The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Tom Herman

Followed Willie Taggart. Tom Herman held Florida Atlantic at Regional Program II for 2 seasons.

Peak, then fade
60–38
2015–2024 · 3 stints
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerHOUSTONTEXASFLORIDA ATLANTICBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelHouston, 2015: 13-1, National Program I2015Houston, 2016: 9-3, National Program I2016+8.9Texas, 2017: 7-6, Power Program II2017Texas, 2018: 10-4, Power Program II2018Texas, 2019: 8-5, Power Program I2019Texas, 2020: 7-3, Power Program I2020+3.6Florida Atlantic, 2023: 4-8, Regional Program II2023Florida Atlantic, 2024: 2-8, Regional Program III2024-1.1One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Power Program in his 3rd career season — faster than 46% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #194 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Houston, 2 seasons
+8.9
National Program I → National Program I.
Texas, 4 seasons
+3.6
Power Program II → Power Program I.
Florida Atlantic, 2 seasons
−1.1
Regional Program II → Regional Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Houston2015–2016▲ 9.0ptTexas2017–2020▼ 1.2ptFlorida Atlantic2023–2024▼ 9.3pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Texas4.1pt#236 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

4–5 against his rivals. Just 1–4 against Lincoln Riley.

Rivalry record
4–5
44.4% · 2 rivals
One-score games
18–18
50.0% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
1–2
33.3%
Rivalry ledger
Oklahoma1–420%
Texas Tech3–175%
The toughest matchup
vs. Lincoln Riley1–4
5 meetings, 2017–2020
’17 L · blew a 1-pt lead’18 W · erased a 7-pt deficit’18 L · blew a 8-pt lead’19 L’20 L · blew a 7-pt lead
20% win rate across a real, 5-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
1–2 33.3%
Power Program
11–11 50.0%
National Program
16–6 72.7%
Regional Program
19–7 73.1%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.07
#123 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
+0.13
#77 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2023–2024
Florida Atlanticcaretaker
Regional Program II → Regional Program II
Tom Herman held Florida Atlantic at Regional Program II for 2 seasons.

3rd-best Florida Atlantic tenure of 9 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-5.2 pts
#133 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-14.8 pts
#163 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Willie Taggart (2020–2022) · succeeded by Zach Kittley (2025–2026).

Season20232024Trend
Record & result
Record4–81–1
Postseason
Recruiting rank#82#79
Style — pass rate
Pass rate52.843.4
Coordinators
OCCharlie FryeCharlie Frye
DCBrandon Harris / Roc BellantoniBrandon Harris / Roc Bellantoni
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense4145
Defense4324
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%46.138.4
Red-zone pass%49.440.7
4th-down go%opp. territory53.145.0
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
32
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
52
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-20
#67 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 228 lbs
across 20 of 32 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+0.6 lbs
#219 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#35 of 255 · more than most
Top states: FL (10), TX (2), GA (2), PA (2), OK (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
52.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
54.2
position-weighted
Net
-2.0
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Cam Fancher (QB) from Marshall
Biggest loss: Casey Thompson (QB) to Oklahoma
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
201 lbs
6′1″ avg · #680 of 767 · less than most
Running back
201 lbs
5′10″ avg · #600 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
180 lbs
5′11″ avg · #766 of 791 · less than most
Tight end
238 lbs
6′3″ avg · #617 of 731 · less than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
311 lbs
6′5″ avg · #311 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
288 lbs
6′3″ avg · #307 of 753 · a typical amount
Cornerback
182 lbs
6′0″ avg · #713 of 771 · less than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Quarterback via the portal
83%
#5 of 206 stints
Buys Edge via the portal
80%
#15 of 208 stints
Grows Safety from high school
86%
#191 of 218 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): LaJohntay Wester (2023)

6–16
2017–2020
Texascaretaker
Power Program II → Power Program I
Tom Herman moved Texas from Power Program II to Power Program I in 4 seasons.

9th-best Texas tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-3.0 pts
#124 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-0.9 pts
#107 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Charlie Strong (2014–2016) · succeeded by Steve Sarkisian (2021–2026).

Season2017201820192020Trend
Record & result
Record7–610–48–57–3
PostseasonW bowlW bowlW CFPW bowl
Recruiting rank#25#3#3#9
Style — pass rate
Pass rate49.645.549.548.4
Coordinators
OCTim BeckHerb Hand / Tim BeckHerb Hand / Tim BeckHerb Hand / Mike Yurcich
DCTodd OrlandoTodd OrlandoTodd Orlando / Craig NaivarChris Ash / Coleman Hutzler
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense9789178
Defense94505363
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%49.747.250.045.8
Red-zone pass%43.438.550.050.4
4th-down go%opp. territory40.730.437.529.0
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Tim Beck → co-Herb Hand / Tim Beck · 2018
9th pct78th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 49.7% → 47.2% (-2.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 65% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Herb Hand / Tim Beck → co-Herb Hand / Mike Yurcich · 2020
91st pct78th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 50.0% → 45.8% (-4.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 70% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Todd Orlando → Todd Orlando / co-Craig Naivar · 2019
50th pct53rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Todd Orlando / co-Craig Naivar → Chris Ash / co-Coleman Hutzler · 2020
53rd pct63rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2017: Beat Missouri 33–16 Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl2018: Beat Georgia 28–21 Allstate Sugar Bowl2019: Beat Utah 38–10 CFP2020: Beat Colorado 55–23 Valero Alamo Bowl

15 NFL Draft picks: D'Onta Foreman (2017), Connor Williams (2018), Malik Jefferson (2018), Michael Dickson (2018), DeShon Elliott (2018), Charles Omenihu (2019), Kris Boyd (2019), Brandon Jones (2020) + 7 more

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Joseph Ossai (2020)

32–18
2015–2016
Houstoncaretaker
National Program II → National Program I
Tom Herman moved Houston from National Program II to National Program I in 2 seasons.

4th-best Houston tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+5.0 pts
#89 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+21.8 pts
#28 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Tony Levine (2012–2014).

Season20152016Trend
Record & result
Record13–19–3
PostseasonW CFPL bowl
Recruiting rank#89#36
Style — pass rate
Pass rate39.248.2
Coordinators
OCMajor ApplewhiteMajor Applewhite
DCTodd OrlandoTodd Orlando
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense8231
Defense5987
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%36.049.0
Red-zone pass%29.433.3
4th-down go%opp. territory41.941.9
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2015: Beat Florida State 38–24 CFP2016: Lost to San Diego State 10–34 Las Vegas Bowl Presented By Geico

6 NFL Draft picks: William Jackson III (2016), Elandon Roberts (2016), Demarcus Ayers (2016), Tyus Bowser (2017), Howard Wilson (2017), Brandon Wilson (2017)

22–4