UCF UCF 1-1 7 PITT Pittsburgh 2-0 12 Final Pittsburgh beat UCF 12-7. Share this game
We had Pittsburgh favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
That missed pick 6 is going to haunt us
Q2 7:24 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 12 How it swung Watch the plays Drives What it cost Box score Weather Before kickoff How it swung The turning point: Barnett 19-yd TD pass to Charles (Q4, 2:51). Pittsburgh went from 98% to 82% to win. Fans right then: “This would be absolute sicko if this game had a UCF comeback in the downpour, limited camera angles, to win it 14-12” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Pittsburgh a 76% chance, and the closing betting line (Pittsburgh was a 7.5-point favorite) put it at 73%.
Safety Q2 7:24
Last play we have Pittsburgh 12-7 UCF Play-by-play ends early Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. At the airport: 0.3 in of rain Last play we have UCF 7-12 Pittsburgh Play-by-play ends early Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. At the airport: 0.3 in of rain 50% 75% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 94% at half Pittsburgh High 99% Plays end 1 +10 Scores Safety Pittsburgh UCF Pittsburgh fans: 1 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 2 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 2 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 1 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 1 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 1 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 1 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 0 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 0 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 1 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 0 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 0 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 1 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 0 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 1 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 2 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 1 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 2 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 0 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 2 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 4 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 2 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 2 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 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See it from UCF’s side The play that swung it
1 Q2 4:19 Watson 1-yd run Pittsburgh 78% → 88% (+10) The play that swung it
1 Q2 4:19 Watson 1-yd run UCF 22% → 12% (−10) What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q2 7:24 Quoted at the top of the page. He got hit while he was throwing though? r/CFB game thread Q3 0:45 UCF fans lament Barnett's incomplete passes and porous offensive line I hate how UCF has become a high school football team. No hope in sight r/CFB game thread UCF’s O line is… porous r/CFB game thread Q4 4:43 Fans mock the broadcast's poor camera angles and lighting issues This would be absolute sicko if this game had a UCF comeback in the downpour, limited camera angles, to win it 14-12 r/CFB game thread wtf is this ghetto ass camera angle? r/CFB game thread Q4 1:31 UCF fans mock the offense after Jenkins is sacked for a turnover on downs Beat the spread and know the truth about the offense. r/CFB game thread I think that play entirely sums up how UCF's offense played this game. r/CFB game thread Pittsburgh’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chart Starts from the pregame line (Pittsburgh -7.5), at 72% for Pittsburgh (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Pittsburgh or UCF flair (245 and 544); both sides share one scale, regulation only. The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. 0.4 in of rain by radar over the stadium; the airport 8.1 miles away recorded 0.3 in; another 0.2 in fell before the late kickoff, heaviest in the first quarter. Measured at Pittsburgh/alleghen airport, 8.1 miles away. Full conditions below. Kickoff came 1 hour 6 minutes late. Thunder was reported at Pittsburgh/alleghen airport (8.1 miles away) from 3:31 p.m. to 4:28 p.m., around the delay. Watch the plays The bar and the arrow show Pittsburgh’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
Play all in order Q2, 0:28 Ferguson 13-yd TD run Pittsburgh leads 12-0 Q2, 0:28 · Pittsburgh 12, UCF 0 ▲8% Pittsburgh’s chance to win, 86% to 94% ▲8% Pittsburgh’s chance to win, 86% to 94% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q4, 2:51 Barnett 19-yd TD pass to Charles Q4, 2:51 · Pittsburgh 12, UCF 7 ▼16% Pittsburgh’s chance to win, 98% to 82% ▼16% Pittsburgh’s chance to win, 98% to 82% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive Pittsburgh scored on 2 of its 12 drives; UCF on 1 of its 12.
