Next game: at App State
Georgia State’s best edge on App State is passing
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Georgia State offense against App State defense
App State offense against Georgia State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.31 EPA/play | 8 | 7 | 110 / 166 | 66.3 | 1356 | 8.2 | 14 #32 FBS | 5 | 156.7 | 56 | 64.7 | 8.0 | 3.5 | |
Yards by week → Scrambler· Money-downMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. saves his best for the money downs Starter — 166 pass attempts, 40 carries and 1 catch in 7 games, fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. This week's matchup — QB Brown extends plays on the move until something opens up. Johnson is the one who picks you apart underneath and protects the ball. Season receipt Rush usage19.4% bottom 42th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry4.4 84th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cameran Brown's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.02 EPA/play | 2 | 7 | 41 / 73 | 56.2 | 463 | 6.3 | 4 | 3 | 119.3 | 31 | 44.2 | 5.1 | 3.9 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.03 EPA/play | 24 | 8 | 65 | 446 | 6.9 | 3 | 78 | 17.2 | 14.1 | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. 65 carries and 13 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Wiggins wins in space out of the backfield. Mbadinga is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Receiving share16.7% 86th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry7.1 95th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Qwantavius Wiggins's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.04 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 84 | 403 | 4.8 | 4 | 30 | 16.9 | 13.3 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 84 carries and 6 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Lanear McCrary Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.30 EPA/play | — | 6 | 43 | 252 | 5.9 | 2 | 20 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. 43 carries and 11 catches in 6 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Jr. wins in space out of the backfield. Mbadinga is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Receiving share20.4% 96th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception14.1 99th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dennis Murray Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.85 EPA/play | 9 | 8 | 28 | 459 | 16.4 | 8 #9 FBS | 50 | |
Yards by week → Jump-ball targetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. 28 catches in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Dorsey wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Ware is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt TD rate28.6% 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 88th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Rodshaun Dorsey's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.74 EPA/play | 10 | 8 | 29 | 292 | 10.1 | 2 | 37 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 29 catches and 1 pass attempt in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View DJ Riles's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.29 EPA/play | 13 | 6 | 13 | 210 | 16.2 | 1 | 80 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine This week's matchup — WR Jr. moves the chains on third down. Ware is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception8.7 bottom 9th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume13 bottom 15th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Derrick Avery Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · -0.10 EPA/play | 85 | 6 | 14 | 201 | 14.4 | 1 | 44 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 14 catches in 6 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. This week's matchup — TE Hollier shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Helms is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception11.6 57th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.1 bottom 5th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Grant Hollier's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.16 EPA/play | 4 | 5 | 10 | 130 | 13 | 0 | 45 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.60 EPA/play | 17 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 10.2 | 1 | 29 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 52 | 8 | 17 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate11.8% bottom 39th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Alex Mullings's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 7 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 1.5 | 3 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Mandjou Berte's full player page | |||||||
| Finisher | 1 | 7 | 15 | 10 | 6.5 | 5 #38 FBS | 0 |
FinisherTurns pressure into sacks — when he gets there, he finishes. 10 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Pressure-to-sack conversion1.0 100th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | — | 6 | 11 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 82th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jonah Reeder's full player page | |||||||
| 92 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | |
| 95 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 34 | 8 | 49 | 29 | 20 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 49 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 85th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume49 74th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaydon Hood's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 20 | 8 | 44 | 24 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 44 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume44 64th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate15.9% 86th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Coby Owens's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 4 | 8 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 9.5 #23 FBS | 7 #7 FBS | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate43.2% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate31.8% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Xavier Esquillien's full player page | |||||||||
| 28 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 45 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 13 | 8 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 35 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume35 62th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Donovan Faria's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 15 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 32 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume32 52th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Tre Mittman's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 32 | 8 | 29 | 9 #4 FBS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ball hawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 29 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate31.0% 95th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tyson McCrary's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 8 | 6 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Deuce Lee's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 16 | 7 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Keenan Nelson Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 24 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate21.4% 77th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Malique Harrell's full player page | |||||||
