Austin Peay beats West Florida 38-16

Team pages: Austin Peay · West Florida

Austin Peay3-138
West Florida2-116Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Pen-Air Field, Pensacola, Fla. · Crowd 5,712ESPN+

Austin Peay beat West Florida 38-16.

We had Austin Peay favored. It won.

Next: Austin Peay beat UT Martin 35-12, Sat Sep 26

Next: West Florida beat Southeast Missouri State 20-17, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Austin Peay a 65% chance, and the closing betting line (Austin Peay was a 10.5-point favorite) put it at 80%.

Favored the whole way: Austin Peay never fell below 67%.

West Florida never had better than a 32% chance.

FinalAustin Peay 38-16 West FloridaAustin Peay wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q496% at halfAustin PeayWon38-161+12Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q496% at halfAustin PeayWon38-161Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q44% at halfAustin PeayLowest 0%Lost16-381−12Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q44% at halfAustin PeayLowest 0%Lost16-381Scores

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 10:28Parson 61-yd TD pass to Robinson, Austin Peay goes ahead 7-0Austin Peay 74% → 86% (+12)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 10:28Parson 61-yd TD pass to Robinson, Austin Peay goes ahead 7-0West Florida 26% → 14% (−12)
Austin Peay’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Austin Peay -10.5), at 70% for Austin Peay (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Austin Peay scored on 5 of its 11 drives; West Florida on 3 of its 13.

Austin Peay’s drives are teal, West Florida’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Austin Peay: Punt, from 68 yards out to 70PuntWest Florida: Punt, from 82 yards out to 77PuntAustin Peay: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownWest Florida: Interception, from 75 yards out to 76InterceptionAustin Peay: Touchdown, from 54 yards out to 0TouchdownWest Florida: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntAustin Peay: Punt, from 62 yards out to 39PuntWest Florida: Punt, from 96 yards out to 96PuntAustin Peay: Touchdown, from 50 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2West Florida: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownAustin Peay: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 36DownsWest Florida: Punt, from 62 yards out to 62PuntAustin Peay: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownWest Florida: Fumble, from 80 yards out to 30FumbleAustin Peay: Turned over on downs, from 57 yards out to 81DownsWest Florida: Field goal, from 19 yards out to 1Field goalQ3West Florida: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownAustin Peay: Punt, from 86 yards out to 71PuntWest Florida: Turned over on downs, from 67 yards out to 28DownsQ4Austin Peay: Field goal, from 72 yards out to 19Field goalWest Florida: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 75 yards out to 44Interception TDWest Florida: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 72DownsAustin Peay: Turned over on downs, from 28 yards out to 10DownsWest Florida: End of game, from 90 yards out to 85End of game

Box score

Austin Peay 38, West Florida 16

Austin Peay covered −10.5 by 11.5. The total, 54, stayed under 55.5.

Austin Peay leaders

  • Passing Chris Parson 7 of 16, 149 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Courtland Simmons 17 for 78 yds, 1 TD; Chris Parson 14 for 59 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Jaden Robinson 2 for 108 yds, 1 TD; Marvin Sims 2 for 40 yds

West Florida leaders

  • Passing Ty'ray Davis 8 of 14, 118 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Markel Townsend 9 for 93 yds; Preston Godfrey 6 for 28 yds
  • Receiving Tyshon Mansell 1 for 48 yds; Markel Townsend 3 for 42 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Austin Peay · 2-1

Rated 118th in our preseason ratings, 113th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 63-7 vs Morehead State #242 of 668

won by 56 as a 36.5-point favorite

Austin Peay won 63-7 vs Morehead State. Chance to win started at 99%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

L 9-28 @ Vanderbilt #44 of 668

lost by 19 as a 29.5-point underdog

Austin Peay lost 9-28 at Vanderbilt. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 7%.

W 35-17 vs Gardner-Webb #204 of 668

won by 18 as a 14.5-point favorite

Austin Peay won 35-17 vs Gardner-Webb. Chance to win started at 87%, low 81%, high better than 99%.

Last two games

West Florida · 2-0

Rated 267th in our preseason ratings, 261st now.

Two straight wins, capped by a 28-point win over Central Arkansas as a 7.5-point underdog.

W 42-14 @ Central Arkansas #177 of 668

won by 28 as a 7.5-point underdog

West Florida won 42-14 at Central Arkansas. Chance to win started at 23%, low 23%, high better than 99%.

W 34-31 vs Southern Illinois #147 of 668

won by 3 as a 19.5-point underdog

West Florida won 34-31 vs Southern Illinois. Chance to win started at 13%, low 9%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

West Florida

Wk 1: W 34-31 vs Southern Illinois▲3Southern IllinoisWk 1: W 42-14 at Central Arkansas▲28Central Arkansas
  • Wk 1Wvs Southern Illinois34-31
  • Wk 1Wat Central Arkansas42-14

Austin Peay

Wk 1: W 35-17 vs Gardner-Webb▲18Gardner-WebbWk 1: L 9-28 at Vanderbilt▼19VanderbiltWk 2: W 63-7 vs Morehead State▲56Morehead State
  • Wk 1Wvs Gardner-Webb35-17
  • Wk 1Lat Vanderbilt9-28
  • Wk 2Wvs Morehead State63-7

Power rating by week

Austin Peay is rated 8.5 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-2-9-17Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2West FloridaAustin Peay

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on West Florida’s chances here.

50-50Model · 35%Line · 20%Austin PeayWest Florida

Austin Peay favored by 10.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Austin Peay by 10.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward Austin Peay.

opened +6.5now +10.5

Spread: +6.5 → +10.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.