CFB Zeitgeist Score
73
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rec tds at the 87th percentile.
Carl Chester
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
550 REC YDS · 30 REC · 6 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to Southern Miss for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Wide receiver · Southern Miss
Returning around him
- 52% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- Transfer portal: +9 net (37 in / 28 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Southern Miss · Last season: 7-6 · Talent rank #83 · 2026 recruiting class #105
WR · SOUTHERN MISS · SUN BELT
Carl Chester
- 4
- #7
- 6-3 | 200 lb
- Manor, TX
Heisman Heat
#912
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2023–2025+37%
Up 37% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
3 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-star | 0.8204 | No. 1991 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Marshall -> Southern Miss | 3-star | 0.8300 | Immediate |
| 2024 | Tulsa -> Marshall | 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8204
#1991 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Carl Chester
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Carl Chester
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per reception
18.3
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #18 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 97th
Why it matters
#18 of 531 All FBS WRs at 18.3 yards per reception (30 catches).
Vs cohort
This player 18.3 (97th)
HIGH · n=30 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving TDs#55 / 531
- Receiving yards (total)#172 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 13 at South Alabama — 128 ypr
Result L 35-42
The week the volume broke through — put up 128 yds at South Alabama.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 12g
550Rec yards
30Receptions
6Rec TDs
Per game
45.8Rec yards
2Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
595.8Rec yards
32Receptions
6Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 550): needs 150/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 550): needs 450/game over remaining 1.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 30): needs 30/game over remaining 1.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 30): needs 50/game over remaining 1.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 6): needs 2/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 6): needs 4/game over remaining 1.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Carl Chester's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Southern Miss, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Big-play receiver against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
30 75th
YDS
550 84th
YPR
18.3 91st
TD
6 95th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 17-34vs Mississippi State | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 0 | 22 | |
| Wk 2 | W 38-20vs Jackson State | 3 | 40 | 13.3 | 0 | 23 | |
| Wk 4 | L 20-30@ Louisiana Tech | 4 | 118 | 29.5 | 0 | 42 | |
| Wk 5 | W 42-25vs Jacksonville State | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 1 | 13 | |
| Wk 7 | W 38-35@ Georgia Southern | 2 | 43 | 21.5 | 1 | 30 | |
| Wk 8 | W 22-10@ Louisiana | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 5 | |
| Wk 9 | W 49-21vs UL Monroe | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 1 | 8 | |
| Wk 11 | W 27-21@ Arkansas State | 1 | 35 | 35.0 | 0 | 35 | |
| Wk 12 | L 14-41vs Texas State | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 13 | L 35-42@ South Alabama | 5 | 128 | 25.6 | 2 | 52 | Season-high 128 yds |
| Wk 14 | L 18-28vs Troy | 4 | 76 | 19.0 | 1 | 30 | |
| Bowl | L 16-27vs Western Kentucky | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 | 19 | |
| Total | 30 | 550 | 17.4 | 6 | 52 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Tulsa4-8HC: Kevin Wilson · Run-heavy
2024Marshall10-3HC: Charles Huff · Run-leaning
2025Southern Miss7-6HC: Charles Huff · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Southern Miss | 30 | 550 | 18.3 | 6 | -- |
| 2024 | Marshall | 20 | 342 | 17.1 | 3 | -- |
| 2023 | Tulsa | 22 | 401 | 18.2 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 72 | 1,293 | 18.0 | 10 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 30 | #282/1110 | 75th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 550 | #178/1107 | 84th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 6 | #56/1111 | 95th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 18.3 | #104/1106 | 91st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 12.6% | #339/1137 | 70th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 52 | #244/1105 | 78th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 9.7% | #249/1137 | 78th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 6.6% | #516/1137 | 55th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 6.5% | #316/1137 | 72nd pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 6.3% | #269/1137 | 76th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 6.1% | #314/1137 | 72nd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 5.3% | #466/1137 | 59th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #391/1137 | 66th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 2.3 | 31.1 | 13.2 | 0.4 |
| Road5g | 2.8 | 66.4 | 23.1 | 0.6 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins6g | 1.7 | 24.5 | 15.8 | 0.5 |
| Losses6g | 3.3 | 67.2 | 18.9 | 0.5 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 2.7 | 47.5 | 17.8 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 2.3 | 44.2 | 16.9 | 0.7 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
73Solid starter
Elite: yards / catch (95th). Strength: rec tds (86th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Carl ChesterSouthern MissKevin ConcepcionTexas A&M· 76% simHarrison Wallace IIIOle Miss· 75% simChris Brazzell IITennessee· 74% sim
Yards / catch
Rec TDs
Rec yards
Long catch
Receptions
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Deep Threat
Stretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Zane Pope’s 2021 season.
Zane Pope
70%match
#2
Kyren Lacy
70%
#3
Duece Watts
70%
#4
Isaiah Alston
69%
#5
Brad Rozner
69%
Matches Zane on
Total EPA (college ability)
Height
Weight
Differs from Zane on
EPA / play (adj) (lower)
TD rate (higher)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Isaiah McKoy’s path through Kent State.
Isaiah McKoy
96%match
All-MAC
#2
JaQuae Jackson
89%
#3
Gunner Romney
88%
#4
Christan Horn
87%
#5
Jalen Williams
87%
Matches Isaiah on
Yards per reception
Recruiting rating
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Chris Parker's junior season at Central Michigan (2023).
Chris Parker
78%match
#2
Chas Nimrod
69%
#3
Joseph Scates
68%
#4
Devontez Walker
All-ACCNFL Rd 4
67%
#5
Nick Devereaux
All-MAC
66%
Matches Chris on
Total EPA (college ability)
Yards / reception
Weight
Differs from Chris on
TD rate (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Charles Huff
Pass share
49.9%
454 pass / 456 run
Plays / game
70.0
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.3%
315 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
3 coaches2023
Will Hall
Southern Miss
2024era →
Reed Stringer
Southern Miss
2025era →
Charles Huff
Southern Miss
Played under 3 different head coaches: Will Hall, Reed Stringer, and Charles Huff. Multi-era developmental context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownManor, TX
Height6'3"
Weight200 lb
Class4
PositionWR
Jersey7
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamSouthern Miss
ConferenceSun Belt
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Marshall | WR4 | #912 | #1340 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Sun Belt |
| 2023 | Tulsa | WR4 | #2287 | #3000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | American Athletic |
| 2022 | Tulsa | WR4 | #4761 | #5023 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | American Athletic |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Southern Miss | Sun Belt | WR | 4 | No. 7 | 6-3 | 200 lb | Manor, TX |
| 2024 | Marshall | Sun Belt | WR | 4 | No. 7 | 6-3 | 200 lb | Manor, TX |
| 2023 | Tulsa | American Athletic | WR | 4 | No. 7 | 6-3 | 200 lb | Manor, TX |
| 2022 | Tulsa | American Athletic | WR | 4 | No. 7 | 6-3 | 200 lb | Manor, TX |