Vanderbilt 35-31 NC State (Sep 19, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: NC State · Vanderbilt

NC State1-231

Vanderbilt3-035Final

Sat, Sep 19 · FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, Tenn. · Crowd 35,000

Vanderbilt beat NC State 35-31 after its win chance fell to 7%.

Winners have been down to 7% or less in about 1 of every 17 games since 2018.

We had Vanderbilt favored. It won.

Next: NC State beat App State 41-31, Sat Sep 26

Next: Vanderbilt lost to Auburn 21-15, Sat Sep 26

Top comment in the game thread

Why is the ref all the way across the field calling that when the other ref right there says no?

Q2 0:26 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Daniels 0-yd fumble return TD, Vanderbilt goes ahead 35-31 (Q4, 0:00). Vanderbilt went from 35% to 99% to win. Fans right then: “Jared Curtis is a freshman confirmed” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Vanderbilt a 57% chance, and the closing betting line (Vanderbilt was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.

Fumble return TD

Vanderbilt · Q4 0:00

Last play we haveVanderbilt 35-31 NC StatePlay-by-play ends earlyMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The four plays that swung it

1Q4 2:044th and 7Bailey incomplete to Locklear, turnover on downsVanderbilt 19% → 40% (+21)
2Q4 1:04InterceptionCurtis intercepted by Barnhardt at the NC State 2Vanderbilt 60% → 37% (−23)
3Q4 0:52Wilson 3-yd runVanderbilt 55% → 33% (−22)
4Q4 0:00Fumble4th and 7Daniels 0-yd fumble return TD, Vanderbilt goes ahead 35-31Vanderbilt 35% → 99% (+64)

The four plays that swung it

1Q4 2:044th and 7Bailey incomplete to Locklear, turnover on downsNC State 81% → 61% (−20)
2Q4 1:04InterceptionCurtis intercepted by Barnhardt at the NC State 2NC State 40% → 63% (+23)
3Q4 0:52Wilson 3-yd runNC State 45% → 67% (+22)
4Q4 0:00Fumble4th and 7Daniels 0-yd fumble return TD, Vanderbilt goes ahead 35-31NC State 65% → 1% (−64)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 0:26Officials rule defensive pass interference on an uncatchable pass to SherrillQuoted at the top of the page.Ref right next to it says uncatchable But dw ref across the field will throw the flag for DPI...r/CFB game thread
Q3 7:03Young 7-yd TD run, cuts it to 24-14wait ... did vandy just get a touchdown because he swatted the pylon with his other hand?r/CFB game thread
Q4 9:35Fans debate roughing the passer call on Bailey's touchdown pass to JacksonKeenan Jackson is the stud I was hoping to see Noah Rodgers ber/CFB game threadCardiac wolfpack spotted Vandy a couple scores to keep us all on our toes.r/CFB game thread
Q4 8:30NC State fans lament Curtis fumble and poor tackling as Vandy extends leadJared “Fake Slide” Curtis slinging it aroundr/CFB game thread
Q4 2:09NC State fans rip Doeren after Bailey's turnover on downsDoeren firing is back on the menu boysr/CFB game threadPlease. For the love of god. Fire Dave Doeren.r/CFB game thread
Q4 1:09Curtis throws an interception to Barnhardt with 1:09 leftJared Curtis is a freshman confirmedr/CFB game threadYeah, that's a freshman throw.r/CFB game thread

Vanderbilt’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Vanderbilt -3), at 66% for Vanderbilt (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Vanderbilt or NC State flair (198 and 655); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Vanderbilt’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Vanderbilt scored on 4 of its 11 drives; NC State on 5 of its 13.

Vanderbilt’s drives are teal, NC State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From NC State’s side

NC State’s best moment: Curtis intercepted by Barnhardt at the NC State 2 (Q4 1:04). It lifted NC State’s win chance by 23 points.

How NC State fans took it: “This was inevitable. I love this outcome. It is a gift to our program. Let's make changes now.” r/CFB game thread

“There is no way I just watched that”

A Vanderbilt fan

When fans got loud

Firestorm

Fans were loudest as the game came down to the end.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was firestorm; the crowd was busy.

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“Botched intentional safety into a game win g td would be comedy”

A fan of another team

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Vanderbilt fans

curtis“Curtis can sling. It’s just a shame Richardson and Vandy had a falling out.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: back, fire, take, sure.

