Next game
at Linfield
Sat Oct 24 · 4 pm ET
Maxwell Field · series 0-4, lost the last 4
Pacific Lutheran University 4% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Pacific Lutheran University
3-3Northwest · Sparks Stadium · 4,500 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 30-14 at Pacific (OR)
Our model gave Pacific Lutheran University 79% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Whitworth 35%
Win out <1% · expect 0.8 of 4 more wins
Pacific Lutheran University's chance to win each game left, from our model: Linfield 4%, Whitworth 35%, Lewis & Clark 12%, George Fox 30%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Linfield · our model 4% Pacific Lutheran University
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Pacific Lutheran University · 2026 schedule and results3-3Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 45%.Our rank entering each game: #471 to #522
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #471 | #578 | — | Cal Lutheran | W 37-30 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #472 | #432 | — | Mary Hardin Baylor | L 6-29 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #470 | #443 | — | @Trinity (TX) | L 6-24 | 1-2 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #478 | #658 | — | @Willamette | W 14-6 | 2-2 | 1-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #491 | #657 | — | Puget Sound | L 13-23 | 2-3 | 1-1 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #522 | #650 | — | @Pacific (OR) | W 30-14 | 3-3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #531 | #424 | @Linfield | 4 pm ET4% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #531 | #459 | Whitworth | 4 pm ET35% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Lewis & Clark | 4 pm ET12% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @George Fox | 4 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Pacific Lutheran University, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Pacific Lutheran University: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Pacific Lutheran University has won two of its last five.
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Streak W1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 5-5
Range of outcomes · Pacific Lutheran University · 2026
Range of outcomes · Pacific Lutheran University · 2026Pacific Lutheran University’s most likely regular season is 4-6. 98% of outcomes land from 3-7 to 5-5.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 38%; 4 wins 44%; 5 wins 16%; 6 wins 2%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor4-8Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base6-6Mid-table finish.
Ceiling9-3Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-3
Game feel39rock fightscombined pts / game8th highest-scoring of 8 in the Northwest
Heart rate2-0white-knucklein one-score games (2 of 6)2nd most one-score games of 8 in the Northwest
Margin-3.3competitiveavg scoring margin5th best margin of 8 in the Northwest
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Northwest teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Pacific Lutheran is a Christian liberal arts school in Tacoma whose Lutes have won four national championships — a program rooted in faith and sustained excellence in NWC.
Title DroughtSince 1999 · 27 yrs
Fans here believe no chip — Pacific Lutheran competes to honor the university and the conference.
Game day
The experience
Pacific Lutheran is a Christian liberal arts school in Tacoma whose Lutes have won four national championships — a program rooted in faith and sustained excellence in NWC.
Playoff path
Pacific Lutheran University sits 4th in the Northwest Conference and 123rd of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Northwest · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lewis & Clark | 4-0 | 5-0 | 68.6 |
| 2 | Linfield | 3-0 | 4-1 | 65.0 |
| 3 | Whitworth | 2-1 | 3-2 | 59.3 |
| 4 | Pacific Lutheran | 2-1 | 3-3 | 50.1 |
| 5 | Puget Sound | 2-2 | 2-3 | 50.2 |
| 6 | Willamette | 1-3 | 1-5 | 36.8 |
| 7 | George Fox | 0-3 | 2-3 | 52.0 |
| 8 | Pacific (OR) | 0-4 | 0-6 | 32.0 |
50.1 CFB Zeitgeist#123 of 245 D349.7 strength of schedule
Win the Northwest Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 3-3
Signature win 30-14 over Pacific (OR); toughest day 6-29 against Mary Hardin Baylor.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site