Next game
vs McMurry
Sat Oct 31 · 2 pm ET
Ornelas Stadium · series 2-0, won the last 2
East Texas Baptist University 60% to win · our ratings after 7 games
East Texas Baptist University
3-4American Southwest · Ornelas Stadium · 2,046 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 27-63 at Hardin Simmons
Our model gave East Texas Baptist University 10% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Mary Hardin Baylor 16%, Howard Payne 24%, McMurry 60%
Win out 2% · expect 1.0 of 3 more wins
East Texas Baptist University's chance to win each game left, from our model: McMurry 60%, Mary Hardin Baylor 16%, Howard Payne 24%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs McMurry · our model 60% East Texas Baptist University
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
East Texas Baptist University · 2026 schedule and results3-4Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 58%.Our rank entering each game: #517 to #461
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #517 | #520 | — | @Lyon | W 58-7 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #507 | #496 | — | @Belhaven | L 44-45 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #504 | #618 | — | Centenary (LA) | W 46-14 | 2-1 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #504 | #479 | — | Texas Lutheran | L 54-61 | 2-2 | 0-0 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #510 | — | — | @Louisiana Christian | L 36-50 | 2-3 | 0-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #484 | — | — | Schreiner | W 62-28 | 3-3 | 0-0 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #461 | #381 | — | @Hardin Simmons | L 27-63 | 3-4 | 0-1 | |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #471 | #467 | McMurry | 2 pm ET60% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Mary Hardin Baylor | 2 pm ET16% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Howard Payne | 2 pm ET24% to win | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for East Texas Baptist University, through 7 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for East Texas Baptist University: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
What’s ahead
Off this week
7 days
until kickoff · vs McMurry · Sat Oct 31 · 2 pm ET
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
East Texas Baptist University has won two of its last five.
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 3-7
Range of outcomes · East Texas Baptist University · 2026
Range of outcomes · East Texas Baptist University · 2026East Texas Baptist University’s most likely regular season is 4-6. 98% of outcomes land from 3-7 to 5-5.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 26%; 4 wins 51%; 5 wins 21%; 6 wins 2%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor3-9Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base5-7Mid-table finish.
Ceiling8-4Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 7 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-4
Game feel85shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 5 in the American Southwest
Heart rate0-2white-knucklein one-score games (2 of 7)1st most one-score games of 5 in the American Southwest
Margin+8.4competitiveavg scoring margin4th best margin of 5 in the American Southwest
Measured from 7 games · ranks are among American Southwest teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
The Tigers of East Texas Baptist University in Marshall — a faith-rooted American Southwest Conference program with two league titles, chasing the top of an ASC dominated by Texas D3 powers from Ornelas Stadium.
Title DroughtSince 2015 · 11 yrs
East Texas Baptist has won the ASC twice — and gets overshadowed by the conference's national powers as if Marshall, Texas doesn't produce real football.
Game day
The experience
The Tigers of East Texas Baptist University in Marshall — a faith-rooted American Southwest Conference program with two league titles, chasing the top of an ASC dominated by Texas D3 powers from Ornelas Stadium.
Playoff path
East Texas Baptist University sits 5th in the American Southwest Conference and 116th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
American Southwest · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hardin Simmons | 2-0 | 5-0 | 73.4 |
| 2 | Mary Hardin Baylor | 1-0 | 5-1 | 67.5 |
| 3 | Howard Payne | 0-1 | 4-1 | 63.2 |
| 4 | McMurry | 0-1 | 2-3 | 52.0 |
| 5 | East Texas Baptist | 0-1 | 3-4 | 51.3 |
51.3 CFB Zeitgeist#116 of 245 D352.9 strength of schedule
Win the American Southwest Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 3-4
Signature win 58-7 over Lyon; toughest day 27-63 against Hardin Simmons.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
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