The winner fell to 5%.

What it cost

Vanderbilt’s chance to make the playoff rose from 6% to 8%.

Make the playoff

NC State · lost2% → ▲3%

Vanderbilt · won6% → ▲8%

Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Vanderbilt 35, NC State 31

Vanderbilt covered −3 by 1. The total, 66, went over 50.5.

Team totals	NC State	Vanderbilt
Total yards	446	409
Passing	26 of 38, 280 yds	20 of 34, 277 yds
Rushing	41 for 166 yds	24 for 132 yds
First downs	25	20
Third down	7 of 16	5 of 12
Fourth down	3 of 5	2 of 2
Turnovers	3	3
Penalties	7 for 64 yds	13 for 116 yds
Time of possession	35:49	24:11

NC State leaders

Passing CJ Bailey 25 of 37, 275 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Jayden Scott 16 for 50 yds; Will Wilson 8 for 49 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Keenan Jackson 9 for 102 yds, 3 TD; Preston Douglas 4 for 50 yds

Vanderbilt leaders

Passing Jared Curtis 20 of 34, 277 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Jared Curtis 12 for 64 yds; Sedrick Alexander 7 for 53 yds
Receiving Junior Sherrill 6 for 108 yds, 2 TD; Tristen Brown 4 for 81 yds

No rain through the game

97° at kickoff · no rain recorded

Warmer than every one of the 66 other games played at FirstBank Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 74°, with about 7 in 10 games between 65° and 85°.

September game-day temperatures at FirstBank Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:00 left3:20 p.m.

NC State 31, Vanderbilt 35 · Vanderbilt 99% to win

no rain · 99°

Daniels 0-yd fumble return TD, Vanderbilt goes ahead 35-31

Measured at John C Tune airport, 5.1 miles away, and Nashville Metro airport, 6.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

NC State · 1-1

Rated 44th in our preseason ratings, 47th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 73-0 vs Richmond #166 of 668

won by 73 as a 33.5-point favorite

L 8-34 @ VirginiaTop 25 #54 of 668

lost by 26 as a 4-point underdog

Last two games

Vanderbilt · 2-0

Rated 45th in our preseason ratings, 44th now.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 35-26 vs Delaware #41 of 668

won by 9 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 28-9 vs Austin Peay #105 of 668

won by 19 as a 29.5-point favorite

Week by week

Vanderbilt

Wk 1Wvs Austin Peay28-9
Wk 2Wvs Delaware35-26

NC State

Wk 1Lat Virginia8-34
Wk 2Wvs Richmond73-0

Power rating by week

Vanderbilt is rated 0.3 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: NC State’s success rate against Vanderbilt, 42 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Vanderbilt’s passing EPA against NC State’s defense
Vanderbilt offense, 45th percentile · NC State defense, 8th
NC State’s success rate against Vanderbilt’s defense
NC State offense, 66th percentile · Vanderbilt defense, 24th
Vanderbilt’s explosive plays against NC State’s defense
Vanderbilt offense, 67th percentile · NC State defense, 29th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

NC StateVanderbilt

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Vanderbilt leads the series 2-1

3 meetings since 1946 · NC State won the last meeting

2016 · neutral siteNC State 41-17
2012 · neutral siteVanderbilt 38-24
1946Vanderbilt 7-0

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Vanderbilt fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (25th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Vanderbilt favored by 3 · Total 50.5

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward NC State.

The total fell 4 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 99° at kickoff.

NC State at Vanderbilt · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · FirstBank Stadium, Nashville

99°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
46weather score, Harsh
Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's eight kickoff times. At FirstBank Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 92, against 46 at 11:45 am.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

11 am: 45, Harsh
11:45 am: 46, Harsh (this game)
1 pm: 46, Harsh
2:30 pm: 47, Harsh
3:30 pm: 52, Rough
6 pm: 83, Mixed
6:30 pm: 91, Comfortable
7 pm: 92, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Vanderbilt is worth +1.1 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 7th percentile.

41% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (20-29 home, 10-33 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -7.0 at home vs. away over 100 games — outside the ±6.4 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 453 miles to get here.

The story going in

NC State names LB startersSep 16, 2026

Vanderbilt beats NC State 35-31