Next game: at Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee’s best edge on Western Kentucky is big plays
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Western Kentucky offense against Middle Tennessee defense
Middle Tennessee offense against Western Kentucky defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.35 EPA/play | 11 | — | 109 / 154 | 70.8 | 1285 | 8.3 | 11 #57 FBS | 6 | 156.6 | — | — | 8.0 | 0 | |
ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. 154 pass attempts and 86 carries in 7 games. About as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Parks extends plays on the move until something opens up. Creel is the one who extends plays on the move until something opens up. Season receipt Rush usage35.8% 93th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %70.8% 91th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tucker Parks's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Scrambler · +0.06 EPA/play | 11 | 8 | 92 / 165 | 55.8 | 887 | 5.4 | 6 | 4 | 108.1 | 35 | 47.6 | 4.5 | 4.1 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Starter — 165 pass attempts and 91 carries in 8 games, fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. This week's matchup — QB Glenn extends plays on the move until something opens up. Creel is the one who extends plays on the move until something opens up. Season receipt Rush usage35.5% 92th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Yards / attempt5.3 bottom 2th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brock Glenn's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · -0.02 EPA/play | 5 | 6 | 80 / 123 | 65.0 | 883 | 7.2 | 4 | 2 | 132.8 | 46 | 35.1 | 6.1 | 7.5 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. 123 pass attempts and 31 carries in 6 games. Fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. This week's matchup — QB Jr. operates within the system without forcing anything. Creel is the one who extends plays on the move until something opens up. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.2 bottom 30th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry0.2 bottom 17th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Rodney Tisdale Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · -0.07 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 94 | 405 | 4.3 | 5 | 39 | 21.5 | 11.8 | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Starter — 94 carries and 18 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Allen wins in space out of the backfield. Likely is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Receiving share16.1% 84th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry4.4 bottom 20th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ajay Allen's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.00 EPA/play | 22 | 7 | 26 | 165 | 6.3 | 0 | 32 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.90 EPA/play | 18 | — | 39 | 665 #28 FBS | 17.1 | 3 | 65 | |
Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 39 catches and 1 carry in 9 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Sims beats you over the top. Johnson is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception16.5 80th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.9 91th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Marvin Sims's full player page | ||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.30 EPA/play | 80 | 8 | 46 | 439 | 9.5 | 1 | 42 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Impact starter — 46 catches and 10 carries in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Jr. wins underneath on volume and route precision. Johnson is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Reception volume46 96th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception9.6 bottom 14th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jonathan Stafford Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.51 EPA/play | 8 | 6 | 17 | 202 | 11.9 | 0 | 45 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Barry moves the chains on third down. Johnson is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception12.3 bottom 37th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint View Moussa Barry's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.24 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 14 | 153 | 10.9 | 1 | 23 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Flowers moves the chains on third down. Johnson is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception8.1 bottom 7th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume14 bottom 17th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cameron Flowers's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · -0.34 EPA/play | 12 | 8 | 12 | 147 | 12.2 | 1 | 42 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Burroughs moves the chains on third down. Johnson is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception11.9 bottom 33th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.3 bottom 1th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Quincy Burroughs's full player page | ||||||||
| Move TE · +0.65 EPA/play | 14 | 4 | 10 | 137 | 13.7 | 1 | 38 | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. This week's matchup — TE Ezirim creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Gilbert is the one who creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Season receipt Yards / reception14.2 81th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume10 bottom 22th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View CC Ezirim's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.18 EPA/play | 19 | 6 | 15 | 131 | 8.7 | 1 | 27 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 15 catches in 6 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Lofton Howard's full player page | ||||||||
| -0.15 EPA/play | 17 | 7 | 8 | 122 | 15.2 | 1 | 72 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.50 EPA/play | 87 | 6 | 10 | 93 | 9.3 | 2 | 23 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Coleson Arends's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.09 EPA/play | 7 | 5 | 7 | 76 | 10.9 | 0 | 22 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versatile End | 13 | 8 | 21 | 12 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 21 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Latrevion Thompson's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | — | 5 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 1.5 | 2 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate35.7% 97th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Mackavelli Malotumau's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 17 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Zsacari Minnis's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 45 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 3 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Josaiah Knight's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 33 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate5.0% bottom 19th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Zeiqui Lawton's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 52 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight315 lb 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jakeem Fletcher's full player page | |||||||
| 50 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 2.5 | 2 | 2 | |
| 16 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 93 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 55 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 98 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 38 | — | 63 | 34 | 29 | 2.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 63 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume63 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kennon Loftin's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 32 | 7 | 50 | 24 | 26 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 50 tackles in 7 games. More tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.0% 82th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Westen Ard's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 33 | — | 45 | 20 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 45 tackles in 9 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume45 66th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Eli Jones's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 21 | 6 | 38 | 22 | 16 | 3.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 38 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 82th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaylen Wester's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 22 | 5 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Jordan Donald's full player page | |||||||||
