No. 7 UCLA beats Nevada 27-0

Team pages: Nevada · UCLA

Nevada3-50
No. 7 UCLA8-027Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif. · Crowd 24,611BTN

No. 7 UCLA beat Nevada 27-0.

We had UCLA favored. It won.

Next: Nevada vs New Mexico, Fri Nov 6 · 9:00 PM ET · Nevada underdog by 9.5

Next: UCLA at Minnesota, Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET · UCLA favored by 5.5

Are we allowed to call Wayne Knight the Dark Knight? It feels wrong
A UCLA fan

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave UCLA a 97% chance, and the closing betting line (UCLA was a 22.5-point favorite) put it at 97%.

Favored the whole way: UCLA never fell below 93%.

Nevada never had better than a 7% chance.

Pick-sixUCLA · Q1 7:33
FinalUCLA 27-0 NevadaUCLA wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4UCLAWon27-0ScoresPick-six
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4UCLAWon27-0ScoresPick-six
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4UCLALowest 0%Lost0-27ScoresPick-six
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4UCLALowest 0%Lost0-27ScoresPick-six

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

UCLA’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (UCLA -22.5), at 96% for UCLA (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show UCLA’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 14:54Duncan intercepted by Jackson at the Nevada 30Q1, 14:54 · UCLA 0, Nevada 00-0score after the play0-0score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  2. Q1, 9:51Duncan intercepted by Woods at the UCLA 16Q1, 9:51 · UCLA 3, Nevada 0▲2%UCLA’s chance to win, 94% to 96%▲2%UCLA’s chance to win, 94% to 96%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  3. Q1, 7:33Duncan intercepted by Barksdale at the Nevada 26 and returned for a TDUCLA leads 10-0Q1, 7:33 · UCLA 10, Nevada 0▲3%UCLA’s chance to win, 95% to 98%▲3%UCLA’s chance to win, 95% to 98%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  4. Q1, 1:21Bianco sacked for a 6-yd lossQ1, 1:21 · UCLA 10, Nevada 010-0score after the play10-0score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  5. Q3, 7:42Dieffenbach 12-yd TD pass to KnightUCLA leads 24-0Q3, 7:42 · UCLA 24, Nevada 024-0score after the play24-0score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX

Every drive

UCLA scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Nevada on 0 of its 11.

UCLA’s drives are teal, Nevada’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Nevada: Interception, from 75 yards out to 75InterceptionUCLA: Field goal, from 28 yards out to 8Field goalNevada: Interception, from 65 yards out to 18InterceptionUCLA: Punt, from 83 yards out to 78PuntNevada: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 71 yards out to 73Interception TDNevada: Punt, from 75 yards out to 62PuntUCLA: Punt, from 92 yards out to 92PuntNevada: Punt, from 52 yards out to 34PuntQ2UCLA: Punt, from 98 yards out to 62PuntNevada: Punt, from 86 yards out to 64PuntUCLA: Touchdown, from 71 yards out to 0TouchdownNevada: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntUCLA: Missed field goal, from 72 yards out to 33Missed FGQ3UCLA: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNevada: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 30Missed FGUCLA: Punt, from 69 yards out to 48PuntNevada: Punt, from 87 yards out to 90PuntQ4UCLA: Field goal, from 47 yards out to 19Field goalNevada: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntUCLA: Punt, from 66 yards out to 67PuntNevada: Interception, from 74 yards out to 50InterceptionUCLA: End of game, from 53 yards out to 54End of game

When fans got loud

Firestorm

Fans had the most to say in the opening quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was firestorm; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthUCLA fansNevada fansusual

What it cost

UCLA’s chance to make the playoff rose from 42% to 44%.

Make the playoff

Nevada · lost0% → 0%
UCLA · won42% → ▲44%42%▲ 44%

Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

UCLA plays at Minnesota on Sat Nov 7 with a 44% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

UCLA 27, Nevada 0

UCLA covered −22.5 by 4.5. The total, 27, stayed under 43.5.

