Next game
vs Pacific (OR)
Sat Oct 24 · 4 pm ET
McCulloch Stadium · series 1-5
Willamette 57% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Willamette
1-5Northwest · McCulloch Stadium · 7,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 17-42 vs Puget Sound
Our model gave Willamette 41% before kickoff
The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Linfield <1%
Win out <1% · expect 0.6 of 4 more wins
Willamette's chance to win each game left, from our model: Pacific (OR) 57%, George Fox 4%, Whitworth 3%, Linfield <1%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Pacific (OR) · our model 57% Willamette
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Willamette · 2026 schedule and results1-5Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 48%.Our rank entering each game: #661 to #646
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #661 | #535 | — | @Pomona Pitzer | L 23-42 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #660 | #539 | — | @Pacific (OR) | W 6-3 | 1-1 | 1-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #655 | #617 | — | La Verne | L 16-45 | 1-2 | 1-0 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #658 | #478 | — | Pacific Lutheran | L 6-14 | 1-3 | 1-1 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #650 | #503 | — | @Lewis & Clark | L 0-34 | 1-4 | 1-2 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #646 | #638 | — | Puget Sound | L 17-42 | 1-5 | 1-3 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #648 | #653 | Pacific (OR) | 4 pm ET57% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 30 | #648 | #528 | @George Fox | 10:05 pm ET4% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Whitworth | 3 pm ET3% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Linfield | 4 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Willamette, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Willamette: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Willamette has won one of its last five.
1-9 over the last 10, and lost the last four.
Streak L4Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 1-9
Range of outcomes · Willamette · 2026
Range of outcomes · Willamette · 2026Willamette’s most likely regular season is 2-8. 96% of outcomes land from 1-9 to 2-8.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 40%; 2 wins 56%; 3 wins 4%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor1-11Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base2-10Mid-table finish.
Ceiling5-7Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-5
Game feel41rock fightscombined pts / game7th highest-scoring of 8 in the Northwest
Heart rate1-1white-knucklein one-score games (2 of 6)1st most one-score games of 8 in the Northwest
Margin-18.7outgunnedavg scoring margin7th best margin of 8 in the Northwest
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Northwest teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
The Bearcats of Salem, Oregon, a founding member of the Northwest Conference whose football history runs more than a century deep and whose every fall turns on the rivalry with Linfield.
Standard GapAn old, proud Northwest program whose tradition outweighs its recent…
Willamette helped found the Northwest Conference in 1926 and has played football since the 1890s, but the modern story is written by Linfield down the road.
Game day
The experience
The Bearcats of Salem, Oregon, a founding member of the Northwest Conference whose football history runs more than a century deep and whose every fall turns on the rivalry with Linfield.
Playoff path
Willamette sits 6th in the Northwest Conference and 208th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Northwest · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lewis & Clark | 4-0 | 5-0 | 68.6 |
| 2 | Linfield | 3-0 | 4-1 | 65.0 |
| 3 | Whitworth | 2-1 | 3-2 | 59.3 |
| 4 | Pacific Lutheran | 2-1 | 3-3 | 50.1 |
| 5 | Puget Sound | 2-2 | 2-3 | 50.2 |
| 6 | Willamette | 1-3 | 1-5 | 36.8 |
| 7 | George Fox | 0-3 | 2-3 | 52.0 |
| 8 | Pacific (OR) | 0-4 | 0-6 | 32.0 |
36.8 CFB Zeitgeist#208 of 245 D349.9 strength of schedule
Win the Northwest Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 1-5
Signature win 6-3 over Pacific (OR); toughest day 0-34 against Lewis & Clark.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site