Jason Eck

5-1This season at New Mexico
14-5FBS career

Also coached below FBS: Idaho 2022–24

Program lift
Year 2
graded once a job reaches 3 seasons
See New Mexico’s full coaching history →

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 0-1

2025Rate BowlL 17-20
Part one · This week

As of Fri Oct 23

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 4% → 6% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. North Dakota State

Sat Oct 24, 10 pm ET The CW · North Dakota State is 6-1 · First meeting between Eck and Tim Polasek as head coaches · New Mexico’s chance to win: 65% (the site’s model)

His week

3 stories this week →

The headlines, Oct 18–23 from 2 outlets

Offense: 64th of 138 per play. Defense: 7th.

Offense, per play64thOffense, starting field position1stDefense, per play7thDefense, opponents' starting field position1stWorstBest
Offense, per play64th of 138Offense, starting field position1st of 138Defense, per play7th of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position1st of 138WorstBest
Through 6 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is New Mexico. The other two rows are where New Mexico stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

6 games left

  1. Sat Oct 24vs. North Dakota State (6-1)The CW65%
  2. Sat Oct 31at San José State (4-3)MW+84%
  3. Fri Nov 6at Nevada (2-4)CBS Sports Network87%
  4. Sat Nov 14vs. UNLV (4-3)The CW77%
  5. Sat Nov 21at Wyoming (4-3)FS185%
  6. Sat Nov 28vs. Air Force (5-1)The CW65%

Percent: New Mexico’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where New Mexico stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

119th125th131stPreseason128thCentral Michigan W 38-7Central Michigan W 38-7W 38-7Central Michi…128thMercyhurst W 70-7Mercyhurst W 70-7W 70-7Mercyhurst128thOklahoma L 6-14Oklahoma L 6-14L 6-14Oklahoma128thNew Mexico State W 42-18New Mexico State W 42-18W 42-18New Mexico St…126thUTEP W 61-7UTEP W 61-7W 61-7UTEP124thHawai'i W 21-10Hawai'i W 21-10W 21-10Hawai'i123rdBye122nd
  1. Oct 12–18W 21-10 at Hawai'i3 headlines · 64th of 138
  2. Oct 5–11No game1 headline · 83rd of 138Lobo Football: Jason Eck Media Availability (10/5/26) New Mexico Lobos
  3. Sep 28–Oct 4W 61-7 vs. UTEP0 headlines
  4. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 42-18 at New Mexico State2 headlines · 76th of 138Jason Eck: New Mexico QB Toa Fa'avae is 'our guy' moving forward Albuquerque Journal
  5. Sep 14–20 · rebuiltL 6-14 at Oklahoma4 headlines · 67th of 138Big personality and big things for Jason Eck at New Mexico ESPN
  6. Sep 7–13 · rebuiltW 70-7 vs. Mercyhurst1 headline · 92nd of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from New Mexico’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

New Mexico

3 stories about him this week

Sat Oct 24: North Dakota State

72nd of 100 FBS head coaches · from 2 outlets and r/CFB

Oct 20: 1Oct 21: 2W 21-10 at Hawai'iWOct 17Oct 23Most in a day: 2
Oct 20: 1Oct 21: 2W 21-10 at Hawai'iWOct 17Oct 23Most in a day: 2
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.

What they’re talking about

Press conference and quotes2 storiesrising

26 stories about him this season

from 13 outlets and r/CFB

Aug 1 to Aug 7: 2Aug 15 to Aug 21: 2Aug 22 to Aug 28: 3Aug 29 to Sep 4: 2Sep 5 to Sep 11: 3Sep 12 to Sep 18: 3Sep 19 to Sep 25: 3Sep 26 to Oct 2: 1Oct 3 to Oct 9: 1Oct 10 to Oct 16: 3Oct 17 to Oct 23: 3W 38-7 vs Central MichiganWW 70-7 vs MercyhurstWL 6-14 at OklahomaLW 42-18 at New Mexico StateWW 61-7 vs UTEPWW 21-10 at Hawai'iWAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 3
Aug 1 to Aug 7: 2Aug 15 to Aug 21: 2Aug 22 to Aug 28: 3Aug 29 to Sep 4: 2Sep 5 to Sep 11: 3Sep 12 to Sep 18: 3Sep 19 to Sep 25: 3Sep 26 to Oct 2: 1Oct 3 to Oct 9: 1Oct 10 to Oct 16: 3Oct 17 to Oct 23: 3W 38-7 vs Central MichiganWW 70-7 vs MercyhurstWL 6-14 at OklahomaLW 42-18 at New Mexico StateWW 61-7 vs UTEPWW 21-10 at Hawai'iWAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 3
Gold: stories about him each week. W and L: his games. Counted from Aug 1, when tracking began.