Pittsburgh’s drives are teal, UCF’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
own goal goal line Q1 Pittsburgh: Turned over on downs, from 92 yards out to 46 Downs UCF: Punt, from 54 yards out to 43 Punt Pittsburgh: Punt, from 86 yards out to 84 Punt UCF: Punt, from 67 yards out to 59 Punt Pittsburgh: Field goal, from 93 yards out to 10 Field goal UCF: Punt, from 83 yards out to 57 Punt Q2 Pittsburgh: Punt, from 87 yards out to 50 Punt UCF: Safety, from 93 yards out to 100 Safety Pittsburgh: Punt, from 64 yards out to 44 Punt UCF: Punt, from 97 yards out to 90 Punt Pittsburgh: Touchdown, from 44 yards out to 0 Touchdown UCF: End of half, from 75 yards out to 76 End of half Q3 UCF: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 50 Downs Pittsburgh: Punt, from 50 yards out to 56 Punt UCF: Turned over on downs, from 71 yards out to 37 Downs Pittsburgh: Punt, from 63 yards out to 40 Punt UCF: Punt, from 80 yards out to 87 Punt Pittsburgh: Punt, from 63 yards out to 45 Punt Q4 UCF: Punt, from 73 yards out to 61 Punt Pittsburgh: Punt, from 80 yards out to 71 Punt UCF: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0 Touchdown Pittsburgh: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66 Punt UCF: Turned over on downs, from 78 yards out to 74 Downs Pittsburgh: End of game, from 26 yards out to 30 End of game “That Bethune Cookman game really fooled me” A UCF fan When fans got loud Busy
It came down to the finish, and so did the noise.
Jump to the loudest stretch
The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.
First Second Third Fourth Pittsburgh fans UCF fans usual Two crowds, one game The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Pittsburgh fans
narduzzi “Defense is designed to stop the run and it’s doing its job. There’s like two teams that have ever run on Narduzzi in decades at this point.”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: run, half, back, now.
What it cost Pittsburgh’s chance to make the playoff fell from 4% to 3%.
Make the playoff
UCF · lost 1% → 1%
Pittsburgh · won 4% → ▼ 3%
Win the conference
UCF · lost 1% → 1%
Pittsburgh · won 3% → ▼ 2%
Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score Pittsburgh 12, UCF 7
UCF covered +7.5 by 2.5. The total, 19, stayed under 55.5.
UCF Pittsburgh Total yards UCF 206 Pittsburgh 315 206 315 Passing yards UCF 186 Pittsburgh 212 186 212 Rushing yards UCF 20 Pittsburgh 103 20 103 First downs UCF 9 Pittsburgh 15 9 15 Turnovers UCF 0 Pittsburgh 0 0 0 Time of possession UCF 23:48 Pittsburgh 36:12 23:48 36:12 Team totals UCF Pittsburgh Total yards 206 315 Passing 20 of 31, 186 yds 18 of 29, 212 yds Rushing 22 for 20 yds 43 for 103 yds First downs 9 15 Third down 4 of 13 5 of 18 Fourth down 0 of 3 2 of 3 Turnovers 0 0 Penalties 9 for 50 yds 8 for 64 yds Time of possession 23:48 36:12
UCF leaders Passing Alonza Barnett 20 of 31, 186 yds, 1 TDRushing Alonza Barnett 13 for 13 yds; Duke Watson 6 for 10 ydsReceiving Ric'Darious Farmer 4 for 52 yds; Waden Charles 4 for 41 yds, 1 TDPittsburgh leaders Passing Mason Heintschel 18 of 29, 212 ydsRushing Damon Ferguson Jr. 20 for 59 yds, 1 TD; La'Vell Wright 13 for 35 ydsReceiving Cataurus Hicks 3 for 64 yds; La'Vell Wright 2 for 28 ydsKickoff came 1 hour 6 minutes late 70° at kickoff · 0.4 in of rain by radar over the stadium; the airport 8.1 miles away recorded 0.3 in; another 0.2 in fell before the late kickoff
Thunder was reported at Pittsburgh/alleghen airport (8.1 miles away) from 3:31 p.m. to 4:28 p.m., around the delay.
In the game thread, fans talked about the rain.
