Next game: vs Duke
Duke’s best edge on NC State is passing
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
NC State offense against Duke defense
Duke offense against NC State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.34 EPA/play | 11 | 8 | 156 / 244 | 63.9 | 1955 #24 FBS | 8.0 | 13 #41 FBS | 4 | 145.5 | 59 | 66.2 | 7.7 | 4.3 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — 244 pass attempts, 63 carries and 1 catch in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Bailey operates within the system without forcing anything. Angeli is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Yards / attempt8.2 63th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate1.6% 71th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View CJ Bailey's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.46 EPA/play | 10 | 8 | 9 / 12 | 75 | 35 | 2.9 | 2 | 0 | 154.5 | — | 80.1 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · +0.10 EPA/play | 1 | 5 | 62 | 358 | 5.8 | 4 | 65 | 23.7 | 10.2 | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. 62 carries and 3 catches in 5 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Scott just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Miller is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Weight220 lb 86th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share4.6% bottom 14th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Jayden Scott's full player page | ||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.05 EPA/play | 7 | 7 | 87 | 352 | 4.0 | 2 | 28 | 12.0 | 8.4 | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Starter — 87 carries and 21 catches in 7 games, more touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Gause just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Miller is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Weight217 lb 80th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share19.4% 95th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Davion Gause's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.75 EPA/play | 8 | 7 | 30 | 456 | 15.2 | 6 #23 FBS | 54 | |
Yards by week → Jump-ball targetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. 30 catches in 7 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Jackson wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Hatcher is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt TD rate20.0% 95th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.7 80th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Keenan Jackson's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.70 EPA/play | 19 | 8 | 26 | 304 | 11.7 | 1 | 43 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Starter — 26 catches in 8 games, about as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. This week's matchup — TE Douglas shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Bacheyie is the one who creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Season receipt Yards / reception10.7 bottom 47th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume26 86th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Preston Douglas's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.60 EPA/play | 2 | 5 | 16 | 221 | 13.8 | 0 | 46 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Trader moves the chains on third down. Hatcher is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception14.4 60th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Joshisa Trader's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.21 EPA/play | — | 8 | 19 | 175 | 9.2 | 0 | 36 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Snow moves the chains on third down. Hatcher is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception10.0 bottom 17th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Victor Snow's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.67 EPA/play | 82 | 6 | 12 | 168 | 14 | 2 | 38 | |
Yards by week → Deep threat· Money-downStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. lives on the sticks and moves the chains This week's matchup — WR Robinson beats you over the top. Hatcher is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception18.8 93th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume12 bottom 13th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chance Robinson's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.10 EPA/play | 13 | 5 | 8 | 119 | 14.9 | 1 | 34 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Red-Zone Weapon · +0.88 EPA/play | 86 | 7 | 9 | 79 | 8.8 | 2 | 24 | |
Yards by week → Red-zone weaponThe first read called near the goal line — size and catch radius do the rest. This week's matchup — TE Provience is the first read once you cross the 20. Bacheyie is the one who creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Season receipt TD rate22.2% 92th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Yards / reception3.7 bottom 3th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Hunter Provience's full player page | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 88 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Isaiah Shirley's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 55 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight335 lb 97th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Katron Evans's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 90 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight316 lb 87th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Josiah Victor's full player page | |||||||
| Pressure Merchant | 92 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 |
Pressure merchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. 22 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.4 99th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Chase Bond's full player page | |||||||
| 13 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | |
| 99 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 47 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | — | 8 | 77 | 35 | 42 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — 77 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume77 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Raul Aguirre Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 5 | 8 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.4% 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate15.8% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Harvey Dyson III's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 58 | 8 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate29.4% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate23.5% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Elijah Satchell's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 33 | 5 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.8% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume17 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ziggy Moore's full player page | |||||||||
