UCF at Pittsburgh
Fan take
UCF fans
Pittsburgh fans
How they got here
Last three games · 2025 season
UCF · 5-7
Picked #103 in the preseason · now #116 — worse than expected.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 21–41 @ BYUTop 25 #17 of 668
lost by 20 as a 17.5-point underdog
W 17–14 vs Oklahoma State #164 of 668
won by 3 as a 12.5-point favorite
L 9–48 @ Texas TechTop 25 #4 of 668
lost by 39 as a 24-point underdog
L 27–30 vs HoustonTop 25 #58 of 668
lost by 3 as a 1-point favorite
L 3–30 @ Baylor #29 of 668
lost by 27 as a 3-point underdog
W 45–13 vs West Virginia #128 of 668
won by 32 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 11–20 @ CincinnatiTop 25 #50 of 668
lost by 9 as a 10.5-point underdog
L 20–27 vs Kansas #45 of 668
lost by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 20–34 @ Kansas StateTop 25 #45 of 668
lost by 14 as a 6-point underdog
W 34–9 vs North Carolina #130 of 668
won by 25 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 68–7 vs North Carolina A&T #248 of 668
won by 61 as a 37-point favorite
W 17–10 vs Jacksonville State #56 of 668
won by 7 as a 20.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Pittsburgh · 8-5
Picked #48 in the preseason · now #46 — about right.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 14-point win over Georgia Tech as a 2.5-point underdog.
L 17–23 @ East Carolina #39 of 668
lost by 6 as a 6-point favorite
L 7–38 vs MiamiTop 25 #6 of 668
lost by 31 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 42–28 @ Georgia TechTop 25 #50 of 668
won by 14 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 15–37 vs Notre DameTop 25 #2 of 668
lost by 22 as a 13-point underdog
W 35–20 @ Stanford #130 of 668
won by 15 as a 13.5-point favorite
W 53–34 vs NC State #39 of 668
won by 19 as a 5-point favorite
W 30–13 @ Syracuse #90 of 668
won by 17 as a 8.5-point favorite
W 34–31 @ Florida StateTop 25 #56 of 668
won by 3 as a 11.5-point underdog
W 48–7 vs Boston College #82 of 668
won by 41 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 27–34 vs LouisvilleTop 25 #27 of 668
lost by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 24–31 @ West Virginia #83 of 668
lost by 7 as a 7-point favorite
W 45–17 vs Central Michigan #103 of 668
won by 28 as a 21.5-point favorite
W 61–9 vs Duquesne #114 of 668
won by 52 as a 39-point favorite
What’s at stake
UCF
- A win puts UCF a step closer to a 1% shot at the CFP field.
- UCF hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2023.
Pittsburgh
- Pittsburgh sits at 3% to make the CFP field — 3% with a win here, 2% with a loss.
- Pittsburgh is the program with nine national titles in football history and a 2021 ACC championship that reminded the country it's still here.
The series
Pittsburgh leads the series 3-1
4 meetings since 2006 · Pittsburgh has won the last 2
- 2026Pittsburgh 12–7
- 2019Pittsburgh 35–34
- 2018UCF 45–14
- 2006Pittsburgh 52–7
Best players
UCF
- Lewis Carter (LB) · 15 tackles
- Tackett Curtis (LB) · 13 tackles
- Alonza Barnett (QB) · 344 passing yards — Heisman odds: 95th (+15000)
Pittsburgh
- Mason Heintschel (QB) · 665 passing yards — Heisman odds: 53rd (+17000)
- Cataurus Hicks (WR) · 178 receiving yards
- Cruce Brookins (DB) · 9 tackles
The line, and the room
Pittsburgh fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (31st percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
Home −7.5 · O/U 55.5
Conditions
79°F · 7 mph wind · Light Rain
Pittsburgh is worth +2.3 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 21st percentile.
62% at home, 51% on the road against FBS opponents (30–18 home, 21–20 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.0 at home vs. away over 73 games — inside the ±7.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 821 miles to get here.
UCF 7 – Pittsburgh 12
Called it — picked Pittsburgh to win.
Recent games
Pittsburgh
- Wk 1Wvs Miami (OH)59-14
UCF
- Wk 1Wvs Bethune-Cookman73-6
Trajectory
Pittsburgh won 12-7, as picked pregame.