CFB Zeitgeist Score
87
All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 98th percentile.
Anthony Smith led the Big Ten in sacks at 6-6, 295 — a power rusher built like a defensive end and a tackle at once. He turned down the NFL to come back, sharpen the craft, and chase the first round.
Smith's 2025 was a wrecking-ball season: 12.5 sacks to lead the Big Ten and 17.5 tackles for loss, the kind of production that usually buys a ticket to the draft. Instead he rejected transfer interest and the NFL to return to Minnesota, pairing with Karter Menz to form one of the conference's best edge duos. The forward stakes are a climb up draft boards: he's already an All-America-caliber rusher, and 2026 is about refining the rush plan around a heavy, powerful base into a first-round profile. At his size, with this production, he's a problem for any tackle in the Big Ten.
How he plays
Smith is a power-rush edge — 6-6, 295, a heavy, long defender who wins by walking tackles back into the pocket rather than running the arc around them. The bull rush is the foundation, and the 12.5 sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss say it works: he collapses the edge and the quarterback's launch point at once. At his weight he's stout against the run too, hard to move off the ball — the kind of edge who sets a firm edge and rushes from a base of strength. The development is the finesse to complement the force: add the counters and the bend, and a dominant power rusher becomes a complete one.
Where He Ended Up · NFL
Dallas2026 NFL rookie season
#218Rd 7 · Pick 2
Dallas2026 NFL rookie season
WR · EAST CAROLINA · AMERICAN ATHLETIC
Anthony Smith
- 4
- #9
- 6-3 | 189 lb
- Huntingtown, MD
Heisman Heat
#4031
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
In Their Words
56 windows · 2025 fan posts
anthony×185.5minnesota×278.3linebacker×208.7edge×185.5outside×167.0ranking×87.9ten×83.5
“Ranking the Big Ten: Edge/Outside Linebacker (2. Anthony Smith, Minnesota) Ranking the Big Ten: Edge/Outside Linebacker (2. Anthony Smith, Minnesota)”
board/GopherHole · fan post, verbatim
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2021–2025+986%
Up 986% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#8 in market ▼ from #6 · 4 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Volume King 1.3% Volume King 2,500+ passing yards, 1,200+ rushing yards, or 900+ receiving yards in a single season (position-appropriate threshold). Held by 1.3% of the 2025 pool. 1053 receiving yards — clears the 900-WR volume bar.
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in receiving yards (1053).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Anthony Smith
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=2
- Rivals · n=4
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Anthony Smith
Obsession score 3
Rival mentions 4
Weeks on radar 2
Peak moment Week 0 · 2 mentions
Grudging respect 0% Neutral 100% Mockery 0%
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per reception
16.5
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #50 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 91st
Why it matters
#50 of 531 All FBS WRs at 16.5 yards per reception (64 catches).
Vs cohort
This player 16.5 (91th)
HIGH · n=64 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving yards (total)#14 / 531
- Receiving TDs#36 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 1 vs Pittsburgh — 156 ypr
Result W 23-17
The week the volume broke through — put up 156 yds vs Pittsburgh.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 13g
1,053Rec yards
64Receptions
7Rec TDs
Per game
81Rec yards
5Receptions
1Rec TDs
Final
1,053Rec yards
64Receptions
7Rec TDs
✓ Hit 700-yard receiver · finished with 1,053.
✓ Hit 1,000-yard receiver · finished with 1,053.
✓ Hit 60-catch season · finished with 64.
Why the profile pops beyond receiving
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The most interesting thing about Anthony Smith is that he shows up in multiple game states. He is a receiver first, but the profile also includes designed touches and return-game juice, which means his value is not limited to a conventional route tree.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Target magnet | Big-play receiver against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
64 96th
YDS
1,053 99th
YPR
16.5 84th
TD
7 97th
Rushing
CAR
1 35th
YDS
45 83rd
YPC
45.0 100th
TD
1 96th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 17-24@ NC State | 6 | 66 | 11.0 | 0 | 18 | Season-high 156 yds |
| Wk 2 | W 56-3vs Campbell | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 3 | W 38-0@ Coastal Carolina | 11 | 136 | 12.4 | 0 | 31 | 136-yard receiving day |
| Wk 4 | L 13-34vs BYU | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 5 | W 28-6vs Army | 3 | 87 | 29.0 | 1 | 41 | |
| Wk 7 | L 19-26@ Tulane | 2 | 54 | 27.0 | 0 | 49 | |
| Wk 8 | W 41-27vs Tulsa | 4 | 150 | 37.5 | 2 | 66 | 2 TD catches |
| Wk 10 | W 45-14@ Temple | 2 | 58 | 29.0 | 0 | 35 | |
| Wk 11 | W 48-22vs Charlotte | 8 | 69 | 8.6 | 1 | 14 | |
| Wk 12 | W 31-27vs Memphis | 7 | 62 | 8.9 | 0 | 18 | |
| Wk 13 | L 24-58@ UTSA | 8 | 143 | 17.9 | 1 | 50 | 143-yard receiving day |
| Wk 14 | W 42-3@ Florida Atlantic | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 | |
| Bowl | W 23-17vs Pittsburgh | 4 | 156 | 39.0 | 2 | 72 | |
| Total | 64 | 1053 | 19.1 | 7 | 72 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021NC State9-3HC: Dave Doeren · Balanced
2022NC State8-5HC: Dave Doeren · Balanced
2023NC State9-4HC: Dave Doeren · Run-leaning
2025East Carolina9-4HC: Blake Harrell · Run-leaning, fast tempo
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | East Carolina | 64 | 1,053 | 16.5 | 7 | -- |
| 2023 | NC State | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | -- |
| 2022 | NC State | 2 | 58 | 29.0 | 1 | -- |
| 2021 | NC State | 4 | 97 | 24.2 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 72 | 1,227 | 17.0 | 9 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | East Carolina | 1 | 45 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2023 | NC State | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | NC State | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2021 | NC State | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 1 | 45 | -- | -- | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 64 | #41/1110 | 96th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 1,053 | #14/1107 | 99th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 7 | #37/1111 | 97th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 16.5 | #179/1106 | 84th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 20.4% | #83/1137 | 93rd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 45 | #16/346 | 96th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 45 | #67/397 | 83rd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 45.0 | #2/393 | 100th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Carries | 1 | #264/407 | 35th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 1 | #19/411 | 96th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 72 | #83/1105 | 93rd pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 10.6% | #93/1137 | 92nd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 10.0% | #92/1137 | 92nd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 9.2% | #94/1137 | 92nd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 9.1% | #136/1137 | 88th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 8.8% | #326/1137 | 71st pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 6.4% | #516/1137 | 55th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #391/1137 | 66th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #131/302 | 57th pct | Turnoversvs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 4.9 | 83.9 | 20.2 | 0.9 |
| Road6g | 5.0 | 77.7 | 17.7 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins9g | 5.1 | 85.1 | 20.0 | 0.7 |
| Losses4g | 4.5 | 71.8 | 17.0 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 4.9 | 80.3 | 19.6 | 0.4 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 5.0 | 81.8 | 18.5 | 0.7 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
87All-Conference
Elite: rec yards (97th). Strength: receptions (92nd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Anthony SmithEast CarolinaChris Brazzell IITennessee· 98% simCamden BrownGeorgia Southern· 96% simCooper BarkateDuke· 95% sim
Rec yards
Receptions
Rec TDs
Yards / catch
Long catch
Rush TDs
Rush yards
Fumbles lost
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Possession Receiver
Reliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Ted Hurst’s 2025 season.
Ted Hurst
82%match
All-Sun BeltNFL Rd 3 · Pk 20
#2
Jason Brownlee
All-Sun Belt
80%
#3
Tory Horton
All-Mountain WestNFL Rd 5
78%
#4
Jaden Bradley
All-Mountain West
78%
#5
Shaleak Knotts
78%
Matches Ted on
Total EPA (college ability)
EPA / play (adj)
Yards / reception
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Kahtero Summers’s path through Rhode Island.
Kahtero Summers
98%match
#2
Jalen Tolbert
All-Sun BeltNFL Rd 3 · Pk 24
95%
#3
Samson Nacua
95%
#4
Trent Hudson
95%
#5
Jackson Parham
91%
Matches Kahtero on
Yards per reception
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Blake Harrell
Pass share
44.5%
440 pass / 548 run
Plays / game
76.0
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
4.7%
343 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning, fast tempo.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
2 coaches2021
Mike Houston
East Carolina
2022
Mike Houston
East Carolina
2023
Mike Houston
East Carolina
2025era →
Blake Harrell
East Carolina
Coaching transition mid-career: Mike Houston → Blake Harrell. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownHuntingtown, MD
Height6'3"
Weight189 lb
Class4
PositionWR
Jersey9
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamEast Carolina
ConferenceAmerican Athletic
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | East Carolina | WR4 | #4031 | #3930 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | American Athletic |
| 2023 | NC State | WR4 | #2214 | #1935 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | ACC |
| 2022 | NC State | WR4 | #1498 | #1533 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | ACC |
| 2021 | NC State | WR4 | #1332 | #1281 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | ACC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | East Carolina | American Athletic | WR | 4 | No. 9 | 6-3 | 189 lb | Huntingtown, MD |
| 2024 | East Carolina | American Athletic | WR | 4 | No. 9 | 6-3 | 189 lb | Huntingtown, MD |
| 2023 | NC State | ACC | WR | 4 | No. 9 | 6-3 | 189 lb | Huntingtown, MD |
| 2022 | NC State | ACC | WR | 4 | No. 9 | 6-3 | 189 lb | Huntingtown, MD |
| 2021 | NC State | ACC | WR | 4 | No. 9 | 6-3 | 189 lb | Huntingtown, MD |