| 35 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 42 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 44 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 31 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perimeter Tackler | 7 | 8 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Perimeter tacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. 35 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Brian Nelson II's full player pageTackle volume35 95th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 8 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 33 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.1% 57th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ronnie Royal III's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 22 | 8 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 28 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Jackson Vick's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.8% bottom 35th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View King Mack's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 29 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Brody Barnhardt's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 14 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 2 #51 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jaren Sensabaugh's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Tristan Teasdell's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 24 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ball hawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate27.3% 90th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Michael Tate's full player page | |||||||
| 10 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 7 | 8/9 | 88.9 | 31/31 | 55 | 46 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 96 | 8 | 32 | 1369 | 42.8 | 60 | 12 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 7 | 6 | 120 | 20 | 0 | 32 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.21 EPA/play | — | 8 | 14 | 133 | 9.5 | 0 | 33 |
Biggest plays from NC State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in NC State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 0:00 · Vanderbilt down 3, takes the leadCayden Daniels recovers a fumble in the end zone for a touchdownNC State at Vanderbilt, week 3Q4, 0:00 · Vanderbilt 35, NC State 310:00Go-ahead fumble return touchdown for Vanderbilt with 0:00 left0:00Go-ahead fumble return touchdown for Vanderbilt with 0:00 leftGo-ahead fumble return touchdown for Vanderbilt with 0:00 leftCayden Daniels 0 yd Fumble Return (Brock Taylor Kick)▶Watch from this play
Q4, 12:27 · Louisville down 7, ties itIsaac Brown runs 70 yards for a touchdownLouisville at NC State, week 5Q4, 12:27 · Louisville 28, NC State 287070-yard touchdown run7070-yard touchdown run70-yard touchdown runI.Brown rush middle for 70 yards gain to the NCSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q1, 2:12 · NC State down 14CJ Bailey finds Deandre Desinor for a 58-yard touchdownNC State at Stanford, week 8Q1, 2:12 · NC State 7, Stanford 145858-yard touchdown pass5858-yard touchdown pass58-yard touchdown passC.Bailey pass complete deep left to D.Desinor caught at STAN31, for 58 yards to the STAN00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q4, 1:04 · Vanderbilt down 3Brody Barnhardt intercepts Jared CurtisNC State at Vanderbilt, week 3Q4, 1:04 · Vanderbilt 28, NC State 31▼23%Vanderbilt’s chance to win, 60% to 37%▼23%Vanderbilt’s chance to win, 60% to 37%J.Curtis pass intercepted by B.Barnhardt at NCS02, End Of Play▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 8:05 · Louisville down 13Lincoln Kienholz finds Tre Richardson for a 38-yard touchdownLouisville at NC State, week 5Q3, 8:05 · Louisville 14, NC State 20Tre Richardson's first 100-yard receiving game of 2026Tre Richardson's first 100-yard receiving game of 2026L.Kienholz pass complete short right to T.Richardson caught at NCSU35, for 38 yards to the NCSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q1, 3:40 · Stanford up 7Davis Warren finds Sedrick Irvin for a 17-yard touchdownNC State at Stanford, week 8Q1, 3:40 · Stanford 14, NC State 0▲16%Stanford’s chance to win, 68% to 84%▲16%Stanford’s chance to win, 68% to 84%D.Warren pass complete short left to S.Irvin caught at NCSU00, for 17 yards to the NCSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
NC State lost at Vanderbilt after being 96% to win; the closest win was against App State, down to 40%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave NC State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · NC State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · NC StateRaul Aguirre Jr. leads NC State with 77 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+12 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
NC State fields a strong methodical, ball-control offense behind a leaky defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
NC State reads strongest in red-zone finish (top 15%) and passing EPA (top 25%); the crux lives in passing EPA allowed, where NC State sits at the 12th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
NC State is worth +6.4 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 87th percentile of 133 programs
75% at home, 40% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (40-13 home, 17-25 away). Interval ±3.4.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, NC State has beaten the number by 5.9 points more at home than away over 102 games. That is outside the ±5.2 that many games can resolve, so this is one of the few buildings where the results say something the flat number does not.
Carter-Finley Stadium seats 58,000 and has averaged 98% full (56,708, 32 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 253 miles trip since 2018, the 17th-shortest of 135 FBS venues. Whatever the band above is picking up, it isn't the flight. 18% of the 2026 roster (22 of 123 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 60 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downTerrell Anderson is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- UnderdogTerrell Anderson produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
- Deep threatNoah Rogers is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatWesley Grimes is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Keenan Jackson (WR) and Preston Douglas (TE) split the targets (40/73 vs 33/73) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How NC State actually scores
69th percentile quality, 28th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
NC State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 24th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 41st — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does NC State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
62nd percentile success on standard downs, 77th on passing downs — a 15-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
NC State by half
1st-half offense ranks 79th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 65th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of NC State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.20; 63rd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.31 raw vs. 0.06 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How NC State’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), NC State’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.3% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 220-play sample) — mid-pack, 90 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), NC State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.1% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 192-play sample) — mid-pack, 113 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
14% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~52% league baseline.
1 of 7 own fumbles recovered themselves; 5 of 11 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
12% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~18% league average, and due for more.
4 interceptions of 34 disrupted passes (30 deflected, 4 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
43 penalties committed, 51 drawn on opponents — netting a 71-yard field-position edge.
388 penalty yards committed vs. 459 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · NC State
Most similar programs · NC StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 55°, between 45° and 69° in about 7 in 10 games (32 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 61°, and 8 in 10 ran between 41° and 81° (45 of 49 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.