UTEP

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UTEP fans choose kickoff time for San Jose State gameour readKenny Odom produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.our read

Mountain West · Scotty Walden, year 3 (6-20) · Sun Bowl · 51,500 · 24,580 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#136 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #132 (-24.3) · FPI #129
The marketMichigan by 35at Michigan · our model 6% UTEP · a number, not a pick

LastW 51–10 vs Texas Southern · Sat Sep 12 · EJ Colson 239 pass yds, 4 TD, 49 rush yds

Nextat Michigan · Sat Sep 19 · 3:30 pm ET · Michigan Stadium · Michigan by 35 · first meeting on record · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
25.5
Pts allowed/game
30.5
Total yards/gm#108 / 138 · 22nd pct
344.5
Rush yards/gmT-#63 / 138 · 54th pct
182.0
Pass yards/gm#119 / 138 · 14th pct
162.5
Yards allowed/gm#59 / 138 · 58th pct
306.0
Rush yds allowed/gm#89 / 138 · 36th pct
141.0
SacksT-#80 / 138 · 33rd pct
3
InterceptionsT-#63 / 115 · 23rd pct
1
3rd-down convT-#121 / 138 · 12th pct
30.4%
All 80 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
689344.5/gm6.26/play#108 / 138 · 22nd pct#64 / 70 · 9th pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
612306.0/gm5.10/play#59 / 138 · 58th pct#44 / 70 · 38th pct#3 / 10 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
364182.0/gm3.31/playT-#63 / 138 · 54th pctT-#33 / 70 · 52nd pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
282141.0/gm2.35/play#89 / 138 · 36th pct#58 / 70 · 18th pct#3 / 10 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
7135.5/gmT-#79 / 138 · 42nd pctT-#41 / 70 · 41st pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
7939.5/gmT-#109 / 138 · 21st pctT-#63 / 70 · 9th pct#5 / 10 · 55th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
31.5/gmT-#77 / 138 · 34th pctT-#45 / 70 · 29th pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#86 / 138 · 31st pctT-#57 / 70 · 16th pctT-#3 / 10 · 55th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
325162.5/gm2.95/play#119 / 138 · 14th pct#66 / 70 · 6th pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
330165.0/gm2.75/play#41 / 138 · 71st pct#31 / 70 · 56th pct#3 / 10 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
3919.5/gmT-#124 / 138 · 10th pct#65 / 70 · 8th pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4120.5/gmT-#9 / 138 · 93rd pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
2412.0/gmT-#124 / 138 · 10th pct#65 / 70 · 8th pctT-#8 / 10 · 20th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2512.5/gmT-#14 / 138 · 89th pctT-#10 / 70 · 85th pct#3 / 10 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
42.0/gmT-#48 / 138 · 57th pctT-#33 / 70 · 46th pctT-#3 / 10 · 70th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#75 / 138 · 36th pctT-#47 / 70 · 23rd pct#6 / 10 · 45th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating#36 / 115 · 69th pct#25 / 60 · 59th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
160.3160.3
Interceptions thrown
Team
00.0/gmT-#92 / 138 · 17th pctT-#42 / 70 · 21st pctT-#9 / 10 · 10th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 64th pctT-#11 / 70 · 64th pctT-#2 / 10 · 80th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
31.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 33rd pctT-#49 / 70 · 22nd pctT-#6 / 10 · 35th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
52.5/gmT-#101 / 138 · 20th pctT-#56 / 70 · 14th pctT-#6 / 10 · 40th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
126.0/gmT-#53 / 138 · 59th pctT-#33 / 70 · 51st pctT-#3 / 10 · 60th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
157.5/gmT-#123 / 138 · 9th pctT-#67 / 70 · 4th pctT-#6 / 10 · 40th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
3115.5/gmT-#121 / 138 · 11th pct#65 / 70 · 8th pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3115.5/gmT-#42 / 138 · 69th pctT-#32 / 70 · 53rd pct#3 / 10 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
73.5/gmT-#117 / 138 · 13th pctT-#63 / 70 · 8th pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
126.0/gmT-#91 / 138 · 30th pctT-#52 / 70 · 24th pctT-#5 / 10 · 50th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2311.5/gmT-#91 / 138 · 30th pctT-#43 / 70 · 34th pctT-#8 / 10 · 20th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2814.0/gmT-#62 / 138 · 50th pctT-#32 / 70 · 49th pctT-#4 / 10 · 60th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
21.0/gmT-#51 / 138 · 51st pctT-#28 / 70 · 49th pctT-#6 / 10 · 40th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#26 / 138 · 66th pctT-#15 / 70 · 61st pctT-#2 / 10 · 70th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
31.5/gmT-#66 / 138 · 41st pctT-#35 / 70 · 44th pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#3 / 138 · 92nd pctT-#2 / 70 · 92nd pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
52:5226:26/gm#123 / 138 · 11th pct#65 / 70 · 8th pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
67:0833:34/gm#114 / 138 · 18th pct#65 / 70 · 8th pct#6 / 10 · 45th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.24 EPA/play1220 / 3360.62918.84
#36 FBS
0174.741
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.45 EPA/play2211286.1133
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+1.20 EPA/play5255210.4118

2026 stat leaders · UTEP

through 2 games

Xavier Smith leads UTEP with 10 tackles through 2 games.

1. Xavier Smith S 10 tackles
2. Isaiah Bogerty LB 10 tackles
3. Raymond Moore III QB 142 rushing yards
4. Donavan Howard S 9 tackles
5. Tavorus Jones RB 128 rushing yards
How They Play · 2025

UTEP fields a struggling pass-first, explosive, big-play offense behind a strong, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
4th pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
52% pass plays
Tempo
97th pct explosiveness
Defense
68th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
66th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · UTEP · 2025

UTEP reads strongest in explosive plays (top 4%) and rushing epa allowed (top 18%); the crux lives in success rate, where UTEP sits at the 1st percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.01
4th
Success Rate +0.33
1st
Explosive Plays +1.43
97th
Rushing EPA +0.05
27th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.10
68th
Success Rate Allowed +0.39
68th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.22
66th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.23
53rd

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.01
3rd
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.01
83rd
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 12 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · UTEP · 2018–present · FBS opponents

UTEP is worth +4.2 points more at home than on the road.

Middle of FBS, 51st percentile of 133 programs

28% at home, 17% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (10–26 home, 8–40 away). Interval ±3.4.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, UTEP has beaten the number by −0.9 more at home than away over 73 games — inside the ±5.5 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Sun Bowl seats 51,500 and has averaged 36% full (18,341, 24 games reported). Visitors face the 7th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 811 miles since 2018. The map isn't translating, though — the split above still reads middle of fbs. 10% of the 2026 roster (10 of 104 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 45 home games since 2018.

Home10–26Away8–40Edge+4.2 ±3.4Visitor trip811 mi

More in this tab

RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank UTEP

CFB Zeitgeist

#136

-8.1

SP+

#132

-24.3

FPI

#129

-17.2

Elo

#133

1143

The national models put UTEP between 129th and 133rd nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is more skeptical, at 136th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · UTEP

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

75°F average kickoff temp; 3% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.

Based on 68 home games with weather data.

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