NC State at Stanford
NC State (3‑3) at Stanford (3‑4) — NC State is favored by 6.5. The model gives NC State a 64% shot. NC State’s offense is at the 59th percentile on efficiency; Stanford’s defense is at the 0th.
How they got here
Last three games
NC State · 3-3
Rated 44th in our preseason ratings, 63rd now, down 19 spots.
2-1 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Louisville as a 5.5-point underdog.
L 31-35 @ Vanderbilt #42 of 668
lost by 4 as a 3-point underdog
Last three games
Stanford · 3-4
Rated 97th in our preseason ratings, 133rd now, down 36 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 34-7 vs Elon #230 of 668
won by 27 as a 33.5-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: NC State’s EPA/play against Stanford, 59 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
NC State’s EPA/play against Stanford’s defense
NC State offense, 59th percentile · Stanford defense, 0th
NC State’s passing EPA against Stanford’s defense
NC State offense, 68th percentile · Stanford defense, 9th
What’s at stake
NC State
- NC State needs 3 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 85% to get there with a win here, 58% with a loss.
- NC State is still shaking off a 24-point loss.
Stanford
- Stanford needs 3 more wins in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility — 25% to get there with a win here, 5% with a loss.
- Stanford is coming off a 27-point win.
The series
NC State leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2024 · NC State won the last meeting
- 2024NC State 59-28
Each line is Stanford’s chance to win through that meeting.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
NC State
The chip · vs the national mediaFans are tired of being the forgotten school on Tobacco Road — the one nobody mentions when the cameras find Carolina blue and Duke's gym, even after producing more starting NFL quarterbacks than either of them.
What this game touches
The 2002 team that didn't break through. Philip Rivers' four-year run produced the most talented Wolfpack teams of the modern era and a string of bowl wins, but never an ACC title or a major-bowl breakthrough — the standing reminder that talent in Raleigh has rarely translated to a conference crown.
Stanford
The chip · vs the national mediaFans hear the same verdict on a loop — that the academic standard is now an anchor, that paying players broke the only model Stanford had, that the smart school can't survive a sport that stopped rewarding being smart. They think the obituary is premature.
What this game touches
The slide from Rose Bowls to the ACC basement. After Harbaugh and David Shaw made Stanford a Pac-12 power, the program collapsed into a half-decade of losing; in 2025 Troy Taylor was fired in March over staff-bullying allegations, GM Andrew Luck installed Frank Reich as a one-year interim, and the Cardinal went 4-8 before Luck handed the rebuild to ex-Stanford QB Tavita Pritchard.
Best players
NC State
- Raul Aguirre Jr. (LB) · 55 tackles
- CJ Bailey (QB) · 1,507 passing yards — Heisman odds: 61st (+25000)
- Keenan Jackson (WR) · 400 receiving yards
Stanford
- Jaivion Green (S) · 42 tackles
- Davis Warren (QB) · 1,630 passing yards
- Sam Mattingly (LB) · 39 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: CJ Bailey (QB) — NC State’s leading passer (1,507 passing yards) takes on Stanford’s pass defense (9th percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
Stanford fans are in a better mood than NC State fans (84th vs 68th among FBS fanbases), even with NC State favored.
NC State favored by 6.5 · Total 55.5
NC State by 6.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
NC State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Stanford Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 95 to 98
NC State at Stanford · Friday, Oct. 23 · 10:30 pm ET · Stanford Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Stanford Stadium: noon Saturdays score 96, 3:30 pm 95, 7:30 pm 98.
- noon: 96, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 98, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Stanford is worth +2.2 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 18th percentile.
33% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (15-30 home, 16-31 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 2,390 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Stanford
- Wk 3Lat Duke7-35
- Wk 4Wvs Georgia Tech34-27
- Wk 5Lat Wake Forest3-57
- Wk 6Lat Notre Dame7-58
- Wk 7Wvs Elon34-7
NC State
- Wk 2Wvs Richmond73-0
- Wk 3Lat Vanderbilt31-35
- Wk 4Wvs App State41-31
- Wk 5Wvs Louisville31-28
- Wk 6Lvs Wake Forest14-38
Power rating by week
NC State is rated 6.4 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Stanford.
Spread: +7.5 → +6.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.