September game-day temperatures at Acrisure Stadium
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Pittsburgh favored UCF favored 80% Win chance Pittsburgh Rain inches per 10 min 0.1 in Wind mph, average and gusts 20 mph 40 mph Hourly wind only at this airport Thunder reported Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Pittsburgh favored UCF favored Rain · inches per 10 min 0.1 in Wind · miles per hour 20 40 Hourly wind only at this airport Thunder reported Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Fourth quarter, 2:51 left7:32 p.m.
UCF 7, Pittsburgh 12 · Pittsburgh 82% to win
70°
Barnett 19-yd TD pass to Charles
Previous play Next play
Jump to Rain begins · first Biggest swing: 16 points of win chance · fourth Where this weather comes from Measured at Pittsburgh/alleghen airport, 8.1 miles away, and Pittsburgh International airport, 12 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Matchups Biggest mismatch: UCF’s explosive plays against Pittsburgh, 74 points Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
UCF’s explosive plays against Pittsburgh’s defense
74 points weaker stronger 50th UCF offense, 79th percentile · Pittsburgh defense, 5th
UCF’s success rate against Pittsburgh’s defense
62 points weaker stronger 50th UCF offense, 36th percentile · Pittsburgh defense, 98th
UCF’s rushing EPA against Pittsburgh’s defense
61 points weaker stronger 50th UCF offense, 39th percentile · Pittsburgh defense, 100th
Season profile, all the rows Season profile UCF Pittsburgh
EPA/play, offense
UCF · 42 Pittsburgh · 53 EPA/play, defense
UCF · 75 Pittsburgh · 87 Success rate, offense
UCF · 36 Pittsburgh · 64 Success rate, defense
UCF · 55 Pittsburgh · 98 Explosive-play rate, offense
UCF · 79 Pittsburgh · 21 Explosive-play rate, defense
UCF · 82 Pittsburgh · 5 Rush EPA, offense
UCF · 39 Pittsburgh · 40 Rush EPA, defense
UCF · 84 Pittsburgh · 100 Pass EPA, offense
UCF · 34 Pittsburgh · 58 Pass EPA, defense
UCF · 56 Pittsburgh · 45 The series Pittsburgh leads the series 2-1
3 meetings since 2006 · Pittsburgh won the last meeting
2019 Pittsburgh 35-34 Pittsburgh won 35-34 vs UCF. Chance to win started at 26%, low 6%, high better than 99%. 2018 UCF 45-14 Pittsburgh lost 14-45 at UCF. Chance to win started at 45%, low under 1%, high 59%. 2006 Pittsburgh 52-7 Each line is Pittsburgh’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field The betting line, and the fans Pittsburgh fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (20th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
50-50 Model 76% · Line 73% Pittsburgh fans · 20th UCF fans · 18th UCF Pittsburgh Pittsburgh favored by 7.5 · Total 55.5
The market The spread moved 1 point toward UCF.
opened −8.5 now −7.5 The total rose 4 points.
opened 51.5 now 55.5 Spread: −8.5 → −7.5 · Total: 51.5 → 55.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff Warm, with rain. Feels like 74° at kickoff.
UCF at Pittsburgh · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
74°feels like at kickoff 0.19 in rain at kickoff 61weather score, Rough Roughest of the day's 7 kickoff times At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the roughest of the day's seven kickoff times. At Acrisure Stadium that day, a 7 pm or 7:30 pm kickoff would have scored 87, against 61 at 3:30 pm.
The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.
Rough
Mixed
Comfortable
Ideal (100) 65 Rough 68 Rough 69 Rough 61 Rough 76 Mixed 87 Mixed 87 Mixed
noon 1 pm 2 pm 3:30 pm 6 pm 7 pm 7:30 pm
noon: 65, Rough 1 pm: 68, Rough 2 pm: 69, Rough 3:30 pm: 61, Rough (this game) 6 pm: 76, Mixed 7 pm: 87, Mixed 7:30 pm: 87, Mixed Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field Pittsburgh is worth +2.4 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 20th percentile.
62% at home, 51% on the road against FBS opponents (31-19 home, 22-21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why ); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.3 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 821 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages