CFB Zeitgeist Score
25
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 27th percentile.
Jaivian Thomas
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
306 RUSH YDS · 1 RUSH TD · 82 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to UCLA for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · UCLA
Returning around him
- 22% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- Transfer portal: +12 net (41 in / 29 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
UCLA · Last season: 3-9 · Talent rank #26 · 2026 recruiting class #46
RB · UCLA · BIG TEN
Jaivian Thomas
- 3
- #21
- 5-11 | 195 lb
- Oakland, CA
Heisman Heat
#104
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2023–2025+178%
Up 178% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3-star | 0.8678 | No. 888 recruit | HighSchool | California |
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8759 | No. 635 recruit | HighSchool | California |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | California -> UCLA | 3-star | 0.8900 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to California
Composite
0.8678
#888 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Jaivian Thomas
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Jaivian Thomas
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Rushing WEPA per carry
+0.050
EPA
P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries
National rank #60 of 66
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries 9th
Why it matters
#60 of 66 P4 + Notre Dame RBs by rushing weighted- EPA per carry — +0.050 EPA/carry on 84 carries.
Vs cohort
This player +0.050 (9th)
MODERATE · n=84 cohort 66
- Also strong
- Yards per carry#68 / 69
- Rushing yards (total)#69 / 69
Signature Moment
Week 6 vs Penn State — 60 ypc
Result W 42-37
The week the volume broke through — put up 60 yds vs Penn State.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 10g
306Rush yards
82Carries
1Rush TDs
Per game
30.6Rush yards
8Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
397.8Rush yards
107Carries
1Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 306): needs 148/game over remaining 3.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 306): needs 231.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 306): needs 398/game over remaining 3.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 1): needs 3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 1): needs 4.7/game over remaining 3.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 1): needs 6.3/game over remaining 3.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Jaivian Thomas's story is about how role and output meet each other. For UCLA, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
82 72nd
YDS
306 66th
YPC
3.7 25th
TD
1 56th
Receiving
REC
10 61st
YDS
64 56th
YPR
6.4 44th
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 10 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 10-43vs Utah | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 2 | L 23-30@ UNLV | 5 | 43 | 8.6 | 0 | 32 | |
| Wk 3 | L 10-35vs New Mexico | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 5 | L 14-17@ Northwestern | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 | 13 | |
| Wk 6 | W 42-37vs Penn State | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 0 | 15 | Season-high 60 yds |
| Wk 7 | W 38-13@ Michigan State | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 1 | 17 | |
| Wk 8 | W 20-17vs Maryland | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | 5 | |
| Wk 9 | L 6-56@ Indiana | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 | 4 | |
| Wk 11 | L 21-28vs Nebraska | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 | 21 | |
| Wk 12 | L 10-48@ Ohio State | 9 | 17 | 1.9 | 0 | 7 | |
| Total | 82 | 306 | 3.8 | 1 | 32 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023California6-7HC: Justin Wilcox · Run-leaning
2024California6-7HC: Justin Wilcox · Balanced
2025UCLA3-9HC: Deshaun Foster · Balanced, slow tempo
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | UCLA | 82 | 306 | 3.7 | 1 | -- |
| 2024 | California | 100 | 626 | 6.3 | 7 | -- |
| 2023 | California | 18 | 110 | 6.1 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 200 | 1,042 | 5.2 | 9 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | UCLA | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 0 | -- |
| 2024 | California | 11 | 91 | 8.3 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | California | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 24 | 179 | 7.5 | 1 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 306 | #254/735 | 66th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 1 | #323/739 | 56th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 3.7 | #549/735 | 25th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 10 | #217/552 | 61st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 64 | #242/548 | 56th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.05 | #298/362 | 18th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 84 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 15.5% | #170/738 | 77th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 82 | #205/739 | 72nd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 32 | #286/733 | 61st pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 12 | #365/540 | 33rd pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 6.4 | #310/548 | 44th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 27.4% | #150/738 | 80th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 20.4% | #134/738 | 82nd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 17.8% | #171/738 | 77th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 16.7% | #140/738 | 81st pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 10.1% | #198/738 | 73rd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 6.0% | #397/738 | 46th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 3.7% | #253/738 | 66th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 10 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home5g | 27.4 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| Road5g | 33.8 | 4.6 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins3g | 40.3 | 3.5 | 0.3 |
| Losses7g | 26.4 | 3.9 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 38.5 | 4.8 | 0.2 |
| Weeks 8+4g | 18.8 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
25Below cohort
Concern: yards / carry (7th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.05Below (<p25) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Jaivian ThomasUCLATae MeadowsTroy· 65% simChavon WrightNorthern Illinois· 62% simKamari MoultonIowa· 59% sim
Carries
Receptions
Rec yards
Long run
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Yards / carry
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Rodrigues Clark’s 2020 season.
Rodrigues Clark
80%match
#2
Jordan Simmons
78%
#3
Davion Ervin-Poindexter
80%
#4
DJ Butler
79%
#5
A'Jon Vivens
77%
Matches Rodrigues on
Yards / carry
Yards / reception
Class year
Differs from Rodrigues on
Recruiting rating (lower)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Demetric Felton’s path through UCLA.
Demetric Felton
97%match
NFL Rd 6
#2
Joshua Samuel
96%
#3
Tyler Goodson
All-Big Ten
89%
#4
Garrett Groshek
89%
#5
Christian Washington
All-Mountain West
89%
Matches Demetric on
Yards per carry
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Charvis Thornton's junior season at Louisiana Tech (2023).
Charvis Thornton
80%match
#2
Ja'Vin Simpkins
78%
#3
Tre Wisner
77%
#4
Alexander Diggs
75%
#5
Nathan Carter
75%
Matches Charvis on
Rush TD rate
EPA / carry (adj)
Height
Differs from Charvis on
Yards / reception (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Deshaun Foster
Pass share
48.9%
358 pass / 374 run
Plays / game
61.0
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
9.3%
280 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced, slow tempo.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
2 coaches2023
Chip Kelly
UCLA
2024era →
Deshaun Foster
UCLA
2025
Deshaun Foster
UCLA
Coaching transition mid-career: Chip Kelly → Deshaun Foster. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownOakland, CA
Height5'11"
Weight195 lb
Class3
PositionRB
Jersey21
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamUCLA
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | California | RB3 | #104 | #132 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | ACC |
| 2023 | California | RB3 | #1275 | #1384 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Pac-12 |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | UCLA | Big Ten | RB | 3 | No. 21 | 5-11 | 195 lb | Oakland, CA |
| 2024 | California | ACC | RB | 3 | No. 21 | 5-11 | 195 lb | Oakland, CA |
| 2023 | California | Pac-12 | RB | 3 | No. 21 | 5-11 | 195 lb | Oakland, CA |