Western Kentucky

0-2

Conference USA · Tyson Helton, year 8 (57-38) · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · 22,113

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#53 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #114 (-13.1) · FPI #120
The marketIndiana by 44at Indiana · our model 8% Western Kentucky · a number, not a pick

LastL 20–70 at Georgia · Sat Sep 12 · Brock Glenn 84 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

Nextat Indiana · Sat Sep 19 · 4 pm ET · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana by 44 · series 0-5, lost the last 5 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
17.0
Pts allowed/game
59.5
Total yards/gm#123 / 138 · 11th pct
296.0
Rush yards/gm#99 / 138 · 29th pct
137.0
Pass yards/gm#121 / 138 · 13th pct
159.0
Yards allowed/gm#126 / 138 · 9th pct
489.5
Rush yds allowed/gm#135 / 138 · 3rd pct
278.5
SacksT-#136 / 138 · 1st pct
0
InterceptionsT-#63 / 115 · 23rd pct
1
3rd-down conv#88 / 138 · 37th pct
37.8%
All 84 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
592296.0/gm3.79/play#123 / 138 · 11th pct#66 / 70 · 6th pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
979489.5/gm8.30/play#126 / 138 · 9th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
274137.0/gm1.76/play#99 / 138 · 29th pct#51 / 70 · 28th pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
557278.5/gm4.72/play#135 / 138 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
7939.5/gmT-#51 / 138 · 62nd pctT-#25 / 70 · 64th pct#4 / 10 · 65th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
7738.5/gmT-#105 / 138 · 24th pct#62 / 70 · 12th pct#6 / 10 · 45th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
42.0/gmT-#51 / 138 · 54th pctT-#34 / 70 · 44th pctT-#3 / 10 · 60th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
84.0/gmT-#136 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
318159.0/gm2.04/play#121 / 138 · 13th pct#66 / 70 · 6th pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
422211.0/gm3.58/playT-#74 / 138 · 46th pctT-#46 / 70 · 34th pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
7738.5/gmT-#22 / 138 · 84th pctT-#9 / 70 · 87th pct#5 / 10 · 55th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4120.5/gmT-#9 / 138 · 93rd pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
4221.0/gmT-#55 / 138 · 59th pctT-#32 / 70 · 53rd pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2512.5/gmT-#14 / 138 · 89th pctT-#10 / 70 · 85th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
10.5/gmT-#114 / 138 · 11th pctT-#60 / 70 · 9th pctT-#9 / 10 · 10th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
73.5/gmT-#134 / 138 · 2nd pctT-#69 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
90.990.9#112 / 115 · 3rd pct#60 / 60 · 1st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
194.0194.0#90 / 91 · 2nd pct#42 / 42 · 1st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
21.0/gmT-#23 / 138 · 74th pctT-#8 / 70 · 77th pctT-#3 / 10 · 60th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 64th pctT-#11 / 70 · 64th pctT-#3 / 10 · 55th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
00.0/gmT-#136 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pctT-#9 / 10 · 10th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
52.5/gmT-#101 / 138 · 20th pctT-#56 / 70 · 14th pctT-#6 / 10 · 35th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
52.5/gmT-#130 / 138 · 5th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
147.0/gmT-#118 / 138 · 13th pctT-#66 / 70 · 6th pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
4020.0/gmT-#86 / 138 · 36th pctT-#51 / 70 · 27th pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3819.0/gmT-#81 / 138 · 40th pctT-#53 / 70 · 24th pctT-#6 / 10 · 40th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
147.0/gmT-#28 / 138 · 77th pctT-#14 / 70 · 77th pct#3 / 10 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
126.0/gmT-#91 / 138 · 30th pctT-#52 / 70 · 24th pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
3718.5/gm#9 / 138 · 94th pct#1 / 70 · 99th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2211.0/gmT-#13 / 138 · 89th pctT-#4 / 70 · 94th pctT-#1 / 10 · 90th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
21.0/gmT-#51 / 138 · 51st pctT-#28 / 70 · 49th pctT-#4 / 10 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#71 / 138 · 37th pctT-#40 / 70 · 32nd pctT-#3 / 10 · 60th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
31.5/gmT-#66 / 138 · 41st pctT-#35 / 70 · 44th pctT-#6 / 10 · 25th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#20 / 138 · 74th pctT-#10 / 70 · 72nd pctT-#2 / 10 · 80th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
63:3931:50/gm#54 / 138 · 61st pct#27 / 70 · 62nd pct#5 / 10 · 55th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
56:2128:10/gm#45 / 138 · 68th pct#27 / 70 · 62nd pct#3 / 10 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
-0.05 EPA/play5230 / 5455.62344.30188.33434.32.96.9
+0.77 EPA/play11212 / 2352.2843.71188.575.2
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
-0.16 EPA/play32321213.82
#43 FBS
23
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Deep Threat · +0.57 EPA/play1812211
#23 FBS
17.6053
+0.01 EPA/play428749.2021
+0.15 EPA/play8028658.1011
+0.13 EPA/play1925173.408

2026 stat leaders · Western Kentucky

through 2 games

Kennon Loftin leads Western Kentucky with 24 tackles through 2 games.

1. Kennon Loftin LB 24 tackles
2. Marvin Sims WR 211 receiving yards
3. Eli Jones LB 17 tackles
4. Jaylen Lewis DB 13 tackles
5. Justin Brown DB 9 tackles
How They Play · 2025

Western Kentucky fields a capable pass-first, methodical, ball-control offense behind a strong, gives up the big play defense.

Offense
47th pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
55% pass plays
Tempo
60th pct success, 31st explosiveness
Defense
67th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
17th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Western Kentucky · 2025

Western Kentucky reads strongest in success rate allowed (top 13%) and passing epa allowed (top 27%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Western Kentucky sits at the 16th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.17
47th
Success Rate +0.43
60th
Explosive Plays +1.21
31st
Rushing EPA +0.08
42nd

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.10
67th
Success Rate Allowed +0.36
88th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.35
17th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.17
74th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.25
50th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.08
49th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 13 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Western Kentucky · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Western Kentucky is worth +5.0 points more at home than on the road.

Middle of FBS, 66th percentile of 133 programs

63% at home, 47% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (24–14 home, 25–28 away). Interval ±4.3.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Western Kentucky has beaten the number by −1.6 more at home than away over 75 games — inside the ±7.5 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium seats 22,113 and has averaged 68% full (14,937, 24 games reported). Visitors cover a median 424 miles to get here since 2018 — 68th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is a home crowd more than a home town: only 7% of the 2026 roster (10 of 147 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 46 home games since 2018.

Home24–14Away25–28Edge+5.0 ±4.3Visitor trip424 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Western Kentucky hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

25th percentile success on standard downs, 34th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantWestern KentuckyWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

Pass-depth identity

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Western Kentucky’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.1% vs 68.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 69-play sample) — mid-pack, 7 of 41 qualifying offenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 59 claims, 59 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=69 short-zone plays, raw rate 59.4%
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Western Kentucky

CFB Zeitgeist

#53

+2.4

SP+

#114

-13.1

FPI

#120

-13.9

Elo

#126

1250

The national models put Western Kentucky between 114th and 126th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is higher on them than any of these models, at 53rd.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Western Kentucky

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

67°F average kickoff temp; 6% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.

Based on 71 home games with weather data.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site