The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Jim McElwain

Followed John Bonamego. Jim McElwain held Central Michigan at Regional Program III for 6 seasons.

Peak, then fade
77–64
2012–2024 · 3 stints
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Blue Blood in his 4th career season — faster than 43% of the 100 FBS coaches who have ever reached Blue Blood (rank #52 of 100 by seasons-to-arrival).

Colorado State, 3 seasons
+7.0
Regional Program IV → Regional Program II.
Florida, 3 seasons
−7.1
Blue Blood → Power Program I.
Central Michigan, 6 seasons
+0.7
Regional Program III → Regional Program IV.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Colorado State2012–2014– 0.0ptFlorida2015–2017– 0.4ptCentral Michigan2019–2024▼ 7.2pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Florida3.7pt#239 of 258 · less than most
Central Michigan7.4pt#182 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

12–10 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Chuck Martin.

Rivalry record
12–10
54.5% · 6 rivals
One-score games
28–15
65.1% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–3
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Colorado2–167%
Wyoming2–167%
Georgia2–0100%
The toughest matchup
vs. Chuck Martin0–3
3 meetings, 2019–2024
’19 L · blew a 4-pt lead’21 L · blew a 3-pt lead’24 L · blew a 4-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–3 0.0%
Blue Blood
0–3 0.0%
Power Program
7–12 36.8%
National Program
6–7 46.2%
Regional Program
50–33 60.2%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.10
#199 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
+0.38
#23 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2019–2024
Central Michigancaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program III
Jim McElwain held Central Michigan at Regional Program III for 6 seasons.

7th-best Central Michigan tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+5.3 pts
#87 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+13.3 pts
#56 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed John Bonamego (2015–2018) · succeeded by Matt Drinkall (2025–2026).

Season201920202021202220232024Trend
Record & result
Record8–63–39–44–85–74–8
PostseasonL bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#104#123#86#84#91#106
Style — pass rate
Pass rate47.540.046.346.741.640.3
Coordinators
OCCharlie FryeCharlie FryeKevin BarbayPaul PetrinoPaul PetrinoJim Chapin
DCRobb AkeyRobb AkeyRobb AkeyRobb AkeyRobb AkeyRobb Akey
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense634456284221
Defense64647058846
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%46.739.643.539.241.136.7
Red-zone pass%34.127.039.344.438.833.3
4th-down go%opp. territory46.545.235.752.340.648.6
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
13
2.8★ avg rating
Portal departures
62
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-49
#177 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 218 lbs
across 9 of 13 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+9.5 lbs
#22 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#117 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: MI (5), GA (2), WA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
36.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
52.4
position-weighted
Net
-15.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Joe Labas (QB) from Iowa
Biggest loss: Jase Bauer (QB) to Sam Houston
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Charlie Frye → Kevin Barbay · 2021
44th pct56th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 39.6% → 43.5% (+3.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 77% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Kevin Barbay → Paul Petrino · 2022
56th pct28th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 43.5% → 39.2% (-4.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 67% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Paul Petrino → Jim Chapin · 2024
42nd pct21st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 41.1% → 36.7% (-4.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 52% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
215 lbs
6′1″ avg · #315 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
213 lbs
5′10″ avg · #167 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
196 lbs
6′1″ avg · #260 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
246 lbs
6′3″ avg · #325 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
298 lbs
6′5″ avg · #727 of 779 · less than most
D-line
274 lbs
6′3″ avg · #584 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
232 lbs
6′1″ avg · #217 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
193 lbs
6′0″ avg · #227 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Linebacker from high school
80%
#170 of 225 stints
Postseason detail2019: Lost to San Diego State 11–48 New Mexico Bowl2021: Beat Washington State 24–21 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

6 NFL Draft picks: Sean Bunting (2019), Xavier Crawford (2019), Luke Goedeke (2022), Bernhard Raimann (2022), Lew Nichols III (2023), Donte Kent (2025)

33–36
2015–2017
Floridainheritor
Blue Blood → Blue Blood
Jim McElwain inherited a Blue Blood Florida and won with it.

5th-best Florida tenure of 22 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-37.4 pts
#207 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
+20.8 pts
#29 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Will Muschamp (2011–2014) · succeeded by Dan Mullen (2018–2021).

Season201520162017Trend
Record & result
Record10–49–41–3
PostseasonL bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#21#12#11
Style — pass rate
Pass rate44.347.643.8
Coordinators
OCDoug NussmeierDoug NussmeierDoug Nussmeier
DCGeoff Collins / Randy ShannonGeoff Collins / Randy ShannonRandy Shannon / Chris Rumph
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense25843
Defense899960
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%47.347.141.3
Red-zone pass%43.042.233.3
4th-down go%opp. territory32.523.129.4
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2015: Lost to Michigan 7–41 Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl2016: Beat Iowa 30–3 Outback Bowl

28 NFL Draft picks: Dante Fowler Jr. (2015), D.J. Humphries (2015), Chaz Green (2015), Matt Jones (2015), Max Garcia (2015), Neiron Ball (2015), Andre Debose (2015), Trent Brown (2015) + 20 more

22–12
2012–2014
Colorado Statecaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program II
Jim McElwain moved Colorado State from Regional Program IV to Regional Program II in 3 seasons.

7th-best Colorado State tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Followed Steve Fairchild (2008–2011) · succeeded by Mike Bobo (2015–2019).

Season201220132014Trend
Record & result
Record4–88–610–2
PostseasonL bowl
Recruiting rank#86
Style — pass rate
Pass rate50.7
Coordinators
OCDave Baldwin
DCMarty English / Al Simmons
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense89
Defense20
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%45.2
Red-zone pass%35.5
4th-down go%opp. territory25.9
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Utah 10–45 Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl

4 NFL Draft picks: Weston Richburg (2014), Crockett Gillmore (2014), Ty Sambrailo (2015), Garrett Grayson (2015)

22–16