cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Jaziun Patterson /Iowa

Jaziun Patterson

RB · Iowa · Jr · #4

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

296 RUSH YDS · 0 RUSH TD · 60 CARRIES

2026 TRANSFERTransferred Iowa → Michigan State for 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to Michigan State

2025Iowa
2026Michigan State

RB · IOWA · BIG TEN

Jaziun Patterson

  • 3
  • #4
  • 5-10 | 210 lb
  • Pompano Beach, FL

CFB Zeitgeist Score

20

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 49th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#304

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R06 · Starter

Starter. A locked-in starting role.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · rushing yards

2022–2025
47.02022
2062023
3092024
2962025

+530%

Up 530% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#663 national
CFB
College
Iowa
2022–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB
Class3
Jersey4
Measurements5-10 | 210 lb
HometownPompano Beach, FL
Primary teamIowa

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 663 recruit
Composite rating 0.8748 HighSchool
Signed with -- 2022
Origin Deerfield Beach Deerfield Beach, FL, USA
Class Profile Context
2022 3-star | 0.8748 No. 663 recruit | HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Michigan State 2026
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 8, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 Iowa -> Michigan State 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#304Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#351Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to —

Composite

0.8748

#663 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Jaziun Patterson

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

100

Grounded Optimism

Sample 1 mentions
Confidence BELOW-FLOOR

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmOwn fans: 1 mentions · belief +100 · "Kansas State Wildcats light up the offseason with the hire of Cory Patterson as "Own fansNational: 1 mentions · belief +0 · "A/N This ended up being so long I’m gonna have to split this into multiple diffe"National
  • Own fans · n=1
  • National · n=1

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Jaziun Patterson

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the rushing totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 10g
296Rush yards
60Carries
0Rush TDs
Per game
29.6Rush yards
6Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
384.8Rush yards
78Carries
0Rush TDs

To hit 750-yard season (currently 296): needs 151.3/game over remaining 3.

To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 296): needs 234.7/game over remaining 3.

To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 296): needs 401.3/game over remaining 3.

To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 3.3/game over remaining 3.

To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 5/game over remaining 3.

To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 6.7/game over remaining 3.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Jaziun Patterson's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Iowa, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #304 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 10.4% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Development arc The card should explain why this profile stands out

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Scrimmage yards 305 296 rush | 9 rec | #264/735 (64th pct)
Rush TD 0 60 carries | #447/739 (40th pct)
Yards/carry 4.9 Per-rush efficiency | #305/735 (59th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Rushing

CAR
60 63rd
YDS
296 64th
YPC
4.9 59th
TD
0 40th

Receiving

REC
3 33rd
YDS
9 16th
YPR
3.0 11th
TD
0 70th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 10 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCARYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1W 34-7vs UAlbany7476.7017
Wk 2L 13-16@ Iowa State11605.5010Season-high 60 yds
Wk 3W 47-7vs Massachusetts10545.4011
Wk 4W 38-28@ Rutgers6376.2012
Wk 9W 41-3vs Minnesota5183.606
Wk 11L 16-18vs Oregon2105.005
Wk 12L 21-26@ USC8374.6010
Wk 13W 20-17vs Michigan State6244.0012
Wk 14W 40-16@ Nebraska2126.009
BowlW 34-27@ Vanderbilt3-3-1.002
Total602964.6017
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Iowa8-5HC: Kirk Ferentz · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2023Iowa10-4HC: Kirk Ferentz · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2024Iowa8-5HC: Kirk Ferentz · Run-heavy
2025Iowa9-4HC: Kirk Ferentz · Run-heavy, slow tempo
SeasonTeam
2025Iowa602964.90--
2024Iowa633094.92--
2023Iowa582063.62--
2022Iowa14473.40--
Career4 loaded seasons1958584.44--
SeasonTeam
2025Iowa393.00--
2024Iowa133.00--
2023Iowa4225.50--
2022Iowa111.00--
Career4 loaded seasons9353.90--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work 3 9 rec yds | #371/552 (33rd pct)
Usage 10.4% 15.5% rush share | #306/738 (59th pct)
Rushing WEPA +0.14 Opponent-adjusted rush value | #141/362 (61st pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Rushing Rushing yards 296 #264/735 64th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rush TD 0 #447/739 40th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing Yards / carry 4.9 #305/735 59th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receptions 3 #371/552 33rd pct Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving yards 9 #460/548 16th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Value Rushing WEPA +0.14 #141/362 61st pct Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 53 weighted playsvs FBS RB
Usage Role share 10.4% #306/738 59th pct Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing Carries 60 #276/739 63rd pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rushing LONG 17 #434/733 41st pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving LONG 5 #482/540 11th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Yards / catch 3.0 #489/548 11th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving TD 0 #169/552 70th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Usage Rush share 15.5% #338/738 54th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage 1st-down usage 14.6% #236/738 68th pct Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Standard-down usage 12.5% #284/738 62nd pct Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage 2nd-down usage 9.3% #370/738 50th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage 3rd-down usage 4.4% #468/738 37th pct Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Passing-down usage 4.2% #509/738 31st pct Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage Pass share 2.0% #401/738 46th pct Air-game usagevs FBS RB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 10 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Home5g30.64.90.0
Road5g28.64.30.0

Win vs Loss

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Wins7g27.04.40.0
Losses3g35.75.00.0

First half vs Second half

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Weeks 1-75g39.04.60.0
Weeks 8+5g20.24.60.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

20Below cohort
7 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: rush tds (3rd).

Yards / carry#171 / 349 · 49th pct
4.9rush
Rush yards#264 / 349 · 24th pct
296rush
Carries#276 / 349 · 20th pct
60rush
Receptions#305 / 338 · 8th pct
3rece
Long run#319 / 349 · 8th pct
17rush
Rec yards#319 / 338 · 6th pct
9rece
Rush TDs#326 / 349 · 3rd pct
0rush

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · RB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

wepa_rushing0.14Mid (p50–p75) (n=178)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Jaziun PattersonIowaJordan BrunsonMiami (OH)· 56% simChavon WrightNorthern Illinois· 54% simTae MeadowsTroy· 52% sim
Yards / carry
49
Patterson
41
Brunson
33
Wright
29
Meadows
Rush yards
24
Patterson
80
Brunson
84
Wright
74
Meadows
Carries
20
Patterson
85
Brunson
92
Wright
84
Meadows
Receptions
8
Patterson
2
Brunson
32
Wright
45
Meadows
Long run
8
Patterson
73
Brunson
49
Wright
53
Meadows
Rec yards
6
Patterson
3
Brunson
10
Wright
38
Meadows
Rush TDs
3
Patterson
50
Brunson
62
Wright
72
Meadows

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Balanced Back

Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.

RB

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jevyon Ducker’s 2021 season.

Jevyon Ducker

80%match

Northern Illinois · 2021

#2

Jabari Small

Tennessee · 2023

76%
#3

Juma Otoviano

Rice · 2022

75%
#4

Jaziun Patterson

Iowa · 2024

73%
#5

Pat Garwo III

Boston College · 2023

70%

Matches Jevyon on

Weight
Yards / carry
Class year

Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to CJ Verdell’s path through Oregon.

CJ Verdell

95%match

Oregon · 2021

#2

Andrew Body

Alabama State · 2025

94%
#3

Trestan Ebner

Baylor · 2021

NFL Rd 6
92%
#4

Kay'Ron Adams

Michigan State · 2024

91%
#5

Domonique Thomas

Ole Miss · 2024

91%

Matches CJ on

Height
Weight
Yards per carry

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Dallan Hayden's senior season at Colorado (2025).

Dallan Hayden

74%match

Colorado · 2025

#2

Donald Chaney Jr.

Miami · 2023

72%
#3

Pat Garwo III

Boston College · 2023

71%
#4

Justice Ellison

Wake Forest · 2023

68%
#5

Jabari Small

Tennessee · 2023

All-SEC
68%

Matches Dallan on

Yards / carry
Weight
Rush TD rate

Differs from Dallan on

EPA / carry (adj) (higher)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Kirk Ferentz

Pass share

36.6%

286 pass / 495 run

Plays / game

60.1

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

7.9%

228 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-heavy, slow tempo.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

1 coach
2022
Kirk Ferentz
Iowa
2023
Kirk Ferentz
Iowa
2024
Kirk Ferentz
Iowa
2025
Kirk Ferentz
Iowa

Played his entire career under Kirk Ferentz.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownPompano Beach, FL
Height5'10"
Weight210 lb
Class3
PositionRB
Jersey4

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Iowa RB3 #304 #351 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big Ten
2023 Iowa RB3 #868 #805 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Big Ten
2022 Iowa RB3 #1820 #1729 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Big Ten

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Iowa Big Ten RB 3 No. 4 | 5-10 | 210 lb | Pompano Beach, FL
2024 Iowa Big Ten RB 3 No. 4 | 5-10 | 210 lb | Pompano Beach, FL
2023 Iowa Big Ten RB 3 No. 4 | 5-10 | 210 lb | Pompano Beach, FL
2022 Iowa Big Ten RB 3 No. 4 | 5-10 | 210 lb | Pompano Beach, FL