the play41-5score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 0:18Damante 8-yd TD pass to Libmancuts it to 42-12Q4, 0:18 · New Mexico 42, New Mexico State 1242-12score after the play42-12score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
Every drive
New Mexico scored on 6 of its 11 drives; New Mexico State on 3 of its 11.
New Mexico’s drives are teal, New Mexico State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
New Mexico’s chance to make the playoff rose from 3% to 4%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
New Mexico 42, New Mexico State 18
New Mexico covered −11.5 by 12.5. The total, 60, went over 47.5.
| Team totals | New Mexico | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 427 | 400 |
| Passing | 10 of 17, 174 yds | 23 of 38, 263 yds |
| Rushing | 47 for 253 yds | 31 for 137 yds |
| First downs | 19 | 22 |
| Third down | 5 of 12 | 6 of 14 |
| Fourth down | 3 of 3 | 2 of 4 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 3 |
| Penalties | 9 for 65 yds | 6 for 50 yds |
| Time of possession | 33:58 | 26:02 |
New Mexico leaders
- Passing Toa Faavae 10 of 17, 174 yds
- Rushing Scottre Humphrey 19 for 104 yds, 2 TD; Kiefer Sibley 12 for 63 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Bailen George 3 for 102 yds; Zhaiel Smith 3 for 50 yds
New Mexico State leaders
- Passing Adam Damante 16 of 19, 157 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing James Jones 14 for 112 yds; Terrell Washington Jr. 7 for 30 yds
- Receiving Josiah Thomas 5 for 90 yds; Myles Libman 4 for 47 yds, 1 TD
No rain through the game
81° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 73°, with about 7 in 10 games between 67° and 79°.
Game-day temperatures at Aggie Memorial Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Las Cruces International airport, 11 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
This is Rio Grande Rivalry — see the full head-to-head history →
Recent games
Last three games
New Mexico · 2-1
Rated 73rd in our preseason ratings, 68th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
New Mexico State · 1-2
Rated 150th in our preseason ratings, 143rd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
New Mexico State
- Wk 1Lat Florida State17-34
- Wk 1Wvs Mercyhurst51-14
- Wk 2Lat Hawai'i19-29
New Mexico
- Wk 1Wvs Central Michigan38-7
- Wk 2Wvs Mercyhurst70-7
- Wk 3Lat Oklahoma6-14
Power rating by week
New Mexico is rated 6.1 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: New Mexico State’s EPA/play against New Mexico, 82 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
New Mexico State’s EPA/play against New Mexico’s defense
New Mexico State offense, 18th percentile · New Mexico defense, 100th
New Mexico State’s explosive plays against New Mexico’s defense
New Mexico State offense, 88th percentile · New Mexico defense, 8th
New Mexico State’s passing EPA against New Mexico’s defense
New Mexico State offense, 20th percentile · New Mexico defense, 97th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
New Mexico leads the series 65-24-2
91 meetings since 1931 · New Mexico has won the last 2
- 2025New Mexico 38-20
- 2024New Mexico 50-40
- 2023New Mexico State 27-17
- 2022New Mexico State 21-9
- 2021New Mexico 34-25
Each line is New Mexico State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
New Mexico fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (74th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
New Mexico favored by 11.5 · Total 47.5
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward New Mexico State.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: +12.5 → +11.5 · Total: 49.5 → 47.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 82° at kickoff.
New Mexico at New Mexico State · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces
- 82°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 80weather score, Mixed
- Roughestof the day's 3 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 3 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the roughest of the day's three kickoff times. At Aggie Memorial Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 80 at 1 pm.
The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.
- 1 pm: 80, Mixed (this game)
- 5:30 pm: 97, Comfortable
- 7 pm: 100, Ideal
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
New Mexico State is worth +7.2 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 94th percentile.
39% at home, 20% on the road against FBS opponents (13-20 home, 10-39 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.3 at home vs. away over 91 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 193 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- New Mexico 38, New Mexico State 20Sep 27, 2025
Our History pages cover 10 of their meetings since 2015.