Next game
at Nelson (TX)
Sat Oct 24 · 2 pm ET
Lumpkins Stadium · series 1-0
Hardin-Simmons University 97% to win · our ratings after 5 games
Hardin-Simmons University
5-0American Southwest · Shelton Stadium · 4,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 63-27 vs East Texas Baptist
Our model gave Hardin-Simmons University 90% before kickoff
The rest of the season
One real test left: Mary Hardin Baylor 59%
Win out 45% · expect 3.3 of 4 more wins
Hardin-Simmons University's chance to win each game left, from our model: Nelson (TX) 97%, Howard Payne 79%, Schreiner >99%, Mary Hardin Baylor 59%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Nelson (TX) · our model 97% Hardin-Simmons University
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Hardin-Simmons University · 2026 schedule and results5-0Our rank entering each game: #428 to #381
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #428 | #482 | — | Chapman | W 44-24 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #428 | #430 | — | @Wisconsin La Crosse | W 28-20 | 2-0 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #422 | — | — | UFTL | W 58-0 | 3-0 | 0-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #408 | #462 | — | @McMurry | W 48-17 | 4-0 | 1-0 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #381 | #461 | — | East Texas Baptist | W 63-27 | 5-0 | 2-0 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #347 | @Nelson (TX) | 2 pm ET97% to win | |||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #347 | #422 | @Howard Payne | 2 pm ET79% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Schreiner | 3 pm ET>99% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Mary Hardin Baylor | 2 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Hardin-Simmons University, through 5 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Hardin-Simmons University: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Sat Oct 24Next: Nelson (TX)at Nelson (TX) · on the road
Recent form · last 10 games
Hardin-Simmons University has won five straight.
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last five.
Streak W5Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 8-2
Range of outcomes · Hardin-Simmons University · 2026
Range of outcomes · Hardin-Simmons University · 2026Hardin-Simmons University’s most likely regular season is 9-0. 100% of outcomes land from 7-2 to 9-0.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 10%; 8 wins 45%; 9 wins 45%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor10-2Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base12-0Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling12-0Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 5 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-0
Game feel66even gamescombined pts / game2nd highest-scoring of 5 in the American Southwest
Heart rate1-0some dramain one-score games (1 of 5)2nd most one-score games of 5 in the American Southwest
Margin+30.6comfortableavg scoring margin1st best margin of 5 in the American Southwest
Measured from 5 games · ranks are among American Southwest teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Hardin-Simmons is the West Texas Baptist football power that has won three consecutive ASC titles (2023–2025) and rebuilt into a championship contender.
Title DroughtSince 2022 · 4 yrs
Fans here believe no chip — Hardin-Simmons is playing with the pride of a winning program and wants to stay on top.
Game day
The experience
Hardin-Simmons is the West Texas Baptist football power that has won three consecutive ASC titles (2023–2025) and rebuilt into a championship contender.
Playoff path
Hardin-Simmons University sits 1st in the American Southwest Conference and 7th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — in the projected field with a seedable rating.
American Southwest · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hardin Simmons | 2-0 | 5-0 | 73.4 |
| 2 | Mary Hardin Baylor | 1-0 | 5-1 | 67.5 |
| 3 | Howard Payne | 0-1 | 4-1 | 63.2 |
| 4 | McMurry | 0-1 | 2-3 | 52.0 |
| 5 | East Texas Baptist | 0-1 | 3-4 | 51.3 |
73.4 CFB Zeitgeist#7 of 245 D354.8 strength of schedule1 quality win
Win the American Southwest Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 5-0
Signature win 58-0 over UFTL; toughest day 28-20 against Wisconsin La Crosse.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site