Next game
at McMurry
Sat Oct 24 · 2 pm ET
Wilford Moore Stadium · series 2-0, won the last 2
Mary Hardin-Baylor University 86% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Mary Hardin-Baylor University
5-1American Southwest · Crusader Stadium · 7,671 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 38-22 at Texas Wesleyan
Our model gave Mary Hardin-Baylor University 90% before kickoff
The rest of the season
One real test left: Hardin Simmons 41%
Win out 29% · expect 3.1 of 4 more wins
Mary Hardin-Baylor University's chance to win each game left, from our model: McMurry 86%, Schreiner 99%, East Texas Baptist 84%, Hardin Simmons 41%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at McMurry · our model 86% Mary Hardin-Baylor University
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Mary Hardin-Baylor University · 2026 schedule and results5-1Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 55%.Our rank entering each game: #432 to #419
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 | #432 | #505 | — | @Rowan | W 35-14 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #432 | #472 | — | @Pacific Lutheran | W 29-6 | 2-0 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #433 | #434 | — | Endicott | L 27-28 | 2-1 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #432 | #637 | — | Keystone | W 64-14 | 3-1 | 0-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #436 | #435 | — | Howard Payne | W 33-10 | 4-1 | 1-0 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #419 | — | — | @Texas Wesleyan | W 38-22 | 5-1 | 1-0 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #386 | #468 | @McMurry | 2 pm ET86% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #384 | Schreiner | 3 pm ET99% to win | |||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @East Texas Baptist | 2 pm ET84% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Hardin Simmons | 2 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Mary Hardin-Baylor University, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Mary Hardin-Baylor University: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Mary Hardin-Baylor University has won four of its last five.
9-1 over the last 10, and won the last three.
Streak W3Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 9-1
Range of outcomes · Mary Hardin-Baylor University · 2026
Range of outcomes · Mary Hardin-Baylor University · 2026Mary Hardin-Baylor University’s most likely regular season is 8-2. 99% of outcomes land from 7-3 to 9-1.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 1%; 7 wins 16%; 8 wins 53%; 9 wins 29%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor8-4Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base10-2Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling11-1Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-1
Game feel53rock fightscombined pts / game5th highest-scoring of 5 in the American Southwest
Heart rate0-1some dramain one-score games (1 of 6)4th most one-score games of 5 in the American Southwest
Margin+22.0competitiveavg scoring margin2nd best margin of 5 in the American Southwest
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among American Southwest teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Mary Hardin-Baylor is the Texas Division III dynasty that won national championships in 2018 and 2021, cementing itself as a title contender every year.
Title DroughtSince 2021 · 5 yrs
Fans here believe no chip — Mary Hardin-Baylor plays with the confidence of a proven champion.
Game day
The experience
Mary Hardin-Baylor is the Texas Division III dynasty that won national championships in 2018 and 2021, cementing itself as a title contender every year.
Playoff path
Mary Hardin-Baylor University sits 2nd in the American Southwest Conference and 18th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — in the projected field with a seedable rating.
American Southwest · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hardin Simmons | 2-0 | 5-0 | 73.4 |
| 2 | Mary Hardin Baylor | 1-0 | 5-1 | 67.5 |
| 3 | Howard Payne | 0-1 | 4-1 | 63.2 |
| 4 | McMurry | 0-1 | 2-3 | 52.0 |
| 5 | East Texas Baptist | 0-1 | 3-4 | 51.3 |
67.5 CFB Zeitgeist#18 of 245 D358.5 strength of schedule2 quality wins
Win the American Southwest Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 5-1
Signature win 64-14 over Keystone; toughest day 27-28 against Endicott.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site