NevadaUCLATotal yardsNevada 176UCLA 303176303Passing yardsNevada 111UCLA 178111178Rushing yardsNevada 65UCLA 12565125First downsNevada 10UCLA 141014TurnoversNevada 4UCLA 040Time of possessionNevada 30:44UCLA 29:1630:4429:16
Team totalsNevadaUCLA
Total yards176303
Passing8 of 24, 111 yds16 of 30, 178 yds
Rushing35 for 65 yds29 for 125 yds
First downs1014
Third down5 of 165 of 13
Fourth down1 of 20 of 0
Turnovers40
Penalties3 for 15 yds4 for 33 yds
Time of possession30:4429:16

Nevada leaders

  • Passing AJ Bianco 6 of 13, 71 yds
  • Rushing Herschel Turner 11 for 28 yds; Janerious Jackson 4 for 13 yds
  • Receiving Marshaun Brown 3 for 51 yds; Donnie Cheers 1 for 36 yds

UCLA leaders

  • Passing Ty Dieffenbach 16 of 30, 178 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Wayne Knight 11 for 53 yds; Anthony Woods 8 for 36 yds
  • Receiving Jalen Saint Paul 3 for 52 yds; Brian Rowe Jr. 2 for 43 yds

48° at the start

48° at kickoff · rain amounts not reported at this airport

Colder than 9 in 10 of the 70 other games played at Rose Bowl since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 72°, with about 7 in 10 games between 64° and 81°.

October game-day temperatures at Rose Bowl

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4UCLA favoredNevada favored100%Win chanceUCLARaininches per 10 min0.1 inRain amounts not reported hereWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4UCLA favoredNevada favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inRain amounts not reported hereWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:54 left1:18 p.m.
Nevada 0, UCLA 0 · UCLA 96% to win
48°
Duncan intercepted by Jackson at the Nevada 30
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Mount Wilson airport, 7.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Nevada · 3-4

Rated 229th in our preseason ratings, 146th now, up 83 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 28-13 vs San José State No. 138 of 668 teams

won by 15 as a 6-point favorite

Nevada won 28-13 vs San José State. Chance to win started at 76%, low 70%, high better than 99%.

L 17-31 @ North Dakota State No. 56 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as a 14.5-point underdog

Nevada lost 17-31 at North Dakota State. Chance to win started at 11%, low under 1%, high 45%.

W 30-13 @ UTEP No. 239 of 668 teams

won by 17 as a 10-point favorite

Nevada won 30-13 at UTEP. Chance to win started at 69%, low 67%, high better than 99%.

L 33-36 vs Air Force No. 88 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog

Nevada lost 33-36 vs Air Force. Chance to win started at 47%, low under 1%, high 67%.

L 20-27 @ Middle Tennessee No. 124 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite

L 7-20 vs Montana State No. 75 of 668 teams

lost by 13 as a 4.5-point underdog

Nevada lost 7-20 vs Montana State. Chance to win started at 37%, low under 1%, high 38%.

W 49-14 vs Western Kentucky No. 47 of 668 teams

won by 35 as a 1.5-point underdog

Nevada won 49-14 vs Western Kentucky. Chance to win started at 54%, low 54%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

UCLA · 7-0

Rated 62nd in our preseason ratings, 20th now, up 42 spots.

Three straight wins, including a 2-point win over Oregon as a 10-point underdog.

W 28-10 vs Michigan State No. 118 of 668 teams

won by 18 as a 16.5-point favorite

UCLA won 28-10 vs Michigan State. Chance to win started at 90%, low 61%, high better than 99%.

W 17-7 vs WisconsinTop 25 No. 49 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 1.5-point favorite

UCLA won 17-7 vs Wisconsin. Chance to win started at 62%, low 59%, high better than 99%.

W 17-15 @ OregonTop 25 No. 8 of 668 teams

won by 2 as a 10-point underdog

UCLA won 17-15 at Oregon. Chance to win started at 27%, low 13%, high better than 99%.

