Playoff odds35% → 38%CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after
Saturday: vs. MSUMichigan State
Sat Oct 24, 3:30 pm ET · MSUMichigan State is 2-5 · First meeting between Chesney and Pat Fitzgerald as head coaches · UCLA’s chance to win: 95% (the site’s model)
Fan threads naming him, Oct 18–23: 1, from 1 person.
Fans are feeling good about UCLA
HALLOWEEN PLOTS What’s the best place to go on the 31st??? 21+ NOT IN WESTWOOD pleaseeeee
I believe that UCLA has a very strong chance of going 12-0. I can't believe I'm saying this...
finally some ucla respect
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
Offense: 47th of 138 per play. Defense: 1st.
Through 6 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is UCLA. The other two rows are where UCLA stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.
6 games left
Sat Oct 24vs. MSUMichigan State (2-5)95%
Sat Oct 31vs. NEVNevada (2-4)BTN98%
Sat Nov 7at MINNMinnesota (4-2)84%
Fri Nov 13vs. ILLIllinois (3-3)92%
Sat Nov 21at MICHMichigan (4-2)68%
Sat Nov 28vs. USCUSC (6-1)67%
Percent: UCLA’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where UCLA stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2024). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
He stepped up in the moment where we need him to. At the same point in time, he commanded the offense very, very well. What got him there is we’re looking at this on a week-to-week basis. And he had a really good week of practice. He did a really good job, and he brings a lot to the table.
The quarterback (Browne) and his timing with the receivers – the routes they ran, the precision and the places he put it – couldn’t really get much pressure
I think you got to fight and scratch and claw for everything that you got, and you got to bring these kids together as quickly as you possibly can that maybe never played together before, and with coaches that maybe never coached together before
Hired into 39–39, National Program I. Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
Of the 5 closest comps, 3 left the program higher than he found it and 2 left it lower. Median stay: 6 seasons.
Every coach hired into a National Program I job since 1990 (55): typically -1.8 after year 1, -2.2 after year 2.
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
▼ Lower
His first season at UCLA
▲ Higher
No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
▲ Higher
Age 49 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Part three · The career
Coaching career
Steady no large move in either direction on our stature ladder
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 243 lbs
across 37 of 43 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+6.4 lbs
#56 of 255 · top quarter
Avg. class year
Fr
#255 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.0★
rated arrivals only
Top states: CA (4), VA (4), GA (3), TX (2), FL (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
54.8
position-weighted
Talent lost
55.8
position-weighted
Net
-1.0
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Ty Dieffenbach (QB) from Cal Poly
Biggest loss: Karson Gordon (QB) to Austin Peay
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Cornerback via the portal
100%
#1 of 236 stints
Buys Edge via the portal
100%
#1 of 208 stints
1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Wayne Knight (2026)
6-0
2024–2025
James MadisonSteady◆ coach of the year
Regional Program I → National Program III
Bob Chesney moved James Madison from Regional Program I to National Program III in 2 seasons.
Followed Curt Cignetti (2022–2023) · succeeded by Billy Napier (2026–now).
System Shift, on departure
System Shift, on arrival
Season
2024
2025
Trend
Record & result
Record
9-4
12-2
Postseason
W bowl
CFP loss
Coordinators
OC
Dean Kennedy
Dean Kennedy
DC
Lyle Hemphill
Colin Hitschler
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
32
89
Defense
91
93
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
45.9
39.2
Red-zone pass%
39.3
26.4
4th-down go%opp. territory
45.0
36.4
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+26.1 pts
#18 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
+56.0 pts
#1 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
A portal-built roster.
Portal arrivals
55
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
49
left via the portal
Net portal flow
+6
#16 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 228 lbs
across 46 of 55 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+1.9 lbs
#194 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: VA (7), NJ (7), NY (4), OH (4), NC (4)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
53.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
55.5
position-weighted
Net
-1.8
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Matthew Sluka (QB) from UNLV
Biggest loss: Jordan McCloud (QB) to Texas State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Lyle Hemphill → Colin Hitschler · 2025
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Quarterback via the portal
75%
#5 of 206 stints
Buys Wide receiver via the portal
79%
#12 of 243 stints
Postseason detail2024: Beat Western Kentucky 27-17 Boca Raton Bowl2025: Lost to Oregon 34-51 College Football Playoff First Round Game
Coach of the Year: Sun Belt Coach of the Year (2025)
AI Narratives — “James Madison Ascends” and 4 more on the team page.
21-6
Big games
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
One-score games
1-0
100.0% · margin ≤8
Against the spread
6-0
all 6 had a line
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
2-0 100.0%
National Program
2-0 100.0%
Regional Program
2-0 100.0%
Signature games
1-0 vs. AP top 25 · 0-0 vs. the top 10
Signature wins
WOR
Oregon · 2026
17-15
UpsetQuality opponent
WWI
Wisconsin · 2026
17-7
Quality opponent
WUM
Maryland · 2026
54-3
Quality opponent
Signature losses
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered season
How good is he so far?
Too new to grade — in-season movement only
UCLA’s composite stature has risen since preseason: 38.5 entering the year to 41.2 through week 8 (National Program I) · #7 of 138 in movement since preseason · top quarter.
Part four · How he builds a team
Four numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
None of his UCLA classes is ranked and fully his yet. Across his other stops, his own classes averaged #108 nationally.
JMJames Madison
2024
#108
Transition
2025
#108
His class
UCUCLA
2026
#62
Transition
Across every program: 1 ranked class of his own, averaging #108 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Followed him here
at least11players
JMJames Madison→UCUCLA2026
At least 11 players followed him from James Madison to UCLA.
Aiden Gobaira DL
Carter Sweazie OL
DJ Barksdale DB
Drew Spinogatti LB
JD Rayner OL
Josh Phifer TE
Landon Ellis WR
Riley Robell OL
Sahir West DL
Trent Hendrick LB
Wayne Knight RB
Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
53%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 64 of 121 players. The other 57 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Arrived under him 64Inherited 57
Of his own players on this roster, 55% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2026–2026Counting players who have since left: 55% of the 64 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Where he recruits
CATop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 14 of 21 signees (67%) across his 2026–2026 tenure, drawn from 6 states in all. Next: CO (3).
Where his signees came from, 2026–2026 (21 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
67% of his signees come from CA and its 3 border states.
Off this map: 2 signees to the east (AL, MA).
By region
West
18
South
2
Northeast
1
Roster distance from campus (Rose Bowl, CA)
median hometown distance
337 mi
within 100 mi
41%
within 500 mi
56%
beyond 1,000 mi
36%
119 of 121 roster players with a known hometown (98% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.