Abilene Christian beats Central Arkansas 20-14

Team pages: Central Arkansas · Abilene Christian

Central Arkansas2-414
Abilene Christian3-420Final
Sat, Oct 10 · Wildcat Stadium (TX), Abilene, Texas · Crowd 7,466ESPN+

Abilene Christian beat Central Arkansas 20-14.

We had Abilene Christian favored. It won.

Next: Central Arkansas lost to Tarleton State 49-35, Sat Oct 17

Next: Abilene Christian beat North Alabama 31-28, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Abilene Christian an 81% chance, and the closing betting line (Abilene Christian was a 10-point favorite) put it at 79%.

Favored the whole way: Abilene Christian never fell below 77%.

Central Arkansas never had better than a 23% chance.

FinalAbilene Christian 20-14 Central ArkansasAbilene Christian wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Abilene ChristianWon20-141+11Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Abilene ChristianWon20-141Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Abilene ChristianLost14-201−11Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Abilene ChristianLost14-201Scores

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 0:31InterceptionPenaltyOmolo intercepted by Miller at the ACU30, returned 29 yards, unnecessary roughness on UcaAbilene Christian 79% → 90% (+11)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 0:31InterceptionPenaltyOmolo intercepted by Miller at the ACU30, returned 29 yards, unnecessary roughness on UcaCentral Arkansas 21% → 10% (−11)
Abilene Christian’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Abilene Christian -10), at 82% for Abilene Christian (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Abilene Christian scored on 4 of its 8 drives; Central Arkansas on 2 of its 7.

Abilene Christian’s drives are teal, Central Arkansas’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Abilene Christian: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 9Field goalCentral Arkansas: Interception, from 75 yards out to 35InterceptionAbilene Christian: Touchdown, from 26 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Central Arkansas: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 25Missed FGAbilene Christian: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Arkansas: Punt, from 75 yards out to 50PuntAbilene Christian: End of half, from 81 yards out to 79End of halfQ3Central Arkansas: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownAbilene Christian: Punt, from 80 yards out to 58PuntCentral Arkansas: Punt, from 82 yards out to 74PuntAbilene Christian: Field goal, from 78 yards out to 17Field goalCentral Arkansas: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 10FumbleQ4Abilene Christian: Punt, from 90 yards out to 96PuntCentral Arkansas: Touchdown, from 46 yards out to 0TouchdownAbilene Christian: End of game, from 75 yards out to 18End of game

Box score

Abilene Christian 20, Central Arkansas 14

Central Arkansas covered +10 by 4. The total, 34, stayed under 51.5.

Central Arkansas leaders

  • Passing Donovyn Omolo 8 of 16, 83 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Jalen Washington 12 for 105 yds, 1 TD; Donovyn Omolo 14 for 79 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Ty Durham 2 for 32 yds; Kealen Juniel 1 for 30 yds

Abilene Christian leaders

  • Passing Tucker Parks 19 of 26, 186 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Tucker Parks 17 for 45 yds, 1 TD; Rovaughn Banks Jr. 15 for 44 yds
  • Receiving Jayden York 7 for 72 yds; Luke Moffitt 4 for 42 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Central Arkansas · 2-3

Rated 180th in our preseason ratings, 211th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 7-34 @ Florida State #86 of 668

lost by 27 as a 45.5-point underdog

Central Arkansas lost 7-34 at Florida State. Never had a real chance.

L 9-27 @ Southeast Missouri State #199 of 668

lost by 18 as a 4-point underdog

Central Arkansas lost 9-27 at Southeast Missouri State. Chance to win started at 15%, low under 1%, high 36%.

W 59-20 vs Central Oklahoma #329 of 668

Central Arkansas won 59-20 vs Central Oklahoma. Chance to win started at 54%, low 47%, high better than 99%.

L 14-42 vs West Florida #262 of 668

lost by 28 as a 7.5-point favorite

Central Arkansas lost 14-42 vs West Florida. Chance to win started at 77%, low under 1%, high 77%.

