CFB Zeitgeist Score
67
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by yards / catch at the 99th percentile.
Davion Dozier
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
448 REC YDS · 20 REC · 5 REC TD
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to NC State
2025App State
2026NC State
WR · APP STATE · SUN BELT
Davion Dozier
- 2
- #1
- 6-4 | 205 lb
- Moody, AL
Heisman Heat
#2313
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2023–2025+3100%
Up 3100% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4-star | 0.8975 | No. 361 recruit | HighSchool | Arkansas |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | App State -> NC State | 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate |
| 2025 | Arkansas -> App State | 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Arkansas
Composite
0.8975
#361 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Davion Dozier
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=4
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Davion Dozier
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per reception
22.4
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
Best by a App State WR since Christian Wells 2021.
National rank #4 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 99th
Why it matters
#4 of 531 All FBS WRs at 22.4 yards per reception (20 catches).
Vs cohort
This player 22.4 (99th)
MODERATE · n=20 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving TDs#98 / 531
- Receiving yards (total)#259 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 6 vs Oregon State — 140 ypr
Result W 27-23
The week the volume broke through — put up 140 yds vs Oregon State.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 8g
448Rec yards
20Receptions
5Rec TDs
Per game
56Rec yards
2Receptions
1Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
728Rec yards
32Receptions
8Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 448): needs 50.4/game over remaining 5.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 448): needs 110.4/game over remaining 5.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 20): needs 8/game over remaining 5.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 20): needs 12/game over remaining 5.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 5): needs 0.6/game over remaining 5.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 5): needs 1/game over remaining 5.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Davion Dozier's story is about how role and output meet each other. For App State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Big-play receiver against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
20 63rd
YDS
448 77th
YPR
22.4 96th
TD
5 91st
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 8 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | W 27-23vs Oregon State | 4 | 140 | 35.0 | 1 | 68 | Season-high 140 yds |
| Wk 7 | W 41-20@ Georgia State | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 1 | 18 | |
| Wk 8 | L 37-45vs Coastal Carolina | 4 | 70 | 17.5 | 1 | 35 | |
| Wk 9 | L 21-24@ Old Dominion | 4 | 75 | 18.8 | 1 | 34 | |
| Wk 11 | L 23-25vs Georgia Southern | 3 | 62 | 20.7 | 0 | 36 | |
| Wk 12 | L 10-58@ James Madison | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 | 19 | |
| Wk 13 | W 26-24vs Marshall | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 | 21 | |
| Wk 14 | L 29-30vs Arkansas State | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 | 31 | |
| Total | 20 | 448 | 22.2 | 5 | 68 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Arkansas4-8HC: Sam Pittman · Run-leaning
2024Arkansas7-6HC: Sam Pittman · Run-leaning
2025App State5-8HC: Dowell Loggains · Pass-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 20 | #417/1110 | 63rd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 448 | #257/1107 | 77th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 5 | #96/1111 | 91st pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 22.4 | #46/1106 | 96th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 13.2% | #311/1137 | 73rd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 68 | #109/1105 | 90th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 14.7% | #54/1137 | 95th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 13.7% | #77/1137 | 93rd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 9.8% | #125/1137 | 89th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 7.3% | #254/1137 | 78th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 3.4% | #618/1137 | 46th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 1.9% | #898/1137 | 21st pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #391/1137 | 66th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 8 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home5g | 2.6 | 64.8 | 25.0 | 0.4 |
| Road3g | 2.3 | 41.3 | 17.6 | 1.0 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins3g | 2.3 | 63.7 | 23.7 | 0.7 |
| Losses5g | 2.6 | 51.4 | 21.4 | 0.6 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-72g | 3.0 | 85.0 | 25.0 | 1.0 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 2.3 | 46.3 | 21.3 | 0.5 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
67Solid starter
Elite: yards / catch (99th). Strength: long catch (81st). Concern: receptions (23rd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Davion DozierApp StateHarrison Wallace IIIOle Miss· 63% simChris Brazzell IITennessee· 63% simAnthony SmithEast Carolina· 63% sim
Yards / catch
Long catch
Rec TDs
Rec yards
Receptions
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Deep Threat
Stretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Dont'E Thornton’s 2024 season.
Dont'E Thornton
74%match
#2
Matt Landers
71%
#3
Trea Shropshire
66%
#4
Brad Rozner
65%
#5
Dalton Stroman
64%
Matches Dont'E on
Height
TD rate
Weight
Differs from Dont'E on
Class year (lower)
Through 1 college season, his career arc tracks closest to Quin Smith’s path through Air Force.
Quin Smith
68%match
#2
Chris Lewis
67%
#3
Dont'E Thornton
66%
#4
D'Wayne Eskridge
All-MACNFL Rd 2 · Pk 24
63%
#5
Deondre Johnson
63%
Matches Quin on
Weight
Yards per reception
Differs from Quin on
Height (higher)
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Nyck Harbor's junior season at South Carolina (2025).
Nyck Harbor
60%match
#2
Carl Chester
53%
#3
John Stephens
52%
#4
Reed Harris
50%
#5
Jackson Harris
All-Mountain West
50%
Matches Nyck on
Height
Differs from Nyck on
Class year (lower)
Recruiting rating (lower)
Weight (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Dowell Loggains
Pass share
55.6%
508 pass / 405 run
Plays / game
70.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.7%
389 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Pass-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
2 coaches2023
Shawn Clark
App State
2024
Shawn Clark
App State
2025era →
Dowell Loggains
App State
Coaching transition mid-career: Shawn Clark → Dowell Loggains. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownMoody, AL
Height6'4"
Weight205 lb
Class2
PositionWR
Jersey1
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamApp State
ConferenceSun Belt
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.