What they’re talking about

Press conference and quotes7 storiesrising
Quarterback and depth chart3 stories
Profile and feature2 stories
Game preview2 stories

34 stories about him across 2 seasons

2025: 152026: 19New Mexico20252026Most in a year: 19
2025: 152026: 19New Mexico20252026Most in a year: 19
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2025). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.

Could another school hire him? What has he said?

Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Oct 23.

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Part two · The hire

Hires into jobs like this

Hired into 6–6, Regional Program V. Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.

Of the 5 closest comps, 4 left the program higher than he found it and 1 left it lower. Median stay: 7 seasons.
Every coach hired into a Regional Program V job since 1990 (86): typically -0.3 after year 1, +0.1 after year 2.
band ends: fewer than 15 hires still in the job+24+20+16+12+8+4what he inheritedhiredyr 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 6yr 7yr 8yr 9yr 10yr 11yr 12yr 13yr 14yr 15yr 16yr 17yr 18Lichtenberg: -2.6 vs. inheritedSchiano: +15.6 vs. inheritedHudspeth: +9 vs. inheritedBowden: +1.6 vs. inheritedBustle: +0.1 vs. inheritedEck: +4.6 vs. inherited▏ Schiano +15.6▏ Hudspeth +9Eck +4.6▏ Bowden +1.6▏ Bustle +0.1▏ Lichtenberg -2.6
→ Ohio, 1990
1–9 · 2–8 · 1–10 · 4–7 · 0–11
5 seasons
-2.6 vs. what he inherited
→ Rutgers, 2001
2–9 · 1–11 · 5–7 · 4–7 · 7–5 · 11–2 · 8–5 · 8–5 · 9–4 · 4–8 · 9–4 · 3–6 · 5–8 · 4–8 · 7–6 · 7–6 · 5–7 · 2–4
18 seasons
+15.6 vs. what he inherited
→ Louisiana, 2011
9–4 · 9–4 · 9–4 · 9–4 · 4–8 · 6–7 · 5–7
7 seasons
+9.0 vs. what he inherited
→ Akron, 2012
1–11 · 5–7 · 5–7 · 8–5 · 5–7 · 7–7 · 4–8
7 seasons
+1.6 vs. what he inherited
→ Louisiana, 2002
3–9 · 4–8 · 4–7 · 6–5 · 6–6 · 3–9 · 6–6 · 6–6 · 3–9
9 seasons
+0.1 vs. what he inherited
Résumé
Previous stops: Idaho (2022–2024)
No single prior tenure of 4+ seasons to profile.
The job he took
Followed Bronco Mendenhall (2024–2024), after the season
5–7
Program was climbing in the 2022–2024 run-up.
A Regional Program V job.
Rivalry record so far
Rio Grande Rivalry vs. New Mexico State2–0
How new coaches start here
  • Bronco Mendenhall20245–7+0.9
  • Danny Gonzales20202–5+0.0
  • Bob Davie20124–9-1.1
  • George Barlow20111–7-5.5
  • Mike Locksley20091–11-4.5
  • Rocky Long19983–9-2.3
  • Dennis Franchione19923–8+0.6
  • Mike Sheppard19870–11-3.3

Poach watch

This winter

41%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobCoveted3rd-highest of 137 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 5-1, outscoring opponents by 29.2 points a game
  • ▲ Higher
    Age 49 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▲ Higher
    Paid $1.1 million in 2025, the 32nd percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Part three · The career

Coaching career

2025–now
New Mexico ◆ coach of the year
too new to grade yet

Followed Bronco Mendenhall (2024).

System Shift, on arrival
Season20252026Trend
Record & result
Record9-45-1
PostseasonL bowl—
Coordinators
OCLuke SchleusnerLuke Schleusner
DCSpence NowinskySpence Nowinsky
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense5144
Defense8095
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%41.438.2
Red-zone pass%30.229.5
4th-down go%opp. territory50.047.6
Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+22.0 pts
#35 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
+48.5 pts
#2 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 221 lbs
across 38 of 49 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-2.2 lbs
#243 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. class year
So
#240 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.0★
rated arrivals only
Top states: CA (6), TX (5), WA (4), FL (4), AZ (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
51.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
53.7
position-weighted
Net
-2.0
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Luke Moga (QB) from Oregon
Biggest loss: Devon Dampier (QB) to Utah
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Tight end via the portal
86%
#9 of 188 stints
Buys Safety via the portal
70%
#22 of 218 stints
Grows Wide receiver from high school
78%
#212 of 243 stints
Postseason detail2025: Lost to Minnesota 17-20 Rate Bowl

Coach of the Year: Mountain West Coach of the Year (2025)

AI Narratives — “New Mexico's Late Surge” and 5 more on the team page.

14-5

Big games

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

2-0 against his rivals.

Rivalry record
2-0
100.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
4-3
57.1% · margin ≤8
Against Blue Bloods or better
0-1
0.0%
Against the spread
12-7
all 19 had a line
Rivalry ledger
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0-1 0.0%
Power Program
0-2 0.0%
National Program
1-1 50.0%
Regional Program
11-1 91.7%

ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.

Signature games

0-2 vs. AP top 25 · 0-0 vs. the top 10
Signature wins
W
UCLA · 2025
35-10
UpsetQuality opponent
W
New Mexico State · 2026
42-18
RivalQuality opponent
W
New Mexico State · 2025
38-20
RivalQuality opponent
Signature losses
L
Minnesota · 2025
17-20
Bowl/CFP stakes
L
Michigan · 2025
17-34
L
Boise State · 2025
25-41

Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.

How he plays

Run/pass mix, by field position

Called about what the situation called for.

749 run and pass snaps at New Mexico, 2025–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.

passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)
Pass rate, stint by stint

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

30%40%FBS avg 41%New Mexico2025–2026▼ 13.6pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered season

How good is he so far?

Too new to grade — in-season movement only
New Mexico’s composite stature has risen since preseason: 7.7 entering the year to 10.2 through week 8 (Regional Program IV) · #13 of 138 in movement since preseason · top quarter.
Part four · How he builds a team

Four numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.

  1. 1His recruiting
  2. 2Roster ownership
  3. 3Where he recruits
  4. 4The NFL pipeline

His recruiting, really

#87Nationally, his own classes

His one ranked New Mexico class of his own finished #87 nationally.

2025
#138
Transition
2026
#87
His class

His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle

Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.

Roster ownership

Roster ownership

87%His own players

of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 100 of 115 players. The other 15 are holdovers from before he was hired.

Arrived under him 100Inherited 15

Of his own players on this roster, 24% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).

Everyone he has brought in, 2025–2026Counting players who have since left: 29% of the 131 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.

“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.

Where he recruits

CATop state

is his biggest recruiting state: 14 of 53 signees (26%) across his 2025–2026 tenure, drawn from 12 states in all. Next: TX (10).

Where his signees came from, 2025–2026 (53 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)

47% of his signees come from CA and its 3 border states (AZ 7, OR 3, NV 1).

1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee2 signees1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee2 signees2 signees1 signee1 signee3 signees1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee2 signees2 signees1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee2 signees1 signee
By region
West
34
South
13
Midwest
6
Roster distance from campus (University Stadium (NM))
median hometown distance
668 mi
within 100 mi
9%
within 500 mi
28%
beyond 1,000 mi
29%
110 of 115 roster players with a known hometown (96% coverage)

The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.

The NFL pipeline

The NFL pipeline

1Drafted

players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. He brought in 1 of them himself.

His recruits 1Inherited 01 roster-verified · 0 estimated
Most recent picks first
YearPickPlayerPosNFL teamNote
2026R7.36Keyshawn James-NewbyDefensive EdgePhiladelphia Eagles

A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.