W 36-24 @ UT Martin #155 of 668

won by 12 as a 3-point underdog

Central Arkansas won 36-24 at UT Martin. Chance to win started at 33%, low 22%, high 98%.

Last three games

Abilene Christian · 2-4

Rated 112th in our preseason ratings, 146th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 35-7 vs West Florida #244 of 668

won by 28 as a 7-point favorite

Abilene Christian won 35-7 vs West Florida. Chance to win started at 76%, low 64%, high better than 99%.

L 17-34 vs Mercer #161 of 668

lost by 17 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 41-39 @ Idaho #175 of 668

won by 2 as a 1.5-point favorite

Abilene Christian won 41-39 at Idaho. Chance to win started at 46%, low 26%, high 99%.

L 7-26 vs Stephen F. Austin #99 of 668

lost by 19 as a 3-point underdog

Abilene Christian lost 7-26 vs Stephen F. Austin. Chance to win started at 47%, low under 1%, high 74%.

L 10-33 @ Texas TechTop 25 #7 of 668

lost by 23 as a 45.5-point underdog

Abilene Christian lost 10-33 at Texas Tech. Never had a real chance.

L 14-21 @ Lamar #143 of 668

lost by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite

Abilene Christian lost 14-21 at Lamar. Chance to win started at 58%, low under 1%, high 72%.

Week by week

Abilene Christian

Wk 1: L 10-33 at Texas Tech▼23T. TechWk 2: L 7-26 vs Stephen F. Austin▼19Stephen…Wk 3: W 41-39 at Idaho▲2IdahoWk 4: L 17-34 vs Mercer▼17MercerWk 5: W 35-7 vs West Florida▲28W. Flori…
  • Wk 1Lat Texas Tech10-33
  • Wk 2Lvs Stephen F. Austin7-26
  • Wk 3Wat Idaho41-39
  • Wk 4Lvs Mercer17-34
  • Wk 5Wvs West Florida35-7

Central Arkansas

Wk 1: W 36-24 at UT Martin▲12UT MartinWk 1: L 14-42 vs West Florida▼28W. Flori…Wk 2: W 59-20 vs Central Oklahoma▲39C. Oklah…Wk 3: L 9-27 at Southeast Missouri State▼18Southeas…Wk 4: L 7-34 at Florida State▼27F. St.
  • Wk 1Wat UT Martin36-24
  • Wk 1Lvs West Florida14-42
  • Wk 2Wvs Central Oklahoma59-20
  • Wk 3Lat Southeast Missouri State9-27
  • Wk 4Lat Florida State7-34

Power rating by week

Abilene Christian is rated 4.0 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-3-6-10Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5Abilene ChristianCentral Arkansas

The series

Central Arkansas leads the series 6-3

9 meetings since 2014 · Abilene Christian has won the last 2

Abilene Christian wonCentral Arkansas won2014: Abilene Christian by 172016: Central Arkansas by 312017: Central Arkansas by 342018: Central Arkansas by 92019: Central Arkansas by 12021: Central Arkansas by 212023: Central Arkansas by 352024: Abilene Christian by 72025: Abilene Christian by 2120142025
  • 2025Abilene Christian 49-28
  • 2024Abilene Christian 41-34
  • 2023Central Arkansas 52-17
  • 2021Central Arkansas 42-21
  • 2019Central Arkansas 31-30

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Abilene Christian’s chances here.

50-50Model 81% · Line 79%Central ArkansasAbilene Christian

Abilene Christian favored by 10 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Abilene Christian by 10, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Abilene Christian.

opened −9.5now −10

Spread: −9.5 → −10

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Abilene Christian has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — −0.2 points (±5.6), home against road — 1st percentile of FBS.

0% at home, 11% on the road against FBS opponents (0-2 home, 2-16 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.6 at home vs. away over 56 games — inside the ±7.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 454 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.