Next game
vs Mary Hardin Baylor
Sat Oct 24 · 2 pm ET
Wilford Moore Stadium · series 0-2, lost the last 2
McMurry University 14% to win · our ratings after 5 games
McMurry University
2-3American Southwest · Wilford Moore Stadium · 3,550 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 10
L 17-48 vs Hardin Simmons
Our model gave McMurry University 30% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Mary Hardin Baylor 14%, Howard Payne 30%, East Texas Baptist 40%
Win out 1% · expect 1.6 of 4 more wins
McMurry University's chance to win each game left, from our model: Mary Hardin Baylor 14%, East Texas Baptist 40%, Howard Payne 30%, Schreiner 78%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Mary Hardin Baylor · our model 14% McMurry University
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 6
Schedule and results
McMurry University · 2026 schedule and results2-3Our rank entering each game: #453 to #462
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #453 | #541 | — | @Southwestern U | W 36-26 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #454 | #443 | — | @Trinity (TX) | L 17-31 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #453 | #478 | — | Huntingdon | W 42-16 | 2-1 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #453 | #538 | — | @Dubuque | L 28-35 | 2-2 | 0-0 | |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | #462 | #408 | — | Hardin Simmons | L 17-48 | 2-3 | 0-1 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #465 | Westgate Christian University | 1 pm ET51% to win | |||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | #468 | #386 | Mary Hardin Baylor | 2 pm ET14% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #467 | #471 | @East Texas Baptist | 2 pm ET40% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Howard Payne | 2 pm ET | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Schreiner | 4 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for McMurry University, through 5 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for McMurry University: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
What’s ahead
Live
Live now
vs Westgate Christian University · Sat Oct 17 · 1 pm ET
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Sat Oct 17Next: Westgate Christian Universityvs Westgate Christian University · at home
Recent form · last 10 games
McMurry University has won two of its last five.
6-4 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Streak L2Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 6-4
Range of outcomes · McMurry University · 2026
Range of outcomes · McMurry University · 2026McMurry University’s most likely regular season is 4-6. 88% of outcomes land from 3-7 to 5-5.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 4%; 3 wins 23%; 4 wins 39%; 5 wins 26%; 6 wins 7%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor3-9Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base5-7Mid-table finish.
Ceiling8-4Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 5 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-3
Game feel59even gamescombined pts / game3rd highest-scoring of 5 in the American Southwest
Heart rate0-1some dramain one-score games (1 of 5)3rd most one-score games of 5 in the American Southwest
Margin-3.2outgunnedavg scoring margin5th best margin of 5 in the American Southwest
Measured from 5 games · ranks are among American Southwest teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
McMurry is the Abilene, Texas Methodist college that just won back-to-back SCAC titles (2024–2025) before joining the ASC in 2026–27.
Title DroughtSince 2020 · 6 yrs
Fans here believe no chip — McMurry is playing with earned confidence from two consecutive SCAC championships.
Game day
The experience
McMurry is the Abilene, Texas Methodist college that just won back-to-back SCAC titles (2024–2025) before joining the ASC in 2026–27.
Playoff path
McMurry University sits 4th in the American Southwest Conference and 108th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
American Southwest · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hardin Simmons | 2-0 | 5-0 | 73.4 |
| 2 | Mary Hardin Baylor | 1-0 | 5-1 | 67.5 |
| 3 | Howard Payne | 0-1 | 4-1 | 63.2 |
| 4 | McMurry | 0-1 | 2-3 | 52.0 |
| 5 | East Texas Baptist | 0-1 | 3-4 | 51.3 |
52.0 CFB Zeitgeist#108 of 245 D359.0 strength of schedule1 quality win
Win the American Southwest Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 2-3
Signature win 42-16 over Huntingdon; toughest day 17-48 against Hardin Simmons.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site