Next game
at Monmouth (IL)
Sat Oct 24 · 2 pm ET
April Zorn Memorial Stadium · series 0-4, lost the last 4
University of Chicago 29% to win · our ratings after 6 games
University of Chicago
5-1Midwest · Amos Alonzo Stagg Field · 3,500 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 20-14 vs Illinois College
Our model gave University of Chicago 75% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Lake Forest 18%, Monmouth (IL) 29%
Win out 5% · expect 2.3 of 4 more wins
University of Chicago's chance to win each game left, from our model: Monmouth (IL) 29%, Ripon 90%, Lawrence 97%, Lake Forest 18%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Monmouth (IL) · our model 29% University of Chicago
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
University of Chicago · 2026 schedule and results5-1Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 35%.Our rank entering each game: #519 to #516
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #519 | #545 | — | @Trine | L 34-48 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 3 | Sep 19 | #527 | #616 | — | Nebraska Wesleyan | W 49-41 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #535 | #643 | — | @Knox | W 48-0 | 2-1 | 1-0 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #520 | #665 | — | @Beloit | W 10-0 | 3-1 | 2-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #525 | #601 | — | Cornell (IA) | W 49-10 | 4-1 | 3-0 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #516 | #548 | — | Illinois College | W 20-14 | 5-1 | 4-0 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #519 | #487 | @Monmouth (IL) | 2 pm ET29% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #520 | #602 | Ripon | 2 pm ET90% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Lawrence | 2 pm ET97% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Lake Forest | 2 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for University of Chicago, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for University of Chicago: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
University of Chicago has won five straight.
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last five.
Streak W5Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 7-3
Range of outcomes · University of Chicago · 2026
Range of outcomes · University of Chicago · 2026University of Chicago’s most likely regular season is 7-3. 88% of outcomes land from 7-3 to 8-2.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 7%; 7 wins 55%; 8 wins 33%; 9 wins 5%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor8-4Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base10-2Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling11-1Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-1
Game feel54even gamescombined pts / game4th highest-scoring of 11 in the Midwest
Heart rate2-0white-knucklein one-score games (2 of 6)2nd most one-score games of 11 in the Midwest
Margin+16.2comfortableavg scoring margin3rd best margin of 11 in the Midwest
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Midwest teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind·Written June 2026
The birthplace of American football coaching revived from a 61-year silence — Amos Alonzo Stagg's intellectual ghost reclaiming the Midway.
Title DroughtSince 1940 · 86 yrs
Fans here believe chicago had every claim to be a football blue blood, it invented coaching itself, then walked away and let others own the game. The wound is self-inflicted, and the return is…
Game day
The experience
The birthplace of American football coaching revived from a 61-year silence — Amos Alonzo Stagg's intellectual ghost reclaiming the Midway.
Playoff path
University of Chicago sits 2nd in the Midwest Conference and 61st of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — on the at-large bubble — the conference title is the surer route.
Midwest · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lake Forest | 6-0 | 7-0 | 67.1 |
| 2 | Chicago | 4-0 | 5-1 | 59.4 |
| 3 | Monmouth (IL) | 4-0 | 4-2 | 55.9 |
| 4 | Luther | 4-2 | 4-3 | 50.6 |
| 5 | Grinnell | 3-2 | 4-3 | 47.0 |
| 6 | Cornell (IA) | 3-3 | 3-4 | 44.3 |
| 7 | Illinois College | 2-3 | 3-4 | 46.2 |
| 8 | Ripon | 1-3 | 1-5 | 38.1 |
59.4 CFB Zeitgeist#61 of 245 D343.9 strength of schedule
Win the Midwest Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 5-1
Signature win 48-0 over Knox; toughest day 34-48 against Trine.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site