| 18 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 7 | 8 | 64 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — 64 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume64 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jaylen Lewis's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 6 | 8 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 35 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Justin Brown's full player pageTackle volume35 62th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 5 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate13.0% 75th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Dave Herard's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 14 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Braxton Myers's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 2 | 7 | 21 | 6 #43 FBS | 2 #51 FBS | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate28.6% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Tony Newsome Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 19 | — | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.5% 64th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Virgil Marshall's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 10 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 4 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Xavion Griffin's full player page | |||||||
| 3 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 39 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 6 | 8/9 | 88.9 | 18/18 | 42 | 45 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.30 EPA/play | 80 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 | 17 |
Biggest plays from Western Kentucky’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Western Kentucky’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q2, 10:52 · Western Kentucky breaks the tieAjay Allen runs 5 yards for a touchdownDelaware at Western Kentucky, week 9Q2, 10:52 · Western Kentucky 21, Delaware 14Western Kentucky took the lead in the second quarterWestern Kentucky took the lead in the second quarterA.Allen rush right for 5 yards gain to the DEL00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football
Q2, 2:21 · Nevada up 7Donnie Cheers runs 20 yards for a touchdownWestern Kentucky at Nevada, week 1Q2, 2:21 · Nevada 21, Western Kentucky 7▲16%Nevada’s chance to win, 73% to 89%▲16%Nevada’s chance to win, 73% to 89%D.Cheers rush right for 20 yards gain to the WKU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
Q2, 0:59 · Delaware breaks the tieNick Minicucci finds Jo'Nathan Silver for an 8-yard touchdownDelaware at Western Kentucky, week 9Q2, 0:59 · Delaware 28, Western Kentucky 2190Capped a 90-yard drive90Capped a 90-yard driveCapped a 90-yard driveN.Minicucci pass complete short middle to J.Silver caught at WKU10, for 8 yards to the WKU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football- Q1, 3:41 · Western Kentucky breaks the tieZion Taylor runs 1 yard for a touchdownDelaware at Western Kentucky, week 9Q1, 3:41 · Western Kentucky 14, Delaware 7Western Kentucky took the lead in the first quarterWestern Kentucky took the lead in the first quarterZ.Taylor rush right for 1 yard gain to the DEL00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 7:25 · Delaware down 7, ties itViron Ellison Jr. runs 5 yards for a touchdownDelaware at Western Kentucky, week 9Q2, 7:25 · Delaware 21, Western Kentucky 21Delaware tied the game in the second quarterDelaware tied the game in the second quarterV.Ellison Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WKU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q1, 10:06 · Western Kentucky tiedBrock Glenn finds Coleson Arends for a 23-yard touchdownWestern Kentucky at Sam Houston, week 7Q1, 10:06 · Western Kentucky 7, Sam Houston 0Western Kentucky opened the scoringWestern Kentucky opened the scoringB.Glenn pass complete short left to C.Arends caught at SAM07, for 23 yards to the SAM00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Western Kentucky lost to Delaware after being 82% to win; the closest win was at Sam Houston, down to 41%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Western Kentucky during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Western Kentucky
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Western KentuckyJaylen Lewis leads Western Kentucky with 64 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+21 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Western Kentucky fields a struggling pass-first offense behind a porous defense, though it gives up the big play.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Western Kentucky reads strongest in explosive plays (top 44%) and success rate allowed (top 51%); the crux lives in rushing EPA allowed, where Western Kentucky sits at the 11th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Western Kentucky is worth +5.3 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 68th percentile of 133 programs
62% at home, 46% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (25-15 home, 26-30 away). Interval ±4.2.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Western Kentucky has beaten the number by −1.1 more at home than away over 105 games. That is inside the ±6.1 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium seats 22,113 and has averaged 67% full (14,777, 27 games reported). Visitors cover a median 424 miles to get here since 2018 — 68th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is a home crowd more than a home town: only 7% of the 2026 roster (10 of 147 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 49 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downK.D. Hutchinson is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Money downMatthew Henry is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- UnderdogMoussa Barry produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Deep threatK.D. Hutchinson is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatMoussa Barry is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Ajay Allen and Le'Kamren Meadows split the carries (93/118 vs 25/118) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Le'Kamren Meadows produces in bigger chunks.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Jonathan Stafford Jr. (WR) and Lofton Howard (TE) split the targets (66/86 vs 20/86) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Western Kentucky actually scores
4th percentile quality, 96th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Western Kentucky’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 24th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 3rd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Western Kentucky hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
22nd percentile success on standard downs, 25th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Western Kentucky by half
1st-half offense ranks 32nd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 4th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Western Kentucky’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.03; 21st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.01. The widest gap came in week 4: -0.16 raw vs. -0.01 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Western Kentucky’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (63.9% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 260-play sample) — mid-pack, 25 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Western Kentucky’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.9% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 162-play sample) — mid-pack, 86 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 38% of the fumbles they've forced — running cold vs. the ~48% league rate.
3 of 8 forced fumbles recovered; 6 of 11 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Getting hands on the ball but not cashing in: 13% of disruptions converted, vs. the ~18% league rate.
4 interceptions of 30 disrupted passes (26 deflected, 4 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Winning the penalty battle: 38 penalties committed vs. 38 drawn on opponents, a 42-yard edge.
326 penalty yards committed vs. 368 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Western Kentucky
Most similar programs · Western KentuckyReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, KY
Usual during the game around Nov 14: 53°, between 42° and 64° in about 7 in 10 games (29 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 68°, and 8 in 10 ran between 48° and 81° (52 of 63 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.