Abilene Christian at Tarleton State
Tarleton State (9‑0) hosts Abilene Christian (5‑4). Too early for a market line, but the model likes Tarleton State (73%).
How they got here
Last three games
Abilene Christian · 5-4
Rated 112th in our preseason ratings, 130th now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
L 17-34 vs Mercer No. 161 of 668 teams
lost by 17 as a 3.5-point favorite
Last three games
Tarleton State · 9-0
Rated 95th in our preseason ratings, 83rd now, up 12 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 28-24 vs Eastern Kentucky No. 200 of 668 teams
won by 4 as a 24.5-point favorite
W 49-6 @ West Georgia No. 246 of 668 teams
won by 43 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 49-35 vs Central Arkansas No. 195 of 668 teams
won by 14 as a 19.5-point favorite
W 56-21 vs Chicago State No. 260 of 668 teams
won by 35 as a 50.5-point favorite
W 45-20 vs Merrimack No. 203 of 668 teams
won by 25 as a 32.5-point favorite
W 27-24 @ McNeese No. 211 of 668 teams
won by 3 as a 19.5-point favorite
W 49-30 vs Prairie View A&M No. 109 of 668 teams
won by 19 as a 19.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Abilene Christian
- Abilene Christian controls first place in UAC with 2 games left.
- Abilene Christian is coming off a 59-point win.
Tarleton State
- Tarleton State controls first place in UAC with 2 games left.
- Tarleton State is the Texas program that climbed from Division II to FCS and won a UAC championship in its first eligible year.
The series
Abilene Christian leads the series 4-2
6 meetings since 2013 · Abilene Christian has won the last 2
- 2025Abilene Christian 31-28
- 2024Abilene Christian 35-31
- 2023Tarleton State 31-30
- 2022Abilene Christian 28-23
- 2021Abilene Christian 29-3
Home field
Tarleton State is worth +1.9 points (±9.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 16th percentile.
0% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (0-2 home, 2-3 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.9 at home vs. away over 52 games — inside the ±7.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 89 miles to get here.
Week by week
Tarleton State
- Wk 5Wvs Chicago State56-21
- Wk 6Wat Austin Peay40-32
- Wk 7Wvs Central Arkansas49-35
- Wk 8Wat West Georgia49-6
- Wk 9Wvs Eastern Kentucky28-24
Abilene Christian
- Wk 4Lvs Mercer17-34
- Wk 5Wvs West Florida35-7
- Wk 6Wvs Central Arkansas20-14
- Wk 7Wat North Alabama31-28
- Wk 9Wvs West Georgia59-0
Power rating by week
Tarleton State is rated 3.0 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Tarleton State1st4-0
- Abilene Christian2nd4-0