Next game: vs James Madison
James Madison’s best edge on Southern Miss is running
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Southern Miss offense against James Madison defense
James Madison offense against Southern Miss defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · -0.11 EPA/play | 18 | 8 | 116 / 201 | 57.7 | 1326 | 6.6 | 8 | 4 | 122.3 | 22 | 27.7 | 5.7 | 5.6 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Starter — 201 pass attempts and 35 carries in 8 games, fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 79 of 159 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Landry Lyddy's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · +0.30 EPA/play | 15 | — | 56 / 87 | 64.4 | 759 | 8.7 | 9 | 2 | 167.2 | — | — | 9.8 | 0 | |
Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Starter — 87 pass attempts and 29 carries in 8 games, fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. This week's matchup — QB Robinson operates within the system without forcing anything. Baker is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Yards / attempt8.4 71th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %65.8% 65th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jacobe Robinson's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| -0.14 EPA/play | 5 | 3 | 45 / 75 | 60 | 419 | 5.6 | 2 | 4 | 105.1 | 31 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.09 EPA/play | 14 | 8 | 142 | 728 #23 FBS | 5.1 | 9 #16 FBS | 42 | 9.9 | 12.0 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 142 carries and 16 catches in 8 games, more touches a game than nearly every FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Steven Robinson's full player page | ||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.13 EPA/play | 6 | 8 | 72 | 476 | 6.6 | 6 #55 FBS | 32 | 11.3 | 21.1 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. 72 carries and 7 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Wilder hits the crease and outruns the angle. Burnette is the one who just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Season receipt Yards / carry6.9 92th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception3.6 bottom 8th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jamarice Wilder's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.52 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 44 | 600 #43 FBS | 13.6 | 5 #39 FBS | 56 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Starter — 44 catches and 1 pass attempt in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR II wins underneath on volume and route precision. Jr. is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume44 94th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate11.4% 64th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mario Sanders II's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.55 EPA/play | 8 | 7 | 18 | 275 | 15.3 | 1 | 75 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View A.J. Little's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · -0.04 EPA/play | 7 | 6 | 16 | 211 | 13.2 | 0 | 38 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Saunders moves the chains on third down. Jr. is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception15.4 71th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.0 bottom 5th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kaden Saunders's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.39 EPA/play | 3 | 7 | 11 | 145 | 13.2 | 0 | 43 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.08 EPA/play | 11 | 4 | 10 | 133 | 13.3 | 1 | 32 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.06 EPA/play | 81 | 7 | 11 | 94 | 8.5 | 1 | 19 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Preston Kilgore's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.60 EPA/play | 13 | 4 | 7 | 78 | 11.1 | 1 | 33 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.08 EPA/play | 88 | 6 | 10 | 71 | 7.1 | 0 | 16 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. This week's matchup — TE Jr. shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Finley is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception5.3 bottom 6th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 12th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jeremiah Beck Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||
| +0.38 EPA/play | 84 | 3 | 5 | 63 | 12.6 | 0 | 33 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.25 EPA/play | 9 | 3 | 6 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 16 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 7 | 8 | 30 | 8 | 3.5 | 3 | 5 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Impact starter — 30 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate11.7% bottom 38th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kameron Cyprien's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 5 | 8 | 24 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — 24 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Nasim Cairo's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 9 | 8 | 24 | 7 | 4.5 | 4 | 2 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 24 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.8% 63th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jameer Lewis's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 90 | 8 | 22 | 10 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 22 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.9% 53th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View JR Stegall's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 17 | 7 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 18 tackles in 7 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 55th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ramon Pernas's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 11 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate6.7% bottom 23th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View A'mari Wilson's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 31 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate7.7% bottom 26th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Zachariah Keith's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 41 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate7.7% bottom 26th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Will Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 95 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Josh Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| 88 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 99 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 13 | 8 | 70 | 29 | 41 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — 70 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume70 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mathis Haygood's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 35 | 8 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 54 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Wesley Edison's full player page | |||||||||
| 33 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 42 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 53 | — | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 24 | 8 | 69 | 2 | 0 | 2.5 | 1 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — 69 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume69 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Michael Robinson III's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 25 | 8 | 55 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — 55 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume55 97th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Landon Sylvie's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 12 | 6 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 29 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Laquan Robinson's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 22 | 8 | 28 | 4 | 3 #16 FBS | 1 | 1 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 28 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate14.3% 80th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kobi Albert's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 19 | 7 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Malakai Murphy's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 1 | 8 | 21 | 7 #20 FBS | 0 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate33.3% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Champ Lewis's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jyaire Brown's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 20 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 15th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kolby Peavy's full player page | |||||||