| 7 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cover Corner | 12 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Darius Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 11 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Toby Bolton's full player page | |||||||
| 21 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 22 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 39 | 8 | 11/13 | 84.6 | 27/27 | 60 | 49 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 6 | 15 | 653 | 43.5 | 59 | 6 | 0 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.60 EPA/play | 17 | 8 | 10 | 297 | 29.7 | 1 | 100 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.74 EPA/play | 10 | 8 | 5 | 54 | 10.8 | 0 | 26 |
Biggest plays from Georgia State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Georgia State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q2, 3:06 · Arkansas State breaks the tieTrey Owens runs 2 yards for a touchdownGeorgia State at Arkansas State, week 8Q2, 3:06 · Arkansas State 14, Georgia State 7Arkansas State took the lead in the second quarterArkansas State took the lead in the second quarterT.Owens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the GSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Sun Belt Conference
Q2, 12:08 · Georgia State breaks the tieGeorgia State scores a touchdownNorthern Illinois at Georgia State, week 4Q2, 12:08 · Georgia State 21, Northern Illinois 14100Kickoff return touchdown100Kickoff return touchdownKickoff return touchdownR.Short kickoff 65 yards to the GSU00 I.Stone return 100 yards to the NIU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play Sun Belt Conference- Q3, 10:45 · Arkansas State breaks the tieTrey Owens finds Nazeviah Burris for a 54-yard touchdownGeorgia State at Arkansas State, week 8Q3, 10:45 · Arkansas State 21, Georgia State 145454-yard touchdown pass5454-yard touchdown pass54-yard touchdown passT.Owens pass complete deep right to N.Burris caught at GSU12, for 54 yards to the GSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play Sun Belt Conference
Q2, 12:21 · Northern Illinois down 7, ties itTaron Dickens finds DeAree Rogers for a 22-yard touchdownNorthern Illinois at Georgia State, week 4Q2, 12:21 · Northern Illinois 14, Georgia State 14Northern Illinois tied the game in the second quarterNorthern Illinois tied the game in the second quarterT.Dickens pass complete short left to D.Rogers caught at GSU18, for 22 yards to the GSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play Sun Belt Conference
Q3, 14:42 · UCF down 4, takes the leadDuke Watson runs 63 yards for a touchdownGeorgia State at UCF, week 3Q3, 14:42 · UCF 27, Georgia State 24Duke Watson reaches 1,000 career rushing yardsDuke Watson reaches 1,000 career rushing yardsD.Watson rush left for 63 yards gain to the GSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 7:39 · Georgia State down 7, ties itCameran Brown finds DJ Riles for a 3-yard touchdownGeorgia State at Arkansas State, week 8Q2, 7:39 · Georgia State 7, Arkansas State 7Georgia State tied the game in the second quarterGeorgia State tied the game in the second quarterC.Brown pass complete short left to D.Riles caught at ASU01, for 3 yards to the ASU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play Sun Belt Conference
How scary each game got
Georgia State lost to Coastal Carolina after being 69% to win; the closest win was at Kennesaw State, down to 38%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Georgia State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Georgia State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Georgia StateJaydon Hood leads Georgia State with 49 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+17 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Georgia State fields a strong offense behind a solid defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Georgia State reads strongest in passing EPA (top 15%) and success rate (top 28%); the crux lives in rushing EPA allowed, where Georgia State sits at the 41st percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Georgia State is worth +3.9 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 45th percentile of 133 programs
43% at home, 28% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (20-26 home, 14-36 away). Interval ±3.9.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Georgia State has beaten the number by −3.1 more at home than away over 100 games. That is inside the ±6.4 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Center Parc Stadium seats 25,000 and has averaged 62% full (15,499, 26 games reported). Visitors cover a median 309 miles to get here since 2018 — 40th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 55% of the 2026 roster (61 of 111 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 51 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Deep threatTed Hurst is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Lanear McCrary Jr. and Qwantavius Wiggins split the carries (82/145 vs 63/145) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Qwantavius Wiggins owns the receiving work.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Rodshaun Dorsey (WR) and Grant Hollier (TE) split the targets (39/66 vs 27/66) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Rodshaun Dorsey is the one trusted on 3rd down.
See it develop week by week
3rd-down target share, week by week (weeks both players actually played the role)
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Georgia State actually scores
77th percentile quality, 36th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Georgia State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 16th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 10th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Georgia State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
68th percentile success on standard downs, 66th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Georgia State by half
1st-half offense ranks 93rd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 20th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Georgia State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.20; 66th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.06. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.51 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Georgia State’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.2% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 207-play sample) — mid-pack, 89 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Georgia State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.2% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 185-play sample) — mid-pack, 42 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 0% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~52% league rate.
0 of 5 own fumbles recovered themselves; 5 of 10 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Getting hands on the ball but not cashing in: 13% of disruptions converted, vs. the ~18% league rate.
4 interceptions of 30 disrupted passes (26 deflected, 4 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Losing the penalty battle: 54 penalties committed vs. 45 drawn on opponents, a 57-yard deficit.
495 penalty yards committed vs. 438 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Georgia State
Most similar programs · Georgia StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Usual during the game around Nov 14: 59°, between 51° and 68° in about 7 in 10 games (25 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 67°, and 8 in 10 ran between 47° and 81° (55 of 58 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.