Georgia State is near the bottom of the model. The math is the story.
- Win total 4.5 — line up since open
- Georgia State enters 2025 at No
Georgia and Florida State set for 2028 game in Nashville
How will Georgia and Florida State prepare for their 2028 matchup?
Read the full story →How past storylines turned out
Georgia State's defensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season.
See who's next →Georgia State's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Georgia State's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
How it developed newest first
Jun 10
Georgia State signed a top-48 transfer-portal class — 33 additions headlined by Ayden Pereira (QB) from Merrimack and Donovan Faria (CB) from Gannon.
why it mattersMcGee's top-14 portal class jumps 33 spots nationally after a 1-11 season, diagnosing offensive line as the core problem with Smith Jr. and Mascoll arriving to fix it. ~ our read
Georgia State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
why it mattersGeorgia State, under Dell McGee's third season, seeks to revive its 2010 founding identity after a 1-11 losing record that contrasts sharply with its historic Atlanta-FBS-newcomer-football legacy. ~ our read
Georgia State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
why it mattersDell McGee begins his second season at Georgia State with a 1-11 losing record to overcome, as the program's identity hinges on redefining what Atlanta-FBS-newcomer-football can achieve. ~ our read
Georgia State: the fanbase's identity shifting.
why it mattersDell McGee begins his second season at Georgia State with a 1-11 losing record, raising questions about whether the program's identity as an Atlanta-FBS-newcomer-football standard-bearer can be redefined. ~ our read
Georgia State enters 2025 rated No. 133 in SP+ (-24.5), down 10 spots from 2024.
why it mattersGeorgia State enters 2025 at No. 133 in SP+ — the 10-spot drop under McGee raises one question: Can talent rank #77 offset the losing record's momentum? ~ our read
Watch next
The non-obvious thing to track
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
~ our read
Rooms tap to switch
The 'the projection is underselling us' read — fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter — efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Only 2 of 8 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
The range the bull case vs the counter
“Georgia State commit Jordan Booker transferring to Venice (Fla.)”
“One Big Question For UCF Football Opponents: Georgia State”