W 54-3 @ Maryland No. 76 of 668 teams

won by 51 as a 2.5-point favorite

UCLA won 54-3 at Maryland. Chance to win started at 48%, low 39%, high better than 99%.

W 52-38 vs Purdue No. 123 of 668 teams

won by 14 as a 13.5-point favorite

UCLA won 52-38 vs Purdue. Chance to win started at 90%, low 68%, high better than 99%.

W 28-10 vs San Diego State No. 45 of 668 teams

won by 18 as a 13.5-point favorite

UCLA won 28-10 vs San Diego State. Chance to win started at 88%, low 76%, high better than 99%.

W 45-24 @ California No. 63 of 668 teams

won by 21 as a 2.5-point favorite

UCLA won 45-24 at California. Chance to win started at 47%, low 26%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

UCLA

Wk 3: W 52-38 vs Purdue▲14PurdueWk 4: W 54-3 at Maryland▲51MarylandWk 6: W 17-15 at Oregon▲2OregonWk 7: W 17-7 vs Wisconsin▲10WisconsinWk 8: W 28-10 vs Michigan State▲18Michigan…
  • Wk 3Wvs Purdue52-38
  • Wk 4Wat Maryland54-3
  • Wk 6Wat Oregon17-15
  • Wk 7Wvs Wisconsin17-7
  • Wk 8Wvs Michigan State28-10

Nevada

Wk 3: L 20-27 at Middle Tennessee▼7M. Tenne…Wk 4: L 33-36 vs Air Force▼3Air ForceWk 6: W 30-13 at UTEP▲17UTEPWk 7: L 17-31 at North Dakota State▼14N. Dakot…Wk 8: W 28-13 vs San José State▲15S. José…
  • Wk 3Lat Middle Tennessee20-27
  • Wk 4Lvs Air Force33-36
  • Wk 6Wat UTEP30-13
  • Wk 7Lat North Dakota State17-31
  • Wk 8Wvs San José State28-13

Power rating by week

UCLA is rated 13.8 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

12-1-13Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8UCLANevada

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Nevada’s passing EPA against UCLA, 90 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Nevada’s passing EPA against UCLA’s defense

    90 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Nevada offense, 10th percentile · UCLA defense, 100th

  2. Nevada’s EPA/play against UCLA’s defense

    81 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Nevada offense, 19th percentile · UCLA defense, 100th

  3. UCLA’s explosive plays against Nevada’s defense

    56 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UCLA offense, 5th percentile · Nevada defense, 61st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

NevadaUCLA
EPA/play, offense
Nevada · 19UCLA · 61
EPA/play, defense
Nevada · 42UCLA · 100
Success rate, offense
Nevada · 16UCLA · 74
Success rate, defense
Nevada · 76UCLA · 98
Explosive-play rate, offense
Nevada · 74UCLA · 5
Explosive-play rate, defense
Nevada · 61UCLA · 82
Rush EPA, offense
Nevada · 53UCLA · 89
Rush EPA, defense
Nevada · 29UCLA · 99
Pass EPA, offense
Nevada · 10UCLA · 29
Pass EPA, defense
Nevada · 56UCLA · 100

The series

UCLA leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2013 · UCLA won the last meeting

  • 2013UCLA 58-20

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

UCLA fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (43rd percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

50-50Model 97% · Line 97%UCLA fans · 43rdNevada fans · 60thNevadaUCLA

UCLA favored by 22.5 · Total 43.5

How games like this usually go

UCLA by 22.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 430 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Nevada.

opened −23.5now −22.5

The total fell 5 points.

opened 48.5now 43.5

Spread: −23.5 → −22.5 · Total: 48.5 → 43.5

The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

UCLA has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.3 points (±3.9), home against road — 3rd percentile of FBS.

51% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (27-26 home, 21-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -7.5 at home vs. away over 99 games — outside the ±6.2 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 383 miles to get here.

Where next