| 26 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 16 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 7 | 4/9 | 44.4 | 25/25 | 37 | 47 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 36 | 8 | 39 | 1547 | 39.7 | 57 | 11 | 0 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.39 EPA/play | 3 | 7 | 8 | 155 | 19.4 | 0 | 35 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · -0.04 EPA/play | 7 | 6 | 6 | 82 | 13.7 | 0 | 41 |
| Possession Receiver · +0.55 EPA/play | 8 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 23 |
Biggest plays from Southern Miss’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Southern Miss’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 0:58 · Southern Miss down 3, takes the leadJamarice Wilder runs 16 yards for a touchdownLouisiana at Southern Miss, week 8Q4, 0:58 · Southern Miss 35, Louisiana 310:58Go-ahead touchdown for Southern Miss with 0:58 left0:58Go-ahead touchdown for Southern Miss with 0:58 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Southern Miss with 0:58 leftJ.Wilder rush middle for 16 yards gain to the UL00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Sun Belt Conference- Q4, 10:05 · Southern Miss down 7, ties itSouthern Miss scores a touchdownLouisiana at Southern Miss, week 8Q4, 10:05 · Southern Miss 28, Louisiana 28Pick-sixPick-sixKolby Peavy 0 yd Interception Return (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)▶Watch from this play Sun Belt Conference
Q4, 5:26 · Tulane down 4, takes the leadMaurice Turner runs 74 yards for a touchdownSouthern Miss at Tulane, week 4Q4, 5:26 · Tulane 24, Southern Miss 217474-yard touchdown run7474-yard touchdown run74-yard touchdown runM.Turner rush middle for 74 yards gain to the USM00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play Sun Belt Conference- Q4, 14:25 · Tulane down 7Landon Sylvie intercepts Kadin SemonzaSouthern Miss at Tulane, week 4Q4, 14:25 · Tulane 14, Southern Miss 21▼20%Tulane’s chance to win, 61% to 41%▼20%Tulane’s chance to win, 61% to 41%No Huddle K.Semonza pass intercepted by L.Sylvie at USM00 QB hurried by K.Cyprien, Touchback▶Watch from this play Sun Belt Conference
Q2, 9:53 · Louisiana down 7, ties itJJ Garner runs 42 yards for a touchdownLouisiana at Southern Miss, week 8Q2, 9:53 · Louisiana 14, Southern Miss 14Louisiana tied the game in the second quarterLouisiana tied the game in the second quarterJ.Garner rush left for 42 yards gain to the USM00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play Sun Belt Conference- Q3, 10:07 · Southern Miss breaks the tieLandy Lyddy finds Mario Sanders II for a 22-yard touchdownSouthern Miss at Tulane, week 4Q3, 10:07 · Southern Miss 21, Tulane 14Go-ahead score for Southern Miss in the third quarterGo-ahead score for Southern Miss in the third quarterMario Sanders 22 yd pass from Landry Lyddy (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)▶Watch from this play Sun Belt Conference
How scary each game got
Southern Miss lost at Tulane after being 83% to win; the closest win was against Louisiana, down to 17%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Southern Miss during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Southern Miss
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Southern MissMathis Haygood leads Southern Miss with 70 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+21 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Southern Miss fields a struggling pass-first offense behind a leaky defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Southern Miss reads strongest in red-zone defense (top 23%) and red-zone finish (top 37%); the crux lives in passing EPA, where Southern Miss sits at the 16th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Southern Miss is worth +3.3 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom third of FBS, 33rd percentile of 133 programs
36% at home, 29% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (16-28 home, 14-34 away). Interval ±3.9.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Southern Miss has beaten the number by +0.3 more at home than away over 101 games. That is inside the ±5.6 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
M. M. Roberts Stadium seats 36,000 and has averaged 69% full (24,677, 29 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 224 miles trip since 2018, the 11th-shortest of 135 FBS venues. There is no travel penalty on visitors here either way. 21% of the 2026 roster (33 of 155 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 53 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Deep threatElijah Metcalf is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
- Money downElijah Metcalf is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Deep threatBralon Brown is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Deep threatCarl Chester is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Deep threatJaylin Carter is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatMicah Davis is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Deep threatTychaun Chapman is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Steven Robinson and Jamarice Wilder split the carries (142/213 vs 71/213) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Jamarice Wilder produces in bigger chunks.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Mario Sanders II (WR) and Preston Kilgore (TE) split the targets (68/83 vs 15/83) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Mario Sanders II is the one trusted on 3rd down.
See it develop week by week
3rd-down target share, week by week (weeks both players actually played the role)
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Southern Miss actually scores
3rd percentile quality, 97th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Southern Miss’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 61st percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 59th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Southern Miss hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
48th percentile success on standard downs, 7th on passing downs — a 41-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Southern Miss by half
1st-half offense ranks 5th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 49th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Southern Miss’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.02; 13th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.00. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.40 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Southern Miss’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (63.8% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 240-play sample) — mid-pack, 24 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Southern Miss’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.9% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 177-play sample) — mid-pack, 85 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 57% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~48% league rate.
4 of 7 forced fumbles recovered; 3 of 5 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Converting 20% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~18% league rate.
6 interceptions of 30 disrupted passes (24 deflected, 6 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Winning the penalty battle: 54 penalties committed vs. 55 drawn on opponents, a 32-yard edge.
492 penalty yards committed vs. 524 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Southern Miss
Most similar programs · Southern MissReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
M. M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg, MS
Usual during the game around Nov 5: 64°, between 57° and 73° in about 7 in 10 games (31 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 72°, and 8 in 10 ran between 56° and 82° (49 of 56 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.