The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Terry Bowden

Followed Matt Viator. Terry Bowden slid UL Monroe from Regional Program V to Regional Program VI in 3 seasons.

Peak, then fade
92–95
1993–2023 · 3 stints
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 1st career season — faster than 57% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #1 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Auburn, 6 seasons
−0.5
Power Program I → Power Program II.
Akron, 7 seasons
+3.4
Regional Program V → Regional Program V.
UL Monroe, 3 seasons
−1.2
Regional Program VI → Regional Program VI.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%60%Akron2012–2018▼ 10.3ptUL Monroe2021–2023▲ 3.9pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Akron18.3pt#19 of 258 · more than most
UL Monroe3.9pt#237 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

14–13 against his rivals. Just 1–6 against Frank Solich.

Rivalry record
14–13–1
50.0% · 6 rivals
One-score games
33–28–1
53.2% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
3–9
25.0%
Rivalry ledger
Kent State5–271%
Georgia3–2–150%
Alabama3–350%
Buffalo2–250%
Louisiana1–150%
The toughest matchupNemesis
vs. Frank Solich1–6
7 meetings, 2012–2018
’12 L’13 L’14 L · blew a 4-pt lead’15 L · blew a 3-pt lead’16 L’17 W · erased a 11-pt deficit’18 L
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
3–9 25.0%
Power Program
9–15 37.5%
National Program
23–20 53.5%
Regional Program
42–45 48.3%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.62
#313 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.04
#195 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2021–2023
UL Monroecaretaker
Regional Program V → Regional Program VI
Terry Bowden slid UL Monroe from Regional Program V to Regional Program VI in 3 seasons.

10th-best UL Monroe tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-22.1 pts
#181 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-12.0 pts
#154 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Matt Viator (2016–2020) · succeeded by Bryant Vincent (2024–2026).

Season202120222023Trend
Record & result
Record4–84–82–10
Postseason
Recruiting rank#112#128#125
Style — pass rate
Pass rate41.544.245.4
Coordinators
OCRich RodriguezMatt KubikMatt Kubik
DCZac AlleyVic KoenningVic Koenning
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense14193
Defense262421
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%30.748.046.4
Red-zone pass%33.944.041.1
4th-down go%opp. territory28.237.041.0
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
29
2.8★ avg rating
Portal departures
61
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-32
#128 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 217 lbs
across 17 of 29 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+0.0 lbs
#230 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#191 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: TX (5), GA (2), LA (2), OK (2), AZ (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
51.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
51.7
position-weighted
Net
-0.4
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Rhett Rodriguez (QB) from Arizona
Biggest loss: Jeremy Hunt (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Rich Rodriguez → Matt Kubik · 2022
14th pct19th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 30.7% → 48.0% (+17.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 82% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Zac Alley → Vic Koenning · 2022
26th pct24th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
199 lbs
6′1″ avg · #712 of 767 · less than most
Running back
199 lbs
5′10″ avg · #648 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
188 lbs
6′0″ avg · #598 of 791 · less than most
Tight end
246 lbs
6′3″ avg · #323 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
314 lbs
6′4″ avg · #181 of 779 · more than most
Linebacker
222 lbs
6′1″ avg · #646 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
184 lbs
6′0″ avg · #658 of 771 · less than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Tackle via the portal
100%
#1 of 223 stints
Buys Safety via the portal
67%
#27 of 218 stints
10–26
2012–2018
Akroncaretaker
Regional Program V → Regional Program V
Terry Bowden held Akron at Regional Program V for 7 seasons.

5th-best Akron tenure of 9 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-27.0 pts
#195 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
+16.5 pts
#46 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Rob Ianello (2010–2011) · succeeded by Tom Arth (2019–2021).

Season2012201320142015201620172018Trend
Record & result
Record1–115–75–78–55–77–74–8
PostseasonW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#112#126#129#128#125
Style — pass rate
Pass rate59.240.951.049.349.0
Coordinators
OCA. J. MilweeA. J. MilweeA. J. MilweeA. J. MilweeA. J. Milwee
DCChuck AmatoChuck AmatoChuck AmatoChuck AmatoTodd Stroud
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense112126115
Defense7182503573
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%65.142.657.051.252.0
Red-zone pass%48.629.640.030.450.0
4th-down go%opp. territory25.624.440.629.018.9
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Chuck Amato → Todd Stroud · 2018
35th pct73rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2015: Beat Utah State 23–21 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl2017: Lost to Florida Atlantic 3–50 Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl

2 NFL Draft picks: Jatavis Brown (2016), Ulysees Gilbert III (2019)

35–52
1993–1998
Auburninheritor
Power Program I → Power Program I
Terry Bowden inherited a Power Program I Auburn and won with it.

7th-best Auburn tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Pat Dye (1981–1992) · succeeded by Tommy Tuberville (1999–2008).

16 NFL Draft picks: Fred Baxter (1993), James Willis (1993), Chris Gray (1993), Wayne Gandy (1994), James Bostic (1994), Anthony Redmon (1994), Frank Sanders (1995), Mike Pelton (1995) + 8 more

47–17