CFB Zeitgeist Score
63
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 77th percentile.
Toby Payne
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
387 REC YDS · 36 REC · 3 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to Marshall for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Tight end · Marshall
Returning around him
- 100% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
- Transfer portal: +5 net (27 in / 22 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Marshall · Last season: 5-7 · Talent rank #89 · 2026 recruiting class #120
TE · MARSHALL · SUN BELT
Toby Payne
- 3
- #81
- 6-4 | 232 lb
- Poca, WV
Heisman Heat
#1092
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP TE AWARD
Mackey
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
3 seasons on the ladder
2022
Marshall · TE
—
2024
Marshall · TE
—
★
2025
Marshall · TE
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2022–2025+1333%
Up 1333% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★
CFB
College
Marshall
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8556 | No. 1109 recruit | HighSchool |
| 2021 | 2-star | 0.7967 | No. 2485 recruit | HighSchool | Marshall |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in receiving yards (387).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8556
#1109 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Toby Payne
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Toby Payne
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Receiving TDs
3
count
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #222 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 58th
Why it matters
#222 of 531 All FBS WRs in receiving TDs — 3 TDs on 36 receptions.
Vs cohort
This player 3 (58th)
HIGH · n=36 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Yards per reception#374 / 531
- Receiving yards (total)#312 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 4 at Middle Tennessee — 2 receiving_tds
Result W 42-28
The week the volume broke through — stacked 2 td at Middle Tennessee.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 11g
387Rec yards
36Receptions
3Rec TDs
Per game
35.2Rec yards
3Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
457.4Rec yards
43Receptions
4Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 387): needs 156.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 387): needs 306.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 36): needs 12/game over remaining 2.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 36): needs 22/game over remaining 2.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 3): needs 2.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 3): needs 3.5/game over remaining 2.
Why the honors trail matters
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Toby Payne already has 1 loaded recognition item, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
TE season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Target magnet against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
36 94th
YDS
387 92nd
YPR
10.8 62nd
TD
3 91st
Rushing
CAR
1 51st
TD
0 69th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 2 | L 20-21vs Missouri State | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 | 26 | |
| Wk 3 | W 38-7vs Eastern Kentucky | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 | 18 | |
| Wk 4 | W 42-28@ Middle Tennessee | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 2 | 20 | 2 TD catches |
| Wk 5 | L 51-54@ Louisiana | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | 14 | |
| Wk 7 | W 48-24vs Old Dominion | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 | 21 | |
| Wk 8 | W 40-37vs Texas State | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 0 | 16 | |
| Wk 10 | L 27-44@ Coastal Carolina | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 11 | L 23-35vs James Madison | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 12 | W 30-18@ Georgia State | 5 | 110 | 22.0 | 1 | 48 | Season-high 110 yds |
| Wk 13 | L 24-26@ App State | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 14 | L 19-24vs Georgia Southern | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Total | 36 | 387 | 10.4 | 3 | 48 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Marshall9-4HC: Charles Huff · Run-heavy
2024Marshall10-3HC: Charles Huff · Run-leaning
2025Marshall5-7HC: Tony Gibson · Run-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The tight end's share of the passing offense, which helps distinguish a featured receiving tight end from a secondary option.
A blended usage view that shows how often the offense flows through the tight end compared with other same-level peers.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 36 | #29/475 | 94th pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 387 | #40/475 | 92nd pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 3 | #45/475 | 91st pct | Scoringvs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 10.8 | #181/475 | 62nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Pass share | 11.5% | #60/468 | 87th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS TE |
| Rushing | Carries | 1 | #30/59 | 51st pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #20/62 | 69th pct | Scoringvs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 48 | #44/475 | 91st pct | Metricvs FBS TE |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 5.6% | #78/468 | 84th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 5.3% | #55/468 | 88th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 5.0% | #79/468 | 83rd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Role share | 4.8% | #93/468 | 80th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS TE |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 3.5% | #232/468 | 51st pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 2.6% | #263/468 | 44th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.2% | #54/468 | 89th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS TE |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Mackey award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 3.0 | 26.3 | 9.3 | 0.0 |
| Road5g | 3.6 | 45.8 | 11.6 | 0.6 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 3.6 | 50.2 | 14.2 | 0.6 |
| Losses6g | 3.0 | 22.7 | 7.1 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 3.0 | 33.4 | 12.1 | 0.4 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 3.5 | 36.7 | 8.9 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the TE cohort
63Solid starter
Elite: receptions (82nd). Concern: rush yards (12th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · TE · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Toby PayneMarshallMason MiniCalifornia· 94% simJack EndriesTexas· 93% simNoah MeyersWestern Kentucky· 92% sim
Receptions
Long catch
Rec yards
Rec TDs
Yards / catch
Rush TDs
Rush yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Complete TE
Dual-threat: blocks when needed, catches when needed. Coveted on both sides.
TE
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jyrin Johnson’s 2025 season.
Jyrin Johnson
80%match
All-MAC
#2
Seydou Traore
NFL Rd 5
77%
#3
Xavier Gaines
All-Conference USA
72%
#4
Boden Groen
75%
#5
Jack Endries
NFL Rd 7
75%
Matches Jyrin on
Weight
TD rate
EPA / play (adj)
Differs from Jyrin on
Class year (lower)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Desirrio Riles's junior season at East Carolina (2025).
Desirrio Riles
83%match
#2
Max Klare
All-Big TenNFL Rd 2 · Pk 29
78%
#3
Blake Whiteheart
77%
#4
Jaheim Bell
All-ACCNFL Rd 7
76%
#5
Luke Lindenmeyer
75%
Matches Desirrio on
TD rate
Weight
Yards / reception
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Tony Gibson
Pass share
40.4%
335 pass / 495 run
Plays / game
69.2
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.0%
244 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
2 coaches2022
Charles Huff
Marshall
2024
Charles Huff
Marshall
2025era →
Tony Gibson
Marshall
Coaching transition mid-career: Charles Huff → Tony Gibson. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownPoca, WV
Height6'4"
Weight232 lb
Class3
PositionTE
Jersey81
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMarshall
ConferenceSun Belt
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-Sun Belt
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-Sun Belt | all_conference | Marshall | Sun